Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 9

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

It was a week of young guns in the fantasy baseball world as we saw excellent outings from tons of young, exciting pitchers around the league. Alek Manoah has received his fair share of coverage, and deservedly so, but we're going to take things in another direction in this piece and look at some under-the-radar youngsters who've strung together some good stretches in their own right.

Adbert Alzolay continues to pitch well on the north side of Chicago up to and including blanking the Reds on Friday, while Kris Bubic acts as a spark plug in Kansas City's rotation and has kept his ERA below two. Justin Dunn has been hiding up in the pacific northwest, but carved up the Texas Rangers on Saturday for eight strikeouts in a dominant showing.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 05/31/2021.

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Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs

35% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 44 IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.34 ERA, 6.4 K/BB ratio

05/28 vs. CIN: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Alzolay earned a rotation spot after a strong 2020 showing where he posted a 2.95 ERA and 12.23 K/9 in 21.1 innings. He’s had a difficult time carrying over that success in 2021, and Friday’s start marked the first time all season that Alzolay kept an opponent from scoring in a start. Even though Alzolay has struggled in the run prevention department, he still owns a respectable 3.81 ERA on the season. With a solid grip on his rotation spot and a formidable Chicago lineup supporting him, Alzolay has piqued the interest of fantasy players, but can the young Cub grow into a bear this season?

Alzolay was considered a mid-tier pitching prospect in the Cubs’ system, with scouts admiring his mid-90s heater and sharp breaking slider. However, those same scouts worried his limited repertoire would relegate Alzolay to a bullpen role. His uninspiring 4.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 2.68 K/BB ratio in 105 innings at Triple-A only exacerbated the concerns of his detractors. Alzolay’s biggest issue was his over-reliance on two pitches, his four-seam fastball and his curveball, using the two offerings for more than 80% of his pitches thrown. He does throw a changeup on occasion, but the pitch was not working as a successful third pitch to keep batters guessing and the bullpen prophecy was appearing to come true before our eyes. Alzolay didn’t want to accept that, however, and he decided to reinvent his arsenal with a new pitch, a 94 MPH sinker. The pitch wasn’t an instant revelation for Alzolay, but it gave him a much-needed reliable third option and helped him maintain success as a starter.

One might look at the results on Alzolay’s slider and wonder how this offering could save his career. Opponents have a .288 AVG and .884 OPS against the pitch all time, along with a meager 5.9% swinging strike rate. Chris Sale’s slider, this pitch is not. However, the sinker filled in a few gaps in Alzolay’s game. First, it gave him a reliable third pitch that he could command. In fact, the sinker has graduated from third pitch to his primary fastball, as he is using it 30% of the time this season compared to 18.8% four-seam fastball usage. Second, the sinker has generated ground balls at a 61% clip, giving the flyball-heavy Alzolay a much need shift in the other direction, especially when the wind starts blowing out at Wrigley. Third, the pitch has helped Alzolay find the strike zone with more regularity. In 2020 he had an untenable 14.9% walk rate, but he’s lowered that to an above average 5.2% in 2021. Both marks are small sample sizes, but the sinker has been a pitch he’s routinely found the zone with, which helps keep runners off the bases and sets up his slider. His true walk rate is probably somewhere in between 5-15%, but the sinker has helped him keep it on the lower side.

The sinker is a great addition to Alzolay’s previously limited repertoire, but make no mistake, he lives and dies by the slider. Depending on which pitch-tracking website you use, Alzolay throws his slider between 42-47% of the time. Alzolay has some inconsistencies across different pitch-tracking websites, but even if you use the lowest number, Alzolay throws a slider the third-most frequently in baseball (min. 40 IP). This is a large increase over the previous season where Alzolay only threw his slider about 6% of the time. Alzolay flipped his breaking ball usage this season compared to last because in 2020 he was primarily throwing his curveball, but now he’s throwing his slider more than ever. Like the sinker, his slider is also a contributor towards his decreased walk rate, mainly because Alzolay can get batters to swing at the slider. His swing rate on the curveball last season was just 37.3%, and with a 56% zone rate, it was easy for hitters lay off until Alzolay found himself behind in the count. His slider is fooling hitters much more, as opponents have a 54.6% swing rate against the pitch along with a 36.8% chase rate. His swinging strike rate with the slider is about 5% higher compared to the curveball, so this pitch will help him in the strikeout department and in the walk department.

Not only is Alzolay’s slider better for his walk rate, it’s an awesome pitch on its own. Batters have hit just .165 against the pitch all season, along with a .258 SLG and a 17.1% swinging strike rate. The pitch also has 150 RPM of spin above league average and three inches of break above league average. Rather than spit numbers about how great the pitch is, let’s have a look at one live and in color. Below is an example of an Alzolay slider from this season.

With it’s wiping right-to-left action, that is the type of slider than could really develop into an even more dominant strikeout pitch in the future. He has a 26.3% strikeout rate thus far this season, but there might be room for growth down the line. For Alzolay, he might find more strikeout success if he incorporates his curveball more often. He adopted a rather extreme approach with his slider-sinker combo shouldering the bulk of the load on the mound, but if he can command the curveball and make it an effective secondary breaking ball, there might be another level here. The curveball looks pretty darn good in action, so let’s also take a look at a curveball from last year.

With that pitch you can see Edwin Encarnacion realize in real time that he’s no longer able to hang in the majors. His baseball soul and his desire to try and play at the big league level evaporated as the umpire rung him up. Alzolay is pitching well enough now that he probably doesn’t feel the need to tamper with results, but long term it would be best for him to use the curveball 10-20% of the time along with his slider and sinker. If he does that, he could be a really useful starter with a bright future.

Verdict:

Alzolay made a lot of changes in 2021, and for the most part they are changes in the right direction. Alzolay has reduced his walk rate and given himself a new weapon with his two-seam fastball. He’s also drastically increased his slider usage, which has been his best strikeout pitch over the course of his young career. It would be nice to see him use his curveball more often, and if he can command the pitch, he could really take off. For now, Alzolay is worth an add in anything deeper than 12 teams, and he’s a high-end streaming option. His next start is scheduled for Wednesday against San Diego, which I’d probably avoid due to the strength of the opponent. However, he does have a two start week at San Diego and home against St. Louis, and he’s usable in that week even against those lineups.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

25% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 23.2 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.4 K/BB ratio

05/28 @ MIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB,5 K

Bubic has been on a roll since joining the Royals’ rotation, putting up three consecutive starts allowing two runs or fewer. In fact, Bubic hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any outing this season, and his most recent start against Minnesota marks the first time Bubic has allowed a home run all season. After a so-so rookie debut in 2020, Bubic has been dominant in 2021 thus far. He is beginning to live up to his prospect hype as one of Kansas City’s most touted arms over the last few years. Can he rise above the rest, or will Bubic fall into the same bucket as the many young Kansas City fringe starters?

From a pure stuff perspective, it’s a wonder why scouts ranked Bubic so highly. He doesn’t possess the typical traits that scouts seek out, chiefly in the velocity department. Bubic’s fastball has averaged just 90.6 MPH this season, and he was even a hair under 90 MPH in his start against the Twins. Instead, the gem of Bubic’s arsenal is an 80 MPH changeup, a pitch he uses 35% of the time. Bubic rounds things out with a loopy 79 MPH curveball, which he uses about 11% of the time. It’s not the profile scouts drool over, but Bubic got their attention with his results. As a minor leaguer, Bubic has a 2.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 3.9 K/BB ratio. Not too shabby, though he is a college pitcher that never made it past High-A. Nonetheless, Bubic has pitched well at the minor league level and now he’s doing it at the major league level. Along the way the key to his success has remained the same: set up the changeup.

Bubic’s changeup has long been touted as his best offering, and that’s certainly been true this season. Batters are hitting just .140 against Bubic’s changeup, along with a .405 OPS and a 12.2% swinging strike rate. With a spin rate of 1607 RPM and nearly 13 inches of break, the pitch has the perfect combination of spin and movement to deceive hitters and generate whiffs and favorable contact. It also allows the pitch to act as a breaking ball for Bubic, and it’s often his go-to pitch late in the count. Here’s an example of one of his changeups from a start earlier this season.

This offering showcases the excellent drop and deceptive nature of the pitch, and makes it easy to understand how batters have struggled so mightily against Bubic’s changeup.

The changeup has been the main attraction for Bubic, but he’s gotten great results on his other pitches as well. Batters have mustered a meager .216 AVG, .333 SLG, and a .352 xwOBA against his four-seam fastball. This is a stark improvement compared to last season, where Bubic allowed a .299 AVG, .464 SLG, and .379 xwOBA against the heater. The main difference for him has been location, as Bubic has done a better job keeping the ball up in the zone where batters can’t square it up. Below is a heat map comparison of Bubic’s fastball location in 2020 (bottom) compared to 2021 (top).

It’s a slight shift up and towards the outer parts of the plate, but it’s resulted in 20% decrease in line drive rate from 34.9% to 14%, and nearly all of those line drives became flyballs, as his fly ball rate went from 25.4% in 2020 to 44.2% in 2021. Many people might see an increased fly ball rate and think it’s bad for Bubic since he’ll allow more home runs, but that’s not necessarily the case. First, a line drive is the worst type of batted ball a pitcher can allow, as batters have a .682 AVG, 1.564 OPS, and 340 wRC+ on line drives across the league. A reduction in line drives can only be good for a pitcher. Secondly, increased fly balls may not always lead to increased home runs. Bubic’s average fly ball distance is 148 feet, which puts him in the top 25% of the league in fly ball distance (min. 50 BBE). He also has a 21.1% infield fly ball rate, which is the best type of batted ball since it’s almost always caught. He also pitches in spacious Kauffman Stadium, which will keep the deeper fly balls in the field of play.

I would hesitate to buy in fully to Bubic’s increased fly ball rate because we’re really diving into the minutia of a 29.2 inning sample. It’s important to recognize and identify any possible shifts like this in a player early, but it’s also important to take them with a grain of salt and don’t assume it’s the new normal for a player, especially one as inexperienced as Bubic. Even with the positive results thus far, Bubic’s fastball is still a liability, and it would be nearly impossible for him to maintain a .238 BABIP with the fastball all season, even if these changes stick.

Speaking of BABIP, boy oh boy Bubic has been fortunate on balls in play this season. He has a .228 BABIP against thus far, along with an equally fortunate 88.6% strand rate and 3.6% HR/FB ratio. It would be extra difficult for Bubic to maintain his .194 BABIP against on the changeup since batters have a 29% line drive rate and 90.8 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch. His changeup is still a plus pitch, but it’s undeniably overperformed to this point.

Verdict:

Overall, Bubic’s season has been pretty strange. His 1.52 ERA is sparkling, but a 4.87 SIERA and 1.57 K/BB ratio tell a completely different story. I tend to buy into ERA predictors and strikeouts-to-walks more than surface stats like ERA, so I’d err on the side of caution with Bubic. There are things to like about his game. His changeup is legitimately a plus pitch and he has made positive changes with his fastball location, but altogether this is a low-upside profile that should only be used in streaming or deep league situations. He reminds me of a left-handed Zach Davies, and Davies has been known to go off on extended hot streaks that defy conventional baseball wisdom. However, he’s also been known to go on extended cold streaks, as we’ve seen in 2021 thus far with Davies. It’s how Bubic should be treated and why should be deployed with caution. His upside is low due to the lack of strikeouts and moderate win potential in Kansas City. His next start comes Thursday against these same Twins at home, and he is usable in that outing given the recent struggles and plethora of injuries to Minnesota’s lineup.

Justin Dunn, Seattle Mariners

9% Rostered

2021 Stats (Prior to this start): 39.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 1.5 K/BB ratio

05/29 vs. TEX: 5.2 IP, 2 H 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Justin got it Dunn on Saturday night, holding Texas to just one run will striking out eight Rangers. It wasn’t enough to earn a win thanks to poor support from Seattle’s lineup, but it still marks another dominant outing for the right-hander. Like Kris Bubic, Dunn has quietly been on a roll of late, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts and holding opponents to three runs or fewer in every start this season. Despite Dunn’s excellent results, fantasy managers have taken little notice of Dunn and he’s available in over 90% of Yahoo leagues. Are we right to overlook the young Mariner, or is there something more sustainable in this profile?

It’s easy to see how Dunn was overlooked in fantasy. He plays for team that’s been pumping out middling to mediocre arms over the last few years and the organization has plenty of more exciting pitching prospects such as Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Dunn doesn’t generate those sweet, sweet strikeouts we crave from our fantasy starters either, but it’s hard to ignore a pitcher who now has a 3.18 ERA through nine starts this season. On the mound Dunn uses a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. His fastball velocity has risen considerably this season, as he’s averaged 93.7 MPH with the heater thus far and has touched 97 on the gun. The curveball is his most commonly used breaking ball, and in fact Dunn has increased his curveball usage to 33.1% in 2021, making him one of the heaviest curveball users among MLB starters. The slider is his least used pitch, but it might be Dunn’s best offering, or at least can look like his best pitch at times.

While I do like the Justin Dunn slider, let’s start with his fastball because this pitch has really improved in 2021. Not only has Dunn increased his fastball velocity by 2.5 MPH, he’s increased the spin rate by 126 RPM and increased his vertical movement with the pitch. Here’s a year-to-year chart showcasing the vertical movement on Dunn’s fastball.

He’s gained over an inch this season, and the results can be seen in the pitch. Let’s compare a 2020 fastball against a lefty (top) to a 2021 fastball against a lefty (bottom).

Obviously, location matters here and I cherry-picked an especially bad result for him, but we can still visualize the changes. The 2020 fastball wasn’t only slow, it lacked movement and was easily crushed by a power-hitter like Joey Gallo. The 2021 fastball has subtle left-to-right movement, and the increased vert and spin rate give it a rising effect to opposing batters. As a result, Dunn’s swinging strike rate has risen a modest 1.1%, but his swing rate is up 8% and his chase rate is up by 7.3%. With his control issues, an increase in chase rate can only help Dunn, especially on days where he can’t find the zone.

As far as what caused these changes in Dunn, it’s hard to say. The best I could find is that he gave up dairy and lost ten pounds over the offseason, but if sacrificing dairy were the answer to higher fastball velocity, then we’d see jugs of almond milk littered in bullpens across MLB. Instead, it seems to be a concentrated training effort by Dunn to reach velocity levels he was capable of reaching at past levels. Of course, being in better physical shape doesn’t hurt either. The cause isn’t as important to us as fantasy players anyway, it’s more the sustainability of the result. Barring injury, or a late night pizza & ice cream bender, it seems like Dunn’s velocity increase is here to stay.

Beyond the fastball, Dunn has shifted his approach on the mound with increased curveball usage. Dunn has thrown his curveball 33.1% of the time, which is seventh-most among big league starters (min. 40 IP) and puts him on par with curveball specialists like Charlie Morton and Adam Wainwright. The curveball has stymied batters this season as well, as opponents are hitting just .149 with a .397 OPS and an 11.6% swing rate against the pitch. Batters really struggle to square this pitch up, as Dunn has allowed just a 9.7% line drive against the curveball thus far, along with a 58.1% fly ball rate. A fly ball rate that high is atypical of a curveball, but he does have a 27.8% infield fly ball rate and an 82.8 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch. It would be hard to have a problematic home run rate with such weak contact against. What makes the pitch so effective is the above average movement, as Dunn has 10 inches of drop above average and 7.1 inches of break above average. This makes the pitch kind of like a slower, loopier version of his slider, and the two complement each other well in his repertoire.

Speaking of the slider, it’s been Dunn’s best strikeout pitch on the year. Batters have struggled against this pitch to the tune of a .100 AVG, .297 OPS, and a 15% swinging strike rate. The slider has been touted as Dunn’s best pitch in season’s past, so it’s a little disappointing that he only uses the slider 14.6% of the time. He’s getting good surface results with the other pitches, so he may not have the impetus to switch things up yet, but Dunn could potentially raise his strikeout rate by increasing his slider usage. The reason he doesn’t use his slider more often is likely more than just going with what works, it’s likely because Dunn hasn’t always put himself in the position to use a slider.

Dunn’s control has been horrendous at the major league level, as he owns a career 16% walk rate in the majors. He has the third-highest walk rate among starters (min. 40 IP), and has issued multiple free passes in all but one start this season. His walk rate looks a little better if we excuse the first start of the season where Dunn walked eight batters, but it’s still at an untenable 11.2%. He’s skirted around this walk rate because of a microscopic .196 BABIP against. BABIP isn’t the “luck-o-meter” a lot of fantasy players sometimes treat it as, and Dunn has done a good job generating favorable contact for himself, but there’s no chance Dunn sustain this BABIP over a full season. Interestingly, Dunn does have a .184 BABIP over 97.2 big league innings, but that’s still a relatively small sample size and one cannot expect it to stay under .200 long term. His BABIP against was routinely over .300 in the minors, so unless the Mariners have the best fielders in MLB history behind him, Dunn is getting outs on balls in play at an unsustainable rate. Once more of those balls start falling for hits, his 82% strand rate will drop and more runs will cross the plate.

Verdict:

Dunn is a pitcher that has some clear talent and does a few things well, but the flaws are so apparent that it’s hard to recommend him outside of a streaming context. He’s kind of been a better version of John Gant, where no one really believes the results, but the good starts just keep coming. Dunn has more potential than Gant, and if he can reign in the walks, he should be able to stick it in the back-end of a big league rotation. As a streaming option it’s worth noting that Dunn has dominated bad lineups this season, with a 2.12 ERA against teams in the bottom-third of the league by wRC+. Maybe it’s not that impressive to dominate the Tigers, Rangers, and Orioles of the world, but you can squeeze fantasy value out of him. Otherwise, he’s not an add yet in standard leagues, but in deeper leagues he could provide quality innings.

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