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Eric Samulski continues evaluating starting pitchers who have developed new pitches for 2021 to determine if these additions to their pitch mix will increase fantasy baseball value and make them breakout performers.
Spring Training is coming to a close, and we're inching closer to getting to the "real thing." That means an opportunity to see which players' offseason changes can lead to true breakouts or perhaps which guys will fall back on old habits. As the games have been going on, I've been keeping track of pitchers who have added new pitches and trying to watch their outings in the spring to see if the new pitch is something we should get excited about or not. Last week I covered five guys, so today we'll do five more.
The working premise of this article is simply that a new pitch isn't always a good thing. If it is just the same as a pitch the pitcher already throws or is used to target the same area of the plate then it doesn't add anything to the arsenal and may even take away from the effectiveness of a pitch he already throws. So instead of blindly celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, we need to look at whether or not it makes the pitcher any more effective.
I've created some videos using the camera angles we have at our disposal (which are not all great) to show how the new pitch should work in tandem with the pitches that the pitcher already throws. From there I tried to give you a simple verdict as to whether we should care about this new toy or not. Be sure to also check out the rest of my articles in this "Pitchers With New Pitches" series for analysis and deep dives on more starting pitchers.
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Kenta Maeda - Curve
Over the last two years, Maeda has drastically cut down on his four-seam fastball usage, becoming one of the rare pitchers who rely heavily on strictly off-speed pitches. The slider and change-up make up 68% of his usage. He uses those pitches to attack opposite corners of the plate, and they both are impressive swing-and-miss pitches with the slider having a 19.2% SwtSr in 2020 and 34.6% CSW while the changeup had a ridiculous 26.4% SwStr and a 32.1% CSW.
So where does the curveball fit in? Well, in our limited sample size, he seems to use it as a strike pitch to attack down and in on righties. In fact, Maeda has said as much:
Now we can also see it in action:
With more 12-6 break and less sweep, it has a different shape than the previous version of his curve. The added "hump" on this curve almost makes it seem like the pitch hangs in the air before darting down in the zone. This version seems to have less horizontal break than the version he was throwing (albeit only 3.4% of the time) in 2020. This new shape even further differentiates the curve from the other pitches in his arsenal and gives the batter an entirely new shape to adjust to.
Considering the pitch appears to primarily be used down in the zone and away from lefties, it can also make it harder for them to adjust to the change-up when Maeda goes back to it as an outpitch. For instance, if a hitter thinks Maeda is going to throw him a pitch away because he just wasted a fastball up, that pitch away had just been a change-up before, now it might be a changeup or a curve, so the batter can't sit on a particular look.
Since Maeda's fastball only sits at 91.6 MPH and his sinker has been only marginally effective in its limited use over the last couple of seasons, the curveball would be an intriguing fourth pitch that would keep hitters off of the fastball and help Maeda get into counts where he can use that slider-changeup combination to get outs.
VERDICT:
Minimally impactful. I was already high on Maeda this year, and this certainly doesn't change that. However, I don't think this will drastically change him as a pitcher. If anything, this will give him another offering that can help him as he sees lineups a second or third time in one game.
Aaron Civale - Change-up
Civale's new pitch is a new iteration of a pitch he already threw (albeit only 9.2% of the time last year). Here's the philosophy in his own words: “I’m transitioning to a split-change from a changeup. Just a little bit better pairing with the pitches that I currently have. There’s some shortening of the arm path for timing, sequence. There’s a few things that are visibly different. Once we get into games I’m sure you’ll be able to see some of it. It’s a good transition. Pretty smooth.”
He's right that there are a few things that are visibly different:
The new split-change has a touch less velocity than his pitch last year but, as you can see above, bites down harder in the zone and even seems to have more horizontal movement (when he has it working). While we have no specific spin data so far, last year's changeup had 28.7 inches of vertical drop and -45 deviation (seen below). This new pitch will likely register significantly more drop and more deviation based on Observed Movement, which will differentiate it even more from the sinker, which could add deception.
As the graphic shows, Civale's sinker and change-up approach the hitter on a similar trajectory, but the new change-up will feature more deviation towards 4 o'clock. Since the curveball mirrors the sinker pretty well, a changeup that has more splitter movement will mean that Civale's four main pitches will have an observed movement at 2 o'clock, 4 o'clock, 7 o'clock, and 11 o'clock. That gives him an arsenal that can attack all areas of the strike zone with divergent types of movement. He would also have multiple pitches that either mirror each other or move in directly oppositional ways, which is something we love to see.
It's hard not to trust the Indians with pitcher development, and I think they and Civale are right that this new pitch could be a major boost for him.
VERDICT:
Unsure but potentially a meaningful impact. This would be a solid addition for Civale if he can master the pitch. In addition to those clips above, I watched a bunch more change-ups that hung in the zone, including one that Donovan Solano pounded out of the ballpark. If Civale can't get the consistent break, the pitch will continue to get hit hard, and he's back to a three-pitch pitcher. It'll take a few starts to see how consistent he can be with the pitch, but if early returns are good, this would bump Civale up in my rankings a bit.
Zach Plesac - Curveball
Let's move over to Civale's teammate, who also spent the offseason tweaking an existing pitch: “I just really worked on the curveball,” said Plesac. “If I can land the curveball and get that thing efficient and consistent, we’re going to be in a really good spot. A lot of things cleaned up this offseason. We took some time off but really just staying consistent with my mechanics, staying within yourself and working on that curveball."
It's pretty clear from the limited video we have, that Plesac has opted for sharper bite on the curve, which he has (again, in limited sample) thrown harder than last year. That seems to almost blend the curve a little more with the slider, which may add to his deception (if he can command the pitch).
Plesac only threw his curveball 9.3% of the time last year but 63% of those were against lefties. This is where the pitch seems to be most crucial for him. Last year, the right-hander was just a fastball, slider, and changeup pitcher, but he only threw his slider 5.1% of the time against left-handed hitters. 205 of his total 216 sliders were thrown to righties, which means Plesac was essentially a two-pitch pitcher against left-handed hitters, which we can see here pretty clearly when looking at the pitches he threw to lefties in a game versus the White Sox last year.
While the results against left-handed hitters so far in Plesac's career haven't been bad, having only two pitches you use against batters will eventually catch up with you, so adding a third pitch is a good thing. However, it also appears from spring starts that Plesac is more comfortable using the curve away against lefties, which is essentially where he uses the changeup, so he's not really going to be attacking a new area of the plate.
Given that Plesac hasn't shown a lot of control of the pitch in Spring Training and that it doesn't really allow him to become more impactful in a different part of the strike zone, I'm not overly optimistic that it's a game-changer pitch for him. In fact, if you look at Plesac's arsenal in terms of the strike zone heat map, his curve has previously been a scattershot mess and now seems likely to target a zone that one of his best pitches already targets.
Perhaps Plesac would be better off with a cutter or a sinker he can throw up in the zone, somewhat similar to Framber Valdez, which would allow him to lose his four-seam fastball, which is his worst pitch but also add a dimension that he doesn't currently have.
VERDICT:
Moderately impactful. Anytime you can go from a two-pitch pitcher to a three-pitch pitcher, it's a meaningful improvement, so Plesac having another offering for left-handed hitters is something we all should want. However, he's clearly still struggling with the command of it and it doesn't seem like a pitch that will drastically change how he attacks lefties. Perhaps this would raise Plesac's floor but not his ceiling too much and I'm not one of those people who is buying into a massive breakout.
JT Brubaker - Slider and Curve
After Brubaker broke into the rotation last year, I had some level of intrigue about him coming into 2021. He was able to limit hard contact and has an interesting array of pitches that gives him the ability to attack most areas of the strike zone.
He also throws a changeup (although not that often) down and in the righties, which always him to cover all corners of the strike zone. Given that and the movement on his pitches, there seemed to be solid potential for Brubaker. In particular, his breaking pitches were effective last year with a 38.1 K% and 38.8% CSW on the slider and 40.9% K% and 30% CSW on the curve. It was his fastball that was his worst pitch, with a 10.08 deserved ERA and 10.5% CSW.
In the offseason, he claimed that he wanted to "unblend by separating himself and his pitches." OK, more separation on pitch offerings isn't a bad thing, but if the pitches work well off of one another, it's not always necessary. I was worried he'd alter the shape and perhaps lessen the effectiveness of those pitches.
But then when you read more about his plans, the shape of his breaking pitches seems to be less important: "Brubaker focused on his release, working to make sure he stays out in front with it and doesn’t get too sidearm in his delivery. And he wants to develop a mentality to attack hitters by getting ahead in the count and staying north-south in the strike zone. 'Mentally, if you’re telling yourself to go after a hitter, your body’s going to go after the hitter,' Brubaker said. 'So it starts mentally, just making sure I’m attacking and staying on the attack on hitters.'"
Then I watched some spring games and didn't actually see a major shift in the shape and delivery of his breaking pitches.
I guess the slider has a bit more cutter-shape now than it did last year, but not by much and the velocity is pretty much the same. The curve has also been a touch harder this spring with more movement in on lefties, but nothing too drastic. All-in-all, he seems like relatively the same pitcher in terms of the arsenal. Perhaps him attacking more and working more north-south in the zone will mean more sinkers up since he lives in the middle a bit in the plot above. That's good, and could make his breaking balls more effective, but I wouldn't say that he introduced a new pitch here.
VERDICT:
Not impactful. These breaking pitches aren't particularly different and don't really change my valuation of Brubaker. I still think he's intriguing as an arm, and I guess I'll now be watching to see if he throws that sinker up in the zone. If he can use the sinker more in place of the four-seam fastball and perhaps add his changeup in more as the fourth pitch, there's a chance for Brubaker to take another step forward.
Daulton Jefferies - Slider
First of all, we need to talk about how hard it is to watch certain players during Spring Training. Jeffries has been crushing it this spring, but it's impossible to see HOW he's doing it because only one of his spring games was in a stadium that was broadcasting the game. Thus, we only have this one inning from his first spring start against the Dodgers.
However, perhaps that one start is enough. I mean, that slider is nasty. In addition to the break being filthy, the hard downward bite is a perfect complement to the rest of his arsenal, which is built around a 95 mph fastball and a power changeup that is really more of a sinker. In fact, if you look at the pitches he showed in his brief MLB debut last year, everything is hard.
We take into account that the sinker and changeup are really the same pitch and he just varied the speed on it a bit, and Jefferies has an arsenal that is mostly versions of a fastball at 90 mph or above. That's where that slider comes in. For starters, it gives him a strikeout weapon against right-handed hitters, but since he also throws the slider hard, it pairs well with a fastball-cutter-sinker repertoire and makes him a more dynamic pitcher.
VERDICT:
While I haven't been able to watch a ton of Jefferies this spring, I think this pitch can be a catapult for him. Remember, this is a former 37th overall pick who has shown plus command and mound presence throughout his minor league career. If the slider consistently looks like it did against the Dodgers then he now has a more diverse and deception arsenal to pair with his plus command. We could be looking at a Tyler Mahle or Dylan Bundy type of rise up the starting pitcher rankings.
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