5 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitchers Who Could Become Aces in 2026

January 16, 2026

Eric Cross discusses five starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts who could become aces in 2026. Read about his favorite fantasy baseball sleepers and risers.

In fantasy baseball, we're always looking for players who can take the next step. The next step means different things to different players, but for a small percentage of players, that means taking the next step to superstardom.

This is an article I've been writing every offseason for the last few years now, and it's always one of my favorites to put together. The top of the starting pitcher rankings always seems to be in flux due to injuries, so pinpointing the names who could jump up into the top few tiers should always be on the minds of fantasy managers.

This year's crop was fairly easy to pick out thanks to the exciting 2025 pitching rookie class. Three of the five names below made their major league debuts in 2025, and all five are 26 years old or younger.

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Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

If there were a Spotify Wrapped recap for fantasy baseball analysts recapping their most talked about players, Emmet Sheehan would likely be near the top of my list. I'm all-in on the Dodgers' 26-year-old right-hander, so he was an easy pick to lead off this article.

In 73.1 innings last season, Sheehan posted an impressive 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.6% walk rate, and a 30.6% strikeout rate. He was one of just three pitchers to have a FIP under 3.00, a batting average against under .200, and a K-BB rate above 23% while pitching at least 70 innings in 2025. The other two names just happened to be Cy Young Award winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. Not too shabby.

Emmet Sheehan ties his career high with his 10th strikeout of the day 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/UjB4rUWx8S

— MLB (@MLB) September 21, 2025

Sheehan works primarily with a four-seamer, slider, and changeup while mixing in the occasional curveball. His fastball averaged 95.6 mph and registered a .214 BAA in 2025, and this was just his third-best offering. Both Sheehan's slider and changeup had a BAA under .170 and a whiff rate above 30% with the slider having a 43.6% whiff rate.

Those three offerings combined to allow only 19 extra-base hits in 264 at-bats.

Sheehan's ability to miss bats (32.9% whiff rate), get hitters to chase outside the zone (32.8% chase rate), limit contact in the zone (79.8), and keep his walk rate in check are all very encouraging and give me plenty of optimism that he can take the next step in 2026. The one slight concern I have, though, is that the Dodgers are likely to go with a six-man rotation, which could keep Sheehan under 150 innings.

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins

This one is a layup, but as someone who has played basketball his whole life, I was always taught to take the open layup when it's there. There aren't many pitchers in the world with more upside than Eury Pérez. In fact, you can count them on one hand. And if any one pitcher were to join the elite pitching top tier of Skubal, Skenes, and Garrett Crochet in 2026, my money would be on Pérez.

There's never a good time to have Tommy John surgery, but Pérez needing the surgery after having a phenomenal rookie season was truly a bummer. Pérez posted a stellar 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 20.6% K-BB rate in his 2023 rookie season, and returned to similar results in 2025 outside of his surface ERA. In 20 starts spanning 95.1 innings, Pérez had a 4.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.3% walk rate, and a 27.3% strikeout rate. Even though his surface ERA was over a run higher, his xERA was 0.40 lower than in 2023.

When you pop the hood, most of Pérez's underlying metrics are very enticing. Even with his chase and whiff rates ticking down from 2023, they were still both a solid 28.4%, and Pérez continued to limit contact in the zone well with a 79.4% zone contact rate allowed.

Pérez's arsenal also expanded in 2025. After working with a four-pitch mix in 2023, Pérez added a sweeper in 2025, which had a 46.4% whiff rate. Pérez also had a 39.9% whiff rate on his slider and a whopping 61.1% whiff rate on his changeup. However, the whiff rate on his curveball plummeted from 2023, dropping from 54.3% to 20.6%. If he can regain his 2023 curveball in 2026, watch out.

We also have to keep in mind that Pérez was shaking off some rust after missing all of 2024 with a major injury/surgery. It'd be unfair to expect him to immediately return to his pre-injury form, so the fact that he was pretty close should be extremely exciting to anyone who rosters him in a dynasty league.

With that said, the one area of concern I have with Pérez is the batted ball angles he allows. In 2025, 68.6% of the batted balls Pérez allowed were in the air, and he's allowed a pull-air rate above 28% in each of his first two major league seasons.

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

If Nolan McLean had come up a month or two earlier, he could've made a serious run at the National League Rookie of the Year award. Pound for pound, McLean makes a strong case for being the most impressive 2025 rookie not named Nick Kurtz.

In eight starts with the Mets, McLean dominated to the tune of a 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 30.3% strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate in check at 8.5%. He was equally as impressive in the minors, recording a 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 27.2% strikeout rate in 113.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

While McLean's 2025 performance was impressive on the surface, it becomes even more impressive when you factor in that this was his first season as a full-time pitcher. McLean was a two-way player through the 2024 season and only started, focusing on pitching, entering the 2025 season.

2025 PitchingNinja "Harry Potter" Award for Best Wizard Debut. 🧙‍♂️🪄🏆

Winner: Nolan McLean

Dude didn’t pitch, he conjured. pic.twitter.com/ixj9HunVYp

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 26, 2025

McLean works with a deep six-pitch arsenal, all of which he uses at least 8% of the time. These six pitches are in four different velocity bands, and the movement profiles can give opposing hitters nightmares when trying to predict which pitch McLean will be throwing. Just watch the above video for examples of McLean's filth.

McLean's sweeper was his bread and butter offering in the minors, but the pitch actually didn't fare well in the majors, with a .361 BAA and .528 SLG allowed. However, McLean's sinker had a .193 BAA, and he had a whiff rate above 30% on his curveball, four-seamer, changeup, and cutter. The curveball led the way with a 50% whiff rate to go along with a .074 BAA and .074 SLG allowed.

Overall, McLean finished his first major league stint with a 28.4% whiff rate and 77.9% zone contact rate. On top of that, McLean also generated an impressive 60.2% ground-ball rate and 8% pull-air rate allowed. Not many pitchers are able to generate groundballs and whiffs at the level McLean does. It feels like McLean is just scratching the surface of his potential on the mound.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

You had to know my No. 1 pitching prospect was going to make this article. The naysayers will point to the home ballpark and Burns' "lack of a third pitch". Yes, the home ballpark is less than ideal, and Burns threw his changeup, his third pitch, just 5.6% of the time with the Reds in 2025. However, pitching in Cincinnati isn't the death sentence that Coors Field is (look at Hunter Greene), and Burns' changeup actually has promise. He just doesn't throw it too often.

In Burns' eight starts and five relief appearances with the Reds, he posted a 4.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.5% walk rate, and a 35.6% strikeout rate. His 27.1% K-BB rate was the third-best mark by a rookie pitcher in the 21st century with at least 40 innings pitched, trailing only Stephen Strasburg in 2010 and Spencer Strider in 2022. And for pitchers with at least 40 innings in 2025, only six had a higher strikeout rate than Burns, with five of those six being relievers.

Burns' four-seamer and slider are his bread and butter offerings. The four-seamer averaged 98.7 mph and allowed just a .341 SLG and .091 ISO last season, while Burns' slider recorded a .203 BAA and 43.7% whiff rate.

That aforementioned changeup had a .182 BAA, .091 ISO allowed, and a 33.3% whiff rate. He only used it against left-handed hitters, though, tossing it 10% of the time while also mixing in a sporadic sinker and curveball. But against right-handers, it was basically 100% four-seamers and sliders.

Burns' ability to miss bats (31.9% whiff), limit contact in the zone (79.7%), get hitters to chase (31.5%), and keep his walk rate in check are all incredibly positive and exciting for a young pitcher with frontline upside. I'd love to see him work that changeup in more and add a third offering against right-handed hitters, but the upside is massive, and the arrow is firmly pointing upwards here with Burns.

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Out of all the pitchers in this article, the one with the highest range of outcomes is Jacob Misiorowski. The upside is here for Misiorowski to become one of the best pitchers in the game. But there's plenty of downside as I'll get into below.

In his 66 innings with the Brewers in 2025, Misiorowski finished with a 4.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% walk rate, and a 32% strikeout rate. There was plenty of red on his savant page as well, with Misiorowski finishing in the Top-10% of hitters in xBA, fastball velocity, strikeout rate, and extension.

2025 PitchingNinja Slider of the Year Award. 🏆

Winner: Jacob Misiorowski

The Miz sent Willi Castro to the shadow realm with this one. 💀🪦⚰️ pic.twitter.com/2mhyLLaifK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 21, 2025

If you watch Misiorowski pitch for 30 seconds, you'll immediately see how electric he is on the mound. His four-seamer averaged a whopping 99.3 mph in 2025 with a .193 BAA, .312 SLG allowed, and 32.5% whiff rate. Everything Misiorowski throws is hard, as he averaged 92.3 mph on his changeup, 87.1 mph on his curveball, and a ridiculous 94.1 mph on his slider. That's more than most pitchers' average fastball velocity.

Three of those, Misiorowski's four offerings, have a whiff rate above 30% and a BAA under .240. The only pitch that didn't meet those thresholds was, surprisingly, his slider. While the velocity breaks the slider velocity spectrum, Misiorowski didn't command the pitch well, often leaving it in the middle or upper third of the zone.

Command and control have been an issue for Misiorowski in general throughout his professional career. Still, he made strides with his walk rate in Triple-A last season, and his 11% walk rate in the majors isn't in the danger zone yet.

While the risk with Misiorowski is more elevated than I'd like to see, not many pitchers on the planet can match his upside. If he can stay healthy and keep the walk rate in check, Misiorowski could push fantasy ace value in 2026 and beyond.

Honorable Mentions

• Trey Yesavage (TOR)
• Bubba Chandler (PIT)
• Cam Schlittler (NYY)
• Kyle Bradish (BAL)

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