Which Pitchers With New Pitch Usage Should We Care About? Part Seven

Eric evaluates fantasy baseball starting pitchers who have developed new pitches. Part 7 of this series determines if these additions to their pitch mix will increase fantasy baseball value and make them breakout performers.

One of the things we are constantly reading about during the early stages of the baseball season is pitchers adding new pitches or making major changes to their pitch usage. However, as the season goes on, those changes can be abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So it's important to continue to track these new pitch or pitch mix developments throughout the first months regular season to see what is here to stay and what is just a passing fad.

So far, I have covered some of those potential changes over the course of four articles already. Check them out here: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, and Part 6.

As with the other versions, the working premise of this article is simply that a pitcher throwing a pitch more isn't always a good thing. If it's similar to a pitch the pitcher already throws or is used to target the same area of the plate then it doesn't always add anything to the arsenal and may even take away from the effectiveness of a pitch he already throws. So instead of blindly celebrating that some pitchers are throwing a certain pitch more, we need to look at whether or not it makes the pitcher any more effective. From there I tried to give you a simple verdict as to whether we should care about this new development or not.

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Garrett Richards, Boston Red Sox

Fastball and Curve

For years, we've always thought of Richards as having all the potential in the world but being snakebitten with injuries. Now that Richards is healthy and pitching, I expected to see more excitement surrounding him, but people appear to be hesitant. Perhaps it's because his home ballpark is scaring people off or maybe it's because this doesn't seem like the same pitcher. Many people have long loved Richards because of his slider, which has been his second most-used pitch since 2013.

Since 2015 (the years we can see in the below image), the slider has been Richards' best pitch. According to Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard, it has registered a  20.5% swinging strike rate (SwStr) and 37% CSW with a 1.94 deserved ERA (dERA). However, this year, Richards has really cut back on his slider usage in favor of his curveball.

While many are down on this move, I don't mind it. Since the Red Sox have Nick Pivetta throwing his slider way more than he has in years past, we know that they aren't steering their pitchers away from the slider as an organization. That means Richards is using his slider less either because it hasn't been as effective (partially true) or perhaps because the Red Sox, who are certainly analytically-inclined, think adding in the curveball more will actually help his performance. I tend to agree with the latter sentiment.

The slider is still Richards' second most-used pitch, but it's not as if the curveball has been bad for him over the years. In that same period from 2015 through 2020, the curve had a 12.6% SwStr and a 0.54 dERA. That's much better than the 5.71 dERA that he had been getting from the sinker, his former third pitch. Now, Richards only threw 254 curves over that period, as opposed to 998 sliders, which were his most used pitch, but a 0.54 dERA on 254 pitches is still something worth taking note of. In addition, the curve is also a strong pairing with the four-seam fastball, since it almost perfectly mirrors the pitch. I think by becoming more of a fastball-slider-curve pitcher, Richards is allowing both his fastball and curveball to play up.

We can see the results bearing fruit too. This season, Richard's curveball is his best pitch by CSW, coming in at 31.8% compared to the slider's 21.3%. The curveball also has a 13.9% SwStr, which is in line with the sliders 14.2% SwStr, and a 2.32 dERA, compared to the 5.51 dERA of the slider. So by most metrics, the curveball actually seems like a better pitch for Richards right now. I expect that even when Richards gets the feel back for his slider, the curve will remain as a solid second breaking ball.

VERDICT

Marginally impactful. I think some of this has to do with Richards not having the feel for the slider, and that is still his best swing-and-miss pitch, so we want him to get a comfort level back with that pitch. However, I think that the increase in curve usage is good for him and will make him a more consistent pitcher over the course of the season.

Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs

Slider

When you open Alzolay's Statcast page, one thing jumps out at you immediately:

That is a DRASTIC increase in slider usage. It's not simply altering the use of one pitch though; changing the use of the slider that much has overhauled his entire arsenal in a way. The curveball is now basically non-existent, and the four-seam fastball has taken more of a backseat to the sinker-slider combo, which you can see below (even though it's labeled as a two-seamer)

The overlay above shows how well the slider and sinker tunnel, but this image adds the fastball to the mix as well:

The off-white dots in the back are the recognition point, and you can see how the slider would appear at a slightly different angle to a right-handed hitter, while the sinker and four-seamer are almost impossible to decipher. Then, when the pitches get to the commitment point, in pink, when the hitter needs to make up his mind to swing, all three pitches are at nearly the same point. As a result, Alzolay's pitch mix has become far more deceptive than when he was primarily using a curve. Even though the slider doesn't end up in a vastly different part of the strike zone than the four-seam and sinker, the difference is enough to induce weak contact or miss bats, considering the pitch is also almost eight MPH slower than the fastball.

So Alzolay's arsenal is different, but is it better? Yes. The 26-year-old has a 29.6% CSW, similar to last year, but has seen his SwStr% jump to 11.9%. A lot of that is on the back of the slider, which has a 20.5% SwStr and 36.6% CSW. The pitch also has a .217 xBA and .365 xSLG, so it is clearly his best offering and throwing it as much as he does is something we should be fans of. However, because of the aforementioned deception, the reliance on the slider has also led to improvements in his four-seam fastball, which has a .182 average and 28.3% whiff rate compared to a .333 average and 20.8% whiff rate last year. The pitch is still getting hit hard when contact is made, as is the sinker, so I'd love to see Alzolay add back in the changeup a little bit more since it has been solid for him so far this year and pairs well with the sinker.

VERDICT

Hugely impactful. Really, the slider is the only thing saving Alzolay right now. It's been a dynamic pitch for him, and the rest of his arsenal has just been OK. I think that's going to cause him to be a little bit up-and-down this season unless he can also get that changeup working a little more and keep hitters off of the four-seam and sinker, which have been giving up a lot of hard contact (and home runs).

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros

Cutter

I covered Luis Garcia in the video breakdown below:

VERDICT:

Significantly impactful. The increased cutter usage has been huge for Garcia since it is far-and-away his best swing and miss pitch. Without an over-powering fastball, he'll need to rely on the cutter-slider combo to continue to miss bats and induce soft contact. I like the pairing, which is why I like Garcia to remain useful all season. Just be prepared that some of that may come out of the bullpen to keep his innings down.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Slider and Sinker

A few things stand out when you look at Wheeler's pitch mix this year: the increased four-seam usage, the diminished sinker, and, perhaps most importantly, the increased reliance on the slider.

Wheeler's uptick is slider usage is perhaps most interesting because he also changed his slider this year, throwing the pitch 1.5 MPH harder and with less vertical and horizontal movement. In a sense, Wheeler has changed his slider into more of a cutter, as we can see in the tweet below:

To put it in another context, look at how the slider approaches the plate at a similar trajectory to the sinker and four-seam, but a deviation of 105 on the clock image below, which the sinker has a -45 degree deviation in the other direction. It's just another visual to suggest how the fastball-sinker-slider combo can be deceptive to a hitter.

With the slider acting more as a cutter, Wheeler also doesn't need to rely on his sinker anymore as a variation of his four-seam fastball. That's been a good thing for Wheeler's strikeout numbers because, while the sinker has been a strong pitch for Wheeler in the past, it has never really missed many bats, usually hovering around a 15% whiff rate. This season, the sinker has a 2.82 dERA and only a 2.2% barrel rate allowed but also has a 21.5% CSW. Basically, it's a good pitch for suppressing quality contact, but it has never allowed Wheeler to miss enough bats which is what it would take for him to improve to the next step as a fantasy arm.

However, the slider is doing that. The pitch currently has a .180 xBA, .348 xSLG, 33% whiff rate, and 30.1% CSW. It's 18% swinging strike rate is also the highest among pitches that Wheeler throws consistently, making it his best consistent put-away pitch. It's the main reason that Wheeler has seen his SwStr jump from 10.8% to 13.1% and his CSW rise from 23.6% to a career-high 29.5%.

VERDICT

Reasonably impactful. Wheeler was a good pitcher before, but the slider (which also registers a 2.02 dERA) has been made him a more dynamic pitcher. The fastball-sinker-slider combination gives Wheeler three hard pitches with the sinker and slider diving in different directions to give Wheeler a nice triangle of movement creates solid deception and improved swing-and-miss ability.

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