Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 12

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. This week we're looking at two pitchers from our nation's capital, and one a little farther south down in the sunshine state.

We're breaking down two Nationals pitchers at different stages of their career, with righty Erick Fedde working to turn his career around after early struggles, and lefty Jon Lester looking to hang on for one last bout of effectiveness in his late 30s. We're also looking at the hyped Rays lefty Shane McClanahan, who turned in the best outing of his career on Sunday.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 06/21/2021.

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Erick Fedde, Washington Nationals

18% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 44.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 2.4 K/BB ratio

06/18 vs. NYM: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K

Fedde fired seven shutout innings on Friday, marking his third consecutive start without allowing a run. Fedde’s scoreless streak is at 19 innings and his season ERA is a stellar 3.33, which would be the lowest of his career by nearly a full run. With all of the injuries and disappointing performers in Washington’s rotation, Fedde has done a nice job picking up the slack for the Nats. The Nationals have given Fedde so many chances to be a contributing member of their rotation and their patience may finally be paying off.

A former first round pick out of UNLV, Fedde was once considered one of the top pitching prospects in Washington back in 2016. However, he really struggled to find his footing as a starter. He technically had his best season in 2020 with a 4.29 ERA, but he had a hideous 6.15 FIP, 5.01 K/9, and 1.27 K/BB ratio. If that’s the best he can do, it’s surprising the Nats brought him back for 2021. However, Fedde himself must’ve known what he did in previous seasons wouldn’t cut it as he made some tweaks this season to change his game.

Fedde uses a four-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup. That hasn’t changed in 2021. A few things about the pitches have changed this season, as Fedde is throwing his sinker harder than ever at 93.9 MPH and generating the weakest contact we’ve ever seen against the pitch with an 86.7 MPH average exit velocity against. He’s also made big changes with his cutter this season, using it a career-high 25.6% of the time and throwing it 89.9 miles per hour. Lastly, Fedde has revamped his changeup, going from a split-change in previous seasons to a more traditional changeup in 2021, which has stifled left-handed batters.

First, let’s start with the Fedde fastball because this has been a problem pitch for him throughout his career. Fedde is a sinkerballer, which is a pitching style that has gone by the wayside in the wake of the flyball revolution. Many sinkerballers have struggled to limit power and base hits since the leaguewide shift towards flyballs, and Fedde is no exception. For his career, batters are hitting .299 with an .489 SLG and .376 wOBA against Fedde’s sinker. The numbers against his sinker have improved dramatically this season, as opponents are hitting just .266 with a .418 SLG and .349 wOBA against. There’s a pretty easy connection to make here, as Fedde is throwing the pitch harder than ever at nearly 94 MPH with the ability to touch 96 MPH. The simple conclusion would be that Fedde’s increased velocity took the pitch to the next level and made it more effective, but a deeper look at the results makes us question whether they’re actually sustainable, improved velocity or not.

Sure, Fedde has a career low .266 average against the pitch, but many underlying metrics haven’t changed. Batters still have a .293 xBA and .485 xSLG against the pitch, which are in line with his career numbers. He does have a reduced exit velocity against at 86.7 MPH, which is his lowest since 2017. However, I’d like to seem him maintain that over a longer period of time before trusting it solely to keep his numbers down. He does have a -4-degree average launch angle against and a 58.5% groundball rate with his sinker, so it’s possible he’ll induce enough weak grounders to prevent hits, but it’s a delicate balance. Fedde has been riding a .241 BABIP this season, something that would be nearly impossible to sustain over a long period of time. His fastball is certainly better than it had been in previous seasons, but a moderately-effective sinker will only take him so far.

Fortunately, Fedde doesn’t need to rely on his sinker as much anymore because the bigger change that has catalyzed Fedde’s success are the changes he made to his cutter. Fedde has increased his cutter usage to 25.6%, a 9% increase from the previous season and a career-high by a significant margin. This was a good move for Fedde, as his cutter has been a far more effective pitch than the sinker over the course of his career with opponents hitting .231 with a .299 wOBA against the cutter. Things have gotten even better with Fedde’s cutter this season, as batters are hitting just .205 with a .254 wOBA against the pitch. Fedde is throwing his cutter harder than ever at 89.9 MPH and has drastically improved both the vertical and horizontal movement with the pitch. Below is a chart graphing his vertical movement year-by-year.

This change gives the pitch more sharp downward action and is closer to a traditional slider than the previous iteration of Fedde’s cutter. Here’s an example of the pitch in action earlier this year.

That barely looks like a cutter, and truthfully it could be categorized as either a slider or a cutter by pitch-tracking databases. Regardless of what Fedde or anyone else calls it, it’s working for the Nats righty. He has a career-best 13.1% swinging strike rate and 31.9% chase rate with the pitch, allowing Fedde to nearly double his strikeout rate this season (23.3%) compared to last season (12.6%). This pitch marks the first time in his career that Fedde has a real strikeout weapon to play with on the mound.

Fedde may have a strikeout weapon by his standards, but a 13.1% swinging strike rate isn’t that impressive compared to the rest of the league. His overall swinging strike rate is still quite poor at 8.2%, and it would be hard to see him sustain a strikeout rate near a strikeout per inning over the course of a full season. He has his other flaws too, as Fedde still has a bloated 10.5% walk rate on the year and has never had a walk rate below 9.9%. He also appears to be getting quite lucky in the BABIP and home run departments thus far, as Fedde’s overall BABIP is .241 and his home run rate is at 0.88 HR/9 despite Fedde having a 1.43 HR/9 for his career. These factors contributor to a 4.35 SIERA, which is over a full run higher than his current ERA. Even with the positive changes he’s made, there’s more to dislike about Fedde’s profile than there is to like, and it's hard to recommend him beyond the occasional spot streaming opportunity.

Verdict:

He's headed in the right direction, but Fedde isn't quite relevant outside of deep leagues or NL-only leagues quite yet. His cutter changes are commendable, but the rest of the package is pretty weak and suggests regression is coming for Fedde down the line. His next start is lined up for Wednesday at Philadelphia, and he is not a good streaming option in that matchup.

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

39% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 38.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 3.5 K/BB

06/20 @ SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

There was a lot of excitement for McClanahan when Tampa Bay first promoted him, but after not making it past four innings in his first three starts, the shine quickly wore off. At first it looked like the Rays were limiting his workload for health reasons, but McClanahan sound found himself unable to reach the fifth not because of pitch count, but because of his own performance. McClanahan had a 7.15 ERA in his previous three starts leading into this one, and it looked like he was primed for either a piggyback role or a demotion back to the minors. McClanahan raged against the dying of the light on Sunday however, pitching the best game of his young career for his first quality start against the Mariners. McClanahan was uncharacteristically efficient as well, needing just 86 pitches to complete six innings. With Tampa Bay’s pitching staff ravaged by injuries, McClanahan could be a difference maker for them in what should be a tough AL East race. Does he have what it takes be a difference maker in tight fantasy baseball races?

McClanahan was a fringe top-100 prospect depending on who’s rankings you follow, but there was one thing undeniably interesting to his game, which is the outstanding fastball velocity. McClanahan averages 97.5 MPH with his fastball and tops out over 100 MPH on the gun. He is tied for third-hardest fastball velocity among starters (min. 40 IP) and is the hardest-throwing lefty starter in baseball by nearly 2 MPH. McClanahan is more than just a fireballer,  as he boasts a sharp, back-breaking 90 MPH slider that produces a prodigious amount of whiffs. He also throws a “slow” curveball at 84 MPH 11% of the time, and a show-me changeup he uses solely against righties 9.6% of the time. It’s not only a well-rounded repertoire, but full of above average offerings.

As previously mentioned, McClanahan has big fastball velocity, but the fastball isn’t his best pitch. That honor belongs to his slider, which batters have struggled to the tune of a .175 AVG, .300 SLG, 38.9% chase rate, and 24.7% swinging strike rate. He earned eight of his 17 whiffs with the slider in this most recent start. While the pitch is middle-of-the-pack in spin rate and movement, McClanahan’s slider is the third-hardest among starting pitchers as he is just one of four starters to average over 90 MPH with his slider. Here’s an example of his slider from this most recent start.

If you look closely enough, you can actually see the moment Kyle Seager’s soul exits his mortal form as he waves hopelessly at the offering. McClanahan also uses the pitch a whopping 40.5% of the time, which is the fourth-highest slider usage among starting pitchers (min. 40 IP). His slider usage has been trending downwards over his last few starts, but he has still been above 33% usage in every start this season. This pitch looks like a legitimate strikeout weapon, and McClanahan should be able to sustain a strikeout rate that is far above league average over a longer stretch of time.

McClanahan’s highly touted fastball is another story, as the blazing velocity hasn’t fazed opposing hitters, who have clobbered the pitch for a .367 AVG and .650 SLG, including five longballs surrendered. Batters are making near ideal contact against the fastball with a 94.8-MPH average exit velocity and a 16-degree average launch angle, along with a 33.3% line drive rate against. With only 283 fastballs thrown, McClanahan’s sample size is too small to panic about these poor batted ball numbers, but these numbers are not encouraging. He’s thrown quite a bit of fastball in the middle and upper parts of the zone where batters can pounce on them for base hits. Perhaps McClanahan is too used to blowing his fastball by hitters regardless of location, but in the majors you need more than velocity to thrive. Fastball command and adjustments are something McClanahan will have to work to develop over time because his fastball is being hit way too hard right now.

The good news is that even with poor fastball results, McClanahan has three pitches that have been effective getting outs and generating whiffs. We’ve already talked about his slider, but his curveball and changeup have been excellent thus far as well. Batters have hit .263 with a .368 SLG against the curveball, and .231 with a .462 SLG against the changeup. The expected stats are even better, as both pitches have a .149 xBA and xSLG under .275. This is obviously been a trend, but McClanahan’s curveball is one of the hardest in the majors at 84 MPH, and it’s one pitch where he has above average drop and spin. This has given him an incredible 41.9% chase rate and 22% swinging strike rate with his curveball, which are strikeout numbers practically unheard of with a curveball in today’s game. His changeup is no slouch either, as it has a 15.5% swinging strike rate, which is respectable for a tertiary option he uses solely against righties. These two pitches make up 20% of his arsenal for now, but he could benefit from increased usage, especially with the curveball. That would of course come in due time as he gets stretched out and develops at the major league level.

Verdict:

There’s a lot to like about McClanahan. The raw stuff is just incredible. He’s struggled with his fastball primarily due to command issues, which is something to expect from a young and inexperienced pitcher. He has loads of potential, and if the Rays are going to start letting him pitch deeper into games, fantasy managers should be very interested. He’s worth a shot in leagues of 12 teams or deeper.

Jon Lester, Washington Nationals

6% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 44 IP, 4.09 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 1.7 K/BB ratio

06/19 vs. NYM: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

We saw some old man strength from Lester this weekend, with the savvy veteran turning in his second quality start of the season and first in over a month. Lester brought his season ERA below four with this effort, and with all the issues of injury and under performance in both the rotation and the bullpen for Washington, they could certainly use a dose of vintage Jon Lester to help stabilize their pitching staff. However, it has been a few years since we’ve seen a good version of Jon Lester. Can the longtime Boston and Chicago workhorse regain his old form, or was last week just a fluke as Lester makes the inevitable march towards retirement?

Lester is still rocking the same five-pitch mix he always has, using both a four-seam and two-seam fastball, along with a curveball, changeup, and of course the famous Jon Lester cutter. Obviously, things have slowed down for Lester these days, as his four-seam fastball putters in at just 89 MPH. He’s compensated by reducing his fastball usage and relying more on his cutter and changeup at this stage of his career. While that hasn’t necessarily saved his career, it’s likely extended his usefulness over the last few years and kept Lester in a major league rotation.

Lester was known for his cutter during his prime, and while the pitch is obviously not what it was back then, it still has above average drop and does a good job of generating weak contact. Batters have just an 88.9 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch, along with a 44.7% flyball rate and 23.8% infield fly ball rate against the pitch. An infield fly ball is the best non-strikeout outcome for a pitcher since is essentially a guaranteed out. This can give a pitcher something I like to call the “Marco Estrada effect”, where all of the underlying numbers like FIP, SIERA, and K/BB ratio paint a poor picture, but those things don’t account for the pitcher’s ability to generate infield fly balls. These pitchers can often be undervalued in fantasy, but it walks a fine line as they can also run into homer issues. Lester has surrendered six bombs off his cutter with a bloated .672 SLG. His 28.6% HR/FB ratio with the pitch is a tad high, and his .502 xSLG suggests better days ahead. Still, home runs will likely be an issue for Lester at this point in his career. His cutter doesn’t generate many strikeouts anymore with just a 7.8% swinging strike rate, so by throwing this pitch he’s really just hoping for a pop-up. That’s a dangerous game to play, especially in Nationals Park, which has a hitter-friendly left field power alley. Lester’s cutter does its job by taking the load off his poor four-seam fastball, but it’s not a special pitch anymore.

One more interesting shift Lester has made this season is increased changeup usage. His changeup had never been a key piece of his repertoire, but Lester has thrown the pitch 19.1% of the time in 2021, which is by far a career high. The changeup has been Lester’s best strikeout pitch with an 18.6% swinging strike rate and a 41.6% chase rate. Opponents have hit just .146 with a .195 SLG against the pitch as well. Lester uses the pitch almost exclusively against right-handed hitters, and with such positive results one would think he’d be able to maintain even platoon splits, but that hasn’t been the case. Righties have crushed Lester for a .307 AVG and .516 SLG on the year. The Mets started seven right-handed or switch hitters against Lester on Saturday, so it was nice to see him thrive against such a righty-heavy lineup, but his splits are still discouraging.

Verdict:

Ultimately, Lester’s increased cutter usage and improved changeup outcomes aren’t going to be enough to resurrect his fantasy value. It would be nice to see him pitch deeper into games like he did on Saturday because if there’s one thing I expect from a washed up veteran pitcher, it’s volume. If Lester can routinely make it six innings or deeper he’ll have some value as a streamer, but he offers little upside compared to pretty significant downside. His next start comes Thursday in Miami. He’s usable there in deeper leagues if you need him, but he can be cycled on-and-off rosters as necessary for streaming.

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