X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Fastball Run Values (Week 13)

The news regarding MLB's unexpected crackdown on foreign substances has been well-documented by now. It will surely have a negative impact on pitchers, but the effect on hitters may largely depend on their batted-ball profile.

The pitch that has seen the biggest discrepancy for the top aces due to increased spin rates is the good old four-seamer. Everyone throws in the mid-to-high 90s these days. What separates a good fastball from a mediocre one is its movement which is generated by spin. We won't get technical here because the focus is supposed to be on hitters, after all. Instead, let's examine some of the top hitters in terms of run value by how well (or poorly) they hit the fastball. It might be interesting to check in later this year and see how this data has changed.

All Statcast metrics are current as of June 21, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

Featured Promo: Get ANY MLB Premium Pass for 10% off the regular price with code BALLER. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Fastball Run Value Studs

Vladito and Shotime are hitting the snot out of the four-seamer, which should come as no surprise. We've previously covered Jesse Winker and Brandon Crawford in this series. So let's focus on some of the most unexpected names at the top of the leaderboard to see if they can sustain their success.

Chris Taylor, L.A. Dodgers

Taylor has been an essential cog in the Dodgers' lineup with injuries to Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager taking their tolls. He's responded with one of his best seasons so far with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 53 R, seven SB and a solid .266/.386/.464 slash line. His walk rate has been escalating the past few years and is at a career-best 13.9%, one of the tops in the majors. For the most part, his bread-and-butter has been hitting the fastball well. Curveballs are the only other individual pitch that he's batted over .300 against in multiple seasons over his career. His .280 AVG on fastballs is low compared to .340 last year and .316 the year before. His slugging rate on four-seamers keep rising though.

Taylor has upped his game against breaking stuff, batting an adequate .246 AVG on them after dwelling below .200 the past two seasons. He is the type of well-balanced player that gives you a little bit of everything in roto leagues and seems to be getting a little better with age.

Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Reynolds has quietly been solid all season long for a terrible team. With little lineup support, he's still managed to cross the plate 41 times and drive in 36 runs along with 12 homers. Most notably, he's rebounded massively in the average category, and not just against fastballs. Out of all the outliers in 2020, his might be the most out there.

The biggest rebound is a leap above his rookie-season success against fastballs, where he's now posting a .317 xBA and 46.9% Hard Hit rate. His overall Hard% is just 37.6% and he has just two homers against any other pitch type, whereas the other 10 HR all came against fastballs. Reynolds is seeing fastballs 52% of the time, surprisingly, which is a benefit of having no other threats behind you in the batting order. The counting stats might end up being sufficient to keep him as a fantasy OF3 if he keeps his average up near the .300 mark.

Steven Duggar, San Francisco Giants

Although Mitch Haniger shows up at 15th, Duggar and seven others are tied with him at a run value of eight. Duggar has the highest run value per 100 plate appearances, though and his 4.4 RV/100 is 12th-highest in the league. Any guess who's #1 in that category? It's actually Jacob deGrom, who's got a .406 xBA on opposing pitchers' fastballs this year. Let's just hand him the Cy Young and MVP awards right now.

Back to Duggar, he's joined veteran teammates Crawford and Evan Longoria as some of the best against the four-seamer this year. Duggar is crushing it with a .463 AVG and .806 SLG, supported by a .330 xBA and .660 xSLG vs fastballs.

Here's the rub: he stinks against everything else. Duggar is hitting .147 against breaking balls and .063 against offspeed pitches. If opponents read the book on Duggar, you'd think he would never see another fastball again. This is a bad sign for a precipitous drop in his production once he begins getting attacked smarter by pitchers. Stream him for now but don't count on him as a long-term asset.

 

Fastball Run Value Duds

Some of these players like Austin Hedges have no business being on fantasy rosters, but there are some names on here that had fairly high draft stock in the preseason. Can these players turn things around or have we seen enough to stay away?

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

File this under the "season-long stats can be misleading" category. Gurriel got off to a putrid start, slashing .224/.256/.316 in April. He has steadily improved since and has his current slash line at .255/.275/.397. That's not great, but he's been playable in fantasy for the past couple of weeks at least. While his allergy to walks has gotten worse, his RBI potential in a stacked Jays lineup is still too tempting to pass up.

Be cautious, however, as he may be on the downslide again. His struggles against the fastball seem to be coming back. His xBA vs four-seamers has actually gone down each month and his xwOBA is back down near April values.

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

If there's one detail that we could point to in identifying Torres' struggles, it would less effectiveness versus four-seamers. The early book was that he only feasted on fastballs and couldn't hit breaking stuff. Now the tables are turned. Perhaps in an effort to be a more well-rounded hitter, he's lost his greatest tool. Torres' main appeal is power, so let's examine his slugging percentage by pitch group over the years:

Right after his breakout 2019 campaign he fell off in nearly every facet, but we see his slugging has rebounded greatly against breaking balls. It keeps getting worse for fastballs. Torres went from a .293 xBA and .698 xSLG against four-seamers in 2019 to a .203 xBA and .406 xSLG in 2021. For a player who is only 24 years old, this type of drop-off is alarming. It's great that he is hitting the slider better, but until he can consistently flex power against the most commonly-seen pitch type, we can't ignore the red flags.

Matt Chapman, Oakland A's

Chapman is the last of our sluggers whose power has evaporated in 2021. After three straight years living among the league leaders in exit velocity with an average mark over 92.7 MPH, he's down to 88.9 this year. He's not someone you target for average, which is arguably a less-important area than most seasons. However, his .225 AVG is becoming a category sink. It also marks the third straight season his batting average has dropped, with a .210 xBA in the fifth percentile.

The culprit? You guessed it - four-seamers. Chapman is hitting a mere .145 against the pitch this season, simply because he is chasing and missing more.

This explains why his 40.7% Whiff rate against four-seamers is sixth-worst among those with at least 50 PA. Chapman is a strikeout machine who is not generating enough power in return. Matt Olson was able to correct his issues from 2020 but Chapman doesn't appear primed to do the same and should be benched in most leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford6 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White6 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl8 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon8 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter8 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic8 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio8 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday8 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton8 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid8 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert9 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James9 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis9 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama9 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards9 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell9 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith9 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks10 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green10 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson10 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson10 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman10 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray10 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar10 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams10 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo10 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres11 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard11 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson11 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer12 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia12 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen12 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers12 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers12 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers13 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar13 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark14 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers14 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB14 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels14 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB14 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby14 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith15 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds15 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti16 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga16 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain16 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim16 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA16 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry16 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox17 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak17 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan18 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg18 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn18 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby18 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin18 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord19 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala19 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark19 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler20 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser20 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder20 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen20 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama20 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin20 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray1 day ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT1 day ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn1 day ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield1 day ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR1 day ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras1 day ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen1 day ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Top-200 Fantasy Football Rankings - Post Free Agency Edition

Fantasy football drafts are still five months away, but rankings and how fantasy managers value all of the players are constantly changing. With the better part of free agency in the rearview mirror and the best players on their new teams, we can re-evaluate our rankings to see which players have moved up and down.... Read More


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Deshaun Watson- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

The NFL offseason has been scorching hot. It's been fun to watch. While redraft fantasy football players have been able to put their feet up and relax, dynasty players know their work never stops. With major signings and big names on the move, the start of the offseason is one of the busiest times of... Read More


NFL DRAFT - Bold Predictions Round 2 2024

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 2

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire in this year's edition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the second round of the draft. Don't forget to check out... Read More


UFL SCHEDULE - Fantasy Football, 2024

2024 UFL Schedule (United Football League): Full 10-Game Schedule For Each Team

Check out the full 2024 UFL schedule for each team in the United Football League. The inaugural season of the UFL begins on March 30, and the first year of the XFL-USFL merger should be a fun one to keep tabs on. Each team will play ten regular season games before a four-team playoff consisting... Read More