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Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 25 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 25 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
We're in the home stretch of the fantasy season, with most head-to-head leagues having entered the playoffs at this point. We still need to find arms on the wire, and this week we're breaking down three interesting NL pitchers. First, we'll deep dive Ryan Weathers' dominance of the Nationals. Then, we'll look at Brandon Sproat's strong second start. We'll finish it off by putting Arizona's Nabil Crismatt under the microscope as he's pitched well over the past month.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of September 15.
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Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins – 11% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 24.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 14.7% K-BB%
09/11 vs. WSH: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Weathers made a statement in his return from the injured list on Thursday, blanking the Nats over five innings en route to his second victory of the season. Weathers had been down since June 9 with a strained lat muscle, his second stint on the injured list this season. He also began the season on the IL and made his season debut on May 14. All in all, it’s been just six starts from Weathers so far, but he’s been effective in them. Weathers has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season, and has a cool 2.73 ERA in 29.2 innings. Did Weathers return just in time to help our fantasy teams to glory?
Originally the seventh-overall pick by the Padres back in 2018, Weathers was a huge pitching prospect at one point and was considered to be a future frontline starter. He struggled mightily with the Padres however, posting a 5.73 ERA in 43 career games for the Friars. The Marlins took a low-risk shot on him at the 2023 trade deadline, acquiring Weathers for Garrett Cooper and Sean Reynolds. Weathers works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, slider, and sinker.
Weathers most used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. Instead, Weathers leaned heavily on his changeup, throwing it 38.2% of the time. It wasn’t too large of a deviation from his normal pitch usage as he’s thrown the changeup 30.8% of the time this season, but this was the first time Weathers threw his changeup more than his fastball in a start this year.
An 87.2 mph offering, Weathers’ changeup has strong movement, with 2.8 inches of induced vertical break and 13.5 inches of arm-side run. Weathers only averaged 11 inches of horizontal movement in this start, so perhaps he’ll regain movement as he builds back up, though Weathers probably only has two or three starts left this season. The reduced movement didn’t stop the Nationals from hacking at the pitch, with Weathers earning six of his 13 whiffs with the changeup in this start. Here’s an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
It's a sharp changeup with strong horizontal movement. Overall, batters have struggled against this changeup, hitting just .226 with a .484 SLG and a .310 wOBA. Weathers has been susceptible to some power, but he also has a .186 xBA, .371 xSLG, and a .247 xwOBA with his changeup, suggesting that the pitch has had some unfavorable outcomes that could correct over time. Perhaps the most impressive metric for this pitch is the 42.7% whiff rate.
This changeup has the makings of a dominant strikeout offering, and maybe Weathers could improve upon his league average 22.3% strikeout rate if he had a fully healthy season, or even just a prolonged stretch of health in the middle of season. Health has been a major concern for Weathers throughout his career, and it would be interesting to see what he could do if he could stay on the mound.
Weathers’ most used pitch in this start may’ve been the changeup, but his most used pitch on the year has been the four-seam fastball. A 97.1 mph offering, Weathers brings some serious heat to the table, ranking in the 88th percentile for fastball velocity in MLB. It’s not just about velocity for Weathers either, as he has some strong movement on his fastball.
He’s averaged 17 inches of induced vertical break this season, which is up about two inches from previous years. He also has 9.2 inches of arm-side movement with the pitch as well, giving it a unique shape that is difficult for hitters to square up. Here’s an example of the four-seamer from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
It's got some life to it, and batters have struggled against Weathers’ four-seamer thus far, hitting just .232 with a .375 SLG and a .301 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Weathers has earned these results too, with a .236 xBA, .401 xSLG, and .310 xwOBA. Weathers only has a 16.5% whiff rate with this pitch and he does have a 90 mph average exit velocity against, so he doesn’t get a ton of swing-and-miss and he gives up his share of hard contact. It’s only been six starts this season, but the average exit velocity against his heater has steadily remained around 90 mph throughout his MLB career.
With a fastball this hard and with this much movement, one would expect Weathers to hammer the upper part of the zone and go above the zone with high heat, but that hasn’t been the case so far. Let’s have a look at Weathers’ four-seam heatmap from this season.
He’s put it up in the zone some, but he’s really lived in the middle part of the zone and has a whopping 69.4% zone rate with his fastball this season. This is not great location from Weathers and I’d love to see him start throwing more high fastballs, as it could really elevate his game. This fastball is hard with movement, so there should be some swing-and-miss potential here, even if Weathers hasn’t realized it yet.
Weathers’ next most used pitch has been the sweeper, which he’s thrown 16.7% of the time this season. His usage was up slightly in this start at 21%, and Weathers got four of his 13 whiffs with the sweeper in this start. An 83.4 mph offering, Weathers’ sweeper doesn’t have a lot of drop, but it has 10.4 inches of glove-side movement. Here’s an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
It's softer and loopier than a slider, and opponents have really struggled against this pitch. Batters are hitting just .133 off Weathers’ sweeper along with a .133 SLG and a .187 wOBA. The expected stats aren’t much better with a .171 xBA, .246 xSLG, and .240 wOBA. Weathers also has a 34.5% whiff rate with this pitch, which isn’t as good as his changeup, but still a strong number nonetheless. This pitch looks like it could be a decent strikeout offering, while also inducing favorable contact when batters do strike the ball. Opponents have a 79.2 mph average exit velocity off Weathers’ sweeper along with a -1-degree average launch angle against. This sweeper looks like the perfect breaking ball to complement Weathers fastball-changeup combo.
Weathers also throws a slider, which is harder and sharper than the sweeper. The slider averages 88.7 mph of velocity and has 6.2 inches of induced vertical break and one inch of glove-side movement. He’s only thrown the slider 4% of the time so far, but it has a monster 45.5% whiff rate. It would be interesting to see Weathers incorporate this pitch more frequently along with his other effective secondary options.
Between the changeup, sweeper, and slider Weathers has a deep arsenal that can be effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. He only has a 22.3% strikeout rate this season and has a 19.3% rate in the majors all time, but I think there’s the potential for more strikeouts in the future. If Weathers can locate his fastball better he’ll be attacking hitters up and down the zone with strong pitches. It’s easy to see why Weathers was such a big prospect when coming up; the stuff is good.
Verdict:
Weathers is back just in time for the home stretch, and I think he’s a worthy add in standard leagues or deeper. He brings serious heat at 97 mph, plus he backs it up with three strong secondary offerings. His famous changeup has been stymieing hitters thus far, and his slider and sweeper have racked up whiffs and kept runners off the bases. He’s also displayed excellent control, with a 6.6% walk rate on the year and zero walks issued in this start.
The one area of concern I have with Weathers is his fastball location. He is hammering the zone with a 69.4% fastball zone rate, and is mostly living in the middle. Let’s keep that ball up and see if hitters start to swing through 97 mph of heat at the letters. I’m not sure if there’s enough time left in the season for Weathers to take another step this year, but I sort of like him as a 2026 post-hype sleeper. Maybe next year he’ll stay healthy.
Brandon Sproat, New York Mets – 22% Rostered
2025 Stats (AAA): 121 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 11.7% K-BB%
09/13 vs. TEX: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
The Mets promoted yet another exciting young pitching prospect, and he has delivered through two starts thus far. Sproat has gone six innings in each start and put up a quality start in his first two outings. The young right-hander was excellent on Saturday, blanking the Rangers in a tough luck no decision, with no walks and three strikeouts. We’ve seen mixed results with these Mets prospects; Nolan McLean has been lights out and then some, while Jonah Tong has struggled outside of his debut. Can Sproat be a reliable arm down the stretch?
Originally a third-round pick by the Mets in 2022, Sproat didn’t sign and played for Florida. The Mets liked him so much they took him again in the second round of 2023, and he quickly became ranked as one of their top pitching prospects. Sproat works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, sweeper, curveball, changeup, four-seamer, and slider.
Sproat’s most used pitch in this start was the sinker, which he threw 36% of the time against Texas. A 95.6 mph offering, Sproat is most known for the big velocity with his fastball. He was averaging 95.7 mph with the sinker in the minors and 96.6 mph with the four-seamer. Sproat has above average velocity, and he also gets decent movement with the pitch with 6.9 inches of induced vertical break.
He’s only averaged 16.2 inches of arm-side movement, so not a lot of horizontal break with the sinker. Opponents are hitting .300 off the pitch so far, but with a .278 xBA and zero extra base hits. Batters have a 79-mph average exit velocity against the pitch, which is outstanding, but it’s only been two starts. It’s too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from yet, but this pitch could be a solid offering if Sproat can continue to limit hard contact.
The sinker has been Sproat’s most used pitch in the majors so far, which is a little odd because the four-seamer was his most used pitch in the minors. A 96.2 mph offering, Sproat’s four-seamer has plus velocity but lacks the strong movement that leads to deception. He only averaged 13.6 inches of induced vertical break and 8.5 inches of arm-side movement with the pitch in the minors, and it has measured out similarly in the majors so far. Let’s have a look at Sproat’s pitch movement profile (four-seamer in red).
See how everything is clustered in that red striped circle? That’s not a good thing, because it means his fastball shape is typical, and therefore easier for hitters to read and pick up on. Sproat had a 24.3% whiff rate with his four-seamer in the minors, but hasn’t gotten a single whiff with the pitch so far in the majors. He won’t get by on just pure heat, and that makes this fastball vulnerable.
Sproat has struggled in Triple-A both this season and last, and it may be that more seasoned hitters can handle this fastball better. 96 with no movement is fine for the lower levels of the minors, but things get tricky as the player rises levels. We definitely need to see more from Sproat before drawing conclusions, but I am not impressed by this fastball despite plus velocity. I would rather bank on a prospect or pitcher with plus fastball movement and average fastball velocity, versus plus velocity and average movement, which describes Sproat.
His most used secondary pitch has been the sweeper, which Sproat threw 23% of the time against the Rangers. It was effective for him too, with Sproat earning four of his five whiffs with the sweeper in this start. An 84.4 mph offering, Sproat’s sweeper is a softer breaking ball with good velocity differentiation versus his fastballs. The sweeper was Sproat’s best strikeout pitch in the minors, but I’m not that impressed by his 33.8% whiff rate with the pitch or 22.1% overall strikeout rate at Triple-A this season. The sweeper does not have exceptional movement with 4.4 inches of induced vertical break and 13.1 inches of glove-side break. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
He got the hitter to chase in a two-strike count, but Jake Burger did Sproat a favor on that one. The sweeper may not be a high-end strikeout pitch, but Sproat had a microscopic .125 xBA and a .235 xSLG with his sweeper in the minors, and batters are hitting just .083 through two starts in the majors. He only had a 17% hard hit rate against the pitch in the minors, so Sproat has done an excellent job at limiting hard contact. That can be effective for getting outs, but if this is his best secondary pitch it leaves a lot to be desired for fantasy purposes.
The sweeper isn’t Sproat’s only breaking ball, as he throws a slider and curveball as well. The curveball has seen more usage in the majors at 16.5% through two starts, though he only threw the curve 6.8% of the time in the minors. A 79.5 mph offering, Sproat’s curveball has -11 inches of induced vertical break and 11.8 inches of glove-side movement. It’s a traditional, looping curve that comes in softly.
Sproat has just one whiff for a 20% whiff rate with the pitch so far, and batters have hit .333 off the curve. It performed much better for him in the minors with a .134 xBA and 14.3% hard hit rate against, but we’ll have to see if he can induce the same weak contact against major league hitters with it. He only threw the curveball 10% of the time against the Rangers and I’d expect his usage to stay in that range, rather than be >20 like we saw in his debut.
Sproat also mixes in a slider, though he’s only thrown six sliders in two starts thus far. An 89.7 mph offering, Sproat’s slider is harder and sharper than his sweeper, though it doesn’t have as much drop. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
Looks pretty nasty there, even if it lacks drop. Sproat had a 42.2% whiff rate with his slider in the minors, so perhaps this could be his go-to strikeout pitch, or at least something he can rely on with two strikes. It’s strange that Sproat has barely used the slider since his promotion; I’d love to see him try and incorporate the pitch more often to try and put batters away. Sliders that are 90+ mph can be fun and effective when commanded properly and paired with a hard fastball, which Sproat has.
Sproat also throws an 89.4 mph changeup, which he’s used 12.7% of the time in the majors so far. He used it 17% of the time against the Rangers, though he did not earn a single whiff with the pitch and had a 17% CSW rate. Like his other offerings, the pitch doesn’t have outstanding movement and I’m not sure Sproat can replicate his minor league success in the majors. The changeup does give him something to use against lefties, but I need to see more before I can consider this a major league caliber changeup.
Verdict:
Yet another Mets pitching prospect has been promoted, but I’m less enthused about Sproat compared to previous call ups. Sproat has excellent velocity with his pitches and can touch 98 on the fastball, but he lacks plus movement with both his fastballs and secondary offerings. His minor league numbers were nothing special prior to promotion, and if he can only get a 22.1% K rate at Triple-A, what’s he going to produce in the majors?
His fastballs have typical shapes and lack deception, while his breaking balls are below average in movement. He could end up being a solid mid-rotation piece if he maintains good command, but he’s probably not a league-winner like Nolan McLean. His next start does come against the Nationals, so I think Sproat is a fine stream in that matchup. He’s slated to finish things off against the Cubs as of writing this, and I’d avoid him in that matchup.
Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks – 6% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 25 IP, 3.07 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 9.3% K-BB%
09/14 @ MIN: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 4 K
Crismatt was fantastic on Sunday, allowing zero earned runs while picking up his third victory of the season against the Twins on the road. It’s been quite a run for Crismatt, who was promoted to Arizona in August and has put up a 2.70 ERA in six games so far this season. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in all but one appearance all year. Is Crismatt emerging as an unheralded arm ready to help down the stretch?
Originally an international free agent signing by the Mets back in 2012, Crismatt toiled away in the minors for eight years waiting to get his shot until it finally came with the Cardinals in 2020. He was a key piece of San Diego’s bullpen in 2021-2022, appearing in 95 games and pitching to a 3.39 ERA during that span, but struggled in 2023 and has bounced around the league ever since. Crismatt works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a changeup, sinker, curveball, four-seam fastball, slider, and cutter.
Crismatt may have six pitches to choose from, but he relied heavily on two of them against the Twins on Sunday, and that would be his changeup and four-seam fastball. He threw the two pitches a combined 77% of the time. Heavy changeup usage is nothing new for Crismatt--he has a 36.6% changeup usage rate this year—but the four-seam usage was abnormal. He hadn’t thrown his four-seamer more than 14% of the time in any other appearance this season, and has just a 13.9% usage rate on the year.
An 89 mph offering, Crismatt’s fastball is among the softest in MLB among starters, and is especially soft for a right-hander. Batters have hit the pitch well so far, with a .300 AVG, .600 SLG, and .432 wOBA off Crismatt’s four-seamer. The expected stats are somehow worse with a .356 xBA, .659 xSLG, and .473 xwOBA against the four-seamer. Not only is Crismatt’s fastball soft, it also lacks movement. He has 14.7 inches of induced vertical break and 8.8 inches of arm-side run. Here’s a look at Crismatt’s pitch movement profile from this season (four-seamer in red).
His four-seamer is all bunched up in that red circle, and that’s not a good thing for deceptiveness. Crismatt’s fastball is soft with a typical shape, and major league hitters should have no problem against it.
The changeup has proven much more effective for Crismatt so far, with batters hitting .254 with a .356 SLG and a .263 wOBA off the pitch. An 81.4 mph offering, Crismatt’s changeup has strong movement, with 2.1 inches of induced vertical break and 10.7 inches of arm-side movement. Here’s an example from this start.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
That’s some nice drop, and the changeup has been a decent strikeout pitch for Crismatt so far. He has a 35.3% whiff rate with the pitch and got nine of his 12 whiffs with the pitch in this start. The changeup was Crismatt’s specialty when he had success a few years ago in San Diego’s bullpen, and it looks to be a solid strikeout pitch.
Crismatt relied heavily on the four-seamer against the Twins, but he’d primarily been throwing the sinker prior to this start. He has a 24.5% sinker usage rate on the year, versus 13.9% four-seam usage. An 89.2 mph offering, Crismatt’s sinker is yet another soft pitch. He ranks in the second percentile of fastball velocity in the majors. Trevor Williams and Kyle Hendricks are the only right-handed starters in the majors who throw softer than Crismatt. That’s not exactly Cy Young company.
Crismatt has gotten decent results with the sinker so far, as batters are hitting .261 against the pitch with a .261 SLG and a .273 wOBA. The expected stats paint a different picture, however, as Crismatt has a .329 xBA, .404 xSLG, and .351 xwOBA off his sinker this season. He’s skated by with the pitch thanks to a .273 BABIP, but I’d expect that to regress towards his .354 career BABIP off his sinker. The sinker is a decent groundball pitch with a 4-degree average launch angle against and a 54.5% ground-ball rate this year, but the pitch is so soft and lacks life, making mistakes costly. Crismatt can use the pitch to get out of jams and get grounders, but it’s nothing special.
It's mostly been about fastballs and changeups for Crismatt, but he does use a curveball 17.1% of the time. A 73.8 mph offering, Crismatt’s curveball is soft and loopy with lots of drop. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 16, 2025
That looks like a classic curveball, and Crismatt has averaged -12 inches of induced vertical break and 12.6 inches of glove-side movement with the pitch so far. Batters have handled the pitch well, with a .278 AVG, .556 SLG, and .399 wOBA against, but the expected stats are much more favorable, with a .210 xBA, .319 xSLG, and .295 xwOBA. Batters have just an 82.5 mph average exit velocity off this pitch, and Crismatt has a solid 43.8% ground-ball rate with it so far. This won’t be a dominant breaker racking up strikeouts, but it’s a nice complement to his changeup and fastballs.
Verdict:
It’s been a nice run for Crismatt, but it’s mostly been fueled by good fortune. His 4.44 SIERA is nearly two runs higher than his 2.70 ERA, and his 6.3 K/9 is among the lowest in the league for a starting pitcher. His stuff lacks serious oomph as Crismatt averages under 90 mph with both his four-seamer and sinker. Both fastballs are susceptible to hard hits and power, and could be liabilities for Crismatt on the mound. He used his four-seamer an uncharacteristically high amount in this start, but even if that became a regular occurrence it wouldn’t suddenly turn Crismatt into a viable starter.
His changeup is his best pitch, and Crismatt could get plenty of strikeouts in the bullpen with this offering. His sinker/changeup combination could play well out of the bullpen, as he gets whiffs and groundballs despite lacking velocity. His future is probably in the bullpen, and I wouldn’t trust Crismatt in my fantasy lineup. Plus, his final two starts are slated to be against the Phillies and Padres. No thank you.
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