Which Pitchers With New Pitches Should We Care About? Part Three

April 10, 2021

Eric Samulski continues evaluating starting pitchers who have developed new pitches for 2021 to determine if these additions to their pitch mix will increase fantasy baseball value and make them breakout performers.

Throughout all Spring Training, we hear about pitching adding new pitches, or making major changes to their pitch usage. We even get to see those new pitches in action and dream about their potential impact. I even covered some of those potential changes here and here.

However, when the regular season starts, sometimes those changes are all but abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So it's important to continue to track these new pitch or pitch mix developments into the regular season to see what is here to stay and what is just a passing fad.

As with the other versions, the working premise of this article is simply that a new pitch isn't always a good thing. If it is just the same as a pitch the pitcher already throws or is used to target the same area of the plate then it doesn't add anything to the arsenal and may even take away from the effectiveness of a pitch he already throws. So instead of blindly celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, we need to look at whether or not it makes the pitcher any more effective. From there I tried to give you a simple verdict as to whether we should care about this new toy or not. Be sure to also check out the rest of my articles in this "Pitchers With New Pitches" series for analysis and deep dives on more starting pitchers.

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros - Slider

Not only did McCullers introduce a slider in his first start of 2021, but it immediately became his most used pitch, throwing it 35.8% of the time. The pitch was pretty effective in its debut as well, leading to only three Batted Ball Events on 34 pitches and registering a .027 xBA, 0.35 SLG, and .095 xwOBA. McCullers was also able to get six strikeouts on the pitch as it had a 40% whiff rate and 50% CSW.

McCullers used the pitch almost exclusively against right-handed hitters, with only one of the 34 pitches being to a lefty. In its place, McCullers seemed to throw his curveball strictly to lefties, with all 16 curves being thrown to left-handed hitters, and then the change-up as a distant third pitch to both types of hitters.

It's a drastic change for McCullers who, prior to his arm injury in 2018 was a curveball-heavy pitcher.

It's possible that McCullers and team doctors determined that the curveball was putting increased strain on his arm, but it's also possible that McCullers preferred the tunneling achieved by the slider and sinker combo. By throwing the slider hard (86.7 MPH) and with little vertical drop, the pitch travels on a similar trajectory to the sinker for longer, which is why it might be a pretty effective pitch against right-handers.

With McCullers' infamous curveball still a weapon against left-handed hitters, this new pitch mix may allow McCullers to correct some of the reverse-splits issues mentioned in the tweet above. Regardless, a 50% CSW on any pitch is worth taking note of, so, for one start at least, this appears to be a change we can get excited about.

VERDICT:

Potentially a drastic change. Listen, the last time we saw a full season of Lance McCullers he was a curveball-sinker pitcher with a mid-20% strikeout rate and a .251 batting average given up to righties. Even then, we were dreaming of his potential. This one start hints at the possibility that the key to unlocking that potential was a change to his pitch mix. Keep an eye on this because McCullers has all the ability to be a top-20 arm if this works out.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers - Splitter

For most of the offseason, we heard about Tarik Skubal learning a splitter from his teammate, Casey Mize. Considering Mize's splitter is filthy, it was easy to get excited.

The plan appeared to be that the left-handed Skubal would use the splitter in place of the changeup as a pitch to attack right-handed hitters. In 2020, Skubal threw the changeup 16.4% of the time (2nd amongst his pitches) and all 97 changeups were thrown to right-handed batters. The pitch had a 4.69 deserved ERA (dERA), .259 xBA, and .580 xSLG, so it makes sense that Skubal was looking for something more impactful. Conceivably, a splitter that dove down and away from right-handed hitters would pair well with his slider, and, most importantly, Skubal wouldn't need to attack righties with his four-seamer 59% of the time.

However, his early attempts to integrate the splitter haven't gone too well.

Considering Skubal also struggled with the command of his slider in his first start, there is a certain desire to write it all off as a bad outing. However, control of the secondary pitches has always been an issue for him. While the splitter, especially one like Mize's, would be a great addition to his arsenal, Skubal really just needs a pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes beside his fastball. It's really hard to succeed as a starter in the major leagues when you throw 60% four-seam fastballs.

VERDICT:

No impact. We need to see Skubal be able to throw this pitch for a strike before we buy into it having any impact on his arsenal. In theory, the pitch would be impactful for him, and he certainly needs a consistent third pitch; however, this isn't it...yet.

Jeff Hoffman, Cincinnati Reds - Slider

Let's consider this a re-introduction and not a true introduction. The slider had previously been a part of Hoffman's arsenal and was even his second most-used pitch back in 2018. However, he was phasing it out in 2019, his last year as a starter, throwing only 12 total, and then didn't use it at all last year as a reliever.

The pitch was moderately effective for him before he abandoned it, registering a 3.76 dERA, 31.8% CSW, and 70.4% poor contact in his first three seasons. Over that time, he only threw the pitch 195 times, but it was back in full effect during his first start of 2021. Hoffman threw it 20.8% of the time, his second most-used pitch. It led to zero Batted Ball Events while registering a 60% whiff rate; however, it only had a 19% CSW.

As you can see above, a major reason for the low CSW for Hoffman is that he had trouble locating the slider. He had zero called strikes and only five swings across 16 pitches. The tweet below explains how Hoffman has taken a little velocity off of the slider and added more vertical movement to the slider while removing almost all run across the plate. This is obviously meant to make it pair better with his curve, but he's going to need to show that he can throw the slider for strikes in order for it to truly help.

Considering the changeup, which Hoffman threw 27.3% of the time as a reliever last year, was not particularly good. However, we also know that Coors Field has a clear impact on breaking balls due to the thin air, so Hoffman's arsenal (particularly the use of his curve and slider) may continue to develop as he gets used to life outside of Coors. Since the curveball was a good pitch for him in Coors, it stands to reason that it might get even better outside of Coors which would lessen the need for the slider or change to be anything other than average to slightly above-average.

VERDICT:

Moderately impactful. If Hoffman is going to remain in the rotation, he needs to consistent third pitch. The curveball has been fairly solid for him over the years, but the changeup has not. The addition of a good slider would still leave Hoffman open to problems against left-handed hitters but could make him strong enough against righties to be counted on in deeper fantasy leagues.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox - Curve

Most of us had written off Carlos Rodon after having Tommy John surgery in 2019 and then only throwing 7.2 innings last year while dealing with left shoulder soreness. However, Rodon emerged out of the pack to claim the White Sox's fifth starter job and put together an impressive spring. While many people focused on the fact that Rodon's velocity was back (which is undoubtedly crucial) there was also an interesting little nugget from his manager:

Wait, Rodon doesn't have a curve. He's never had a curve. Even if you check the log from his first start of the 2021 season (five shutout innings against the Mariners), he doesn't seem to have thrown one curve. Only, he pretty clearly was mixing in a curve:

Interesting. The slider has always been a wipeout pitch for Rodon, with a .150 batting average against, 45.1% strikeout rate, and 29.9% CSW for his career. His career dERA on the slider is 0.92, and it has a deserved barrel rate of only 3.4%. It's nasty, and the curve tunnels well enough with it that those two pitches should be effective for Rodon, who is clearly trying to shape an arsenal around his best pitch, which is, well, a really smart thing to do. Considering that Rodon was also consistently above 95 MPH with his fastball in the first start, something he is never actually done in his major league career, this is all intriguing.

The biggest issue for his breakout will be the changeup. The curve-slider combo is great against lefties, but he needs something that will move away from right-handed hitters, and he no longer throws his sinker. The change has not been a good pitch for him, with a career 5.17 dERA and 22.2% CSW despite only a 2.7% deserved barrel rate and 87.5 MPH exit velocity against with a 6.2-degree launch angle. He doesn't need that to be a strikeout pitch with a fastball that hits 98 and that combo of breaking pitches, but he needs to be able to throw it to righties to get groundballs or attack a different part of the plate. He only threw six changeups in his first start, so we haven't yet seen if he can do that yet.

VERDICT:

Conditionally impactful. I love the addition of the curve for Rodon and think it can be an important pitch for him. However, if he doesn't show a passable changeup then the addition of the curve will only give Rodon a slightly higher floor as opposed to revealing the tantalizing ceiling that we've been dreaming of for years.

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