Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 10

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. The youngsters keep on pitching well, and this week we're looking at a trio of 24-year-olds who came up big in their outings over the weekend.

This week we're looking at former top prospect Tarik Skubal, who fanned 11 White Sox over five innings to continue his hot streak. We're also looking at current top prospect Logan Gilbert, who is putting a rough start behind him and starting to look like he belongs in the majors. And we're rounding it out with mid-tier prospect in Patrick Sandoval of the Angels, who carved up the Mariners against Gilbert for 10 strikeouts.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 06/07/2021.

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Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

30% Rostered

2021 Stats (Prior to this start): 49 IP, 4.59 ERA, 5.79 FIP, 2.5 K/BB ratio

06/05 @ CWS: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Skubal, who posted a 6.14 ERA and 7.4 K/9 ratio over his first six starts, but has a 3.09 ERA and 14.1 K/9 over his last six starts. Even with the hot streak, the fantasy community has shown an uncharacteristic restraint with Skubal. Given the hype that surrounded Skubal as a prospect during his debut last season, it’s surprising that he isn’t rostered in more leagues. Perhaps the early season numbers are driving up his ratios too much, or perhaps fantasy players are still carrying the pain of Skubal’s disastrous rookie campaign and early start to the season. Whatever the reason for the restraint, Skubal had an exceptionally good start on Saturday with a career-high 11 strikeouts and deserves another look by us fantasy managers.

A brief look at Skubal’s minor league numbers tells you why he was so hyped as a prospect. The dude was a strikeout machine in the minors. He never had a strikeout rate under 30% as a minor leaguer, and had a monster 48.2% strikeout rate at Double-A in 2019. Skubal overpowered hitters with a deadly fastball-slider combination that earned rave reviews from scouts, who saw a front-end starter as a possibility for Skubal’s future. Unlike many hotshot prospects, Skubal has more than just the one-two punch. He also throws a slow curve to help challenge right-handed batters, and has developed a changeup over the last few seasons that has rounded out his repertoire, giving Skubal a four-pitch mix that should theoretically allow him to succeed as a major league starter.

Although the fastball-slider combo has worked wonders for him in the minors, the changeup has been crucial to Skubal’s success—or failure, at the major league level. Skubal has been tinkering with the pitch, and while we normally like to see pitchers make changes, it was not working for Skubal in this case. He went from a traditional changeup to a split-change, and opposing batters could not have been more happy. Opponents crushed Skubal’s splitter for a .333 AVG and a whopping .917 SLG. The only thing this splitter did was make fantasy managers split from their relationship with Skubal, as it looked like he was in for another season of growing pains. Skubal felt the heat too, and has reverted back to his previous changeup over his last few starts. He was throwing his splitter 13% of the time in April, but has lowered his usage to about 3% since May 7 when his hot streak began. Unlike the splitter, Skubal’s changeup has dominated opponents over his last six starts for a .200 AVG against, a 20.8% swinging strike rate, and an insanely low 50% contact rate. If a batter swings at Skubal’s changeup, it’s a coinflip as to whether they can hit it. Skubal’s changeup has excellent measurables too, as he has 3 inches of horizontal break above league average. He also has a 1473 RPM average spin rate, which is about 800 RPM lower than his fastball to help increase deception with the pitch. An effective changeup like this should allow Skubal to maintain decent platoon splits, and that’s been true thus far as right-handed batters have a .356 wOBA against Skubal this season, while lefties have a .362 wOBA against Skubal.

The changeup has been Skubal’s best strikeout pitch by whiff rate this season, but his best strikeout pitch by raw numbers is his slider. The Skubal slider was renowned as he was coming up, and for good reason. It’s a hard, sharp slider that darts away from left-handed batters and saws-off righties inside. Opponents have managed just a .196 AVG against Skubal’s slider this season, along with a 14% swinging strike rate on the year. That swinging strike rate has risen over his hot streak, as Skubal is sporting a 27% swinging strike rate over his last six starts. Here’s an example of a Skubal slider from this most recent start.

Hard, sharp, and inside is a nightmare for a right-handed batter who’s used to seeing the ball well against southpaws. With the slider finally living up to the hype and Skubal getting his best changeup results ever, the sky is the limit for Skubal’s strikeout rate, especially in a the current high-strikeout era of MLB.

The strikeouts are great, but it’s not all rainbows and unicorns for Skubal. He can’t escape his trouble with walks, as he still has a 10.2% BB rate over his six-start hot streak. Sure, it’s better than his 13.5% walk rate prior to this stretch, but 10.2% still puts him in the bottom ten in walk rate among starters (min. 50 IP). Part of his problem is that his pitches don’t have an especially high chase rate given how good his strikeout rate is, with both his slider and changeup sporting about 25.5% chase rates. It’s tough to have such a low chase rate since Skubal only has a 54% zone rate with his slider and 42.7% zone rate with his changeup. Sure, batters swing-and-miss against these pitches a lot, but when they’ve been able to lay off they can earn a free pass from Skubal. Skubal’s biggest flaw has always been command, and this is an issue he will battle all season.

In addition to the walks, Skubal has struggled with the long ball this season, having served up 2.17 HR/9. He does have a rather high 17.3% HR/FB ratio, but Skubal also has a 52.4% flyball rate on the season, which is the highest among all starters (min. 50 IP). Pair that with a 42.4% hard hit rate against and a 92.9 MPH average exit velocity on his fastball, it’s easy to see how so many balls leave the yard against Skubal. What’s interesting is that Skubal never had a home run issue in the minors, and only surrendered seven home runs total across 144 minor league innings compared to 22 home runs allowed in 86 major league innings. None of his existing pitches have a ground ball rate over 40%, so it’s hard to see him righting this ship. Skubal has introduced a sinker over his last few starts, and an effective sinker could help him keep the ball down. We’ll need to track both the sinker usage and effectiveness over his next few starts to see whether this will help curb his home run issues, or if this is another failed experiment.

Verdict:

Pitchers with this amount of strikeout upside are few and far between, and for that reason Skubal should be added in all leagues. At his best, he could carve up opposing lineups with a 30-33% K rate. Like many high-strikeout youngsters, Skubal struggles with walks and home runs, which will eventually come back around to bite him. Even so, the potential outweighs the downside and Skubal must be added.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

23% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 5.3 K/BB ratio

06/06 @ LAA: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K

Like Tarik Skubal, Gilbert was a top pitching prospect that struggled upon first arrival to the big leagues. After his first three starts, it looked like the 24-year-old was simply not ready for the majors and need more time to develop in Triple-A. Gilbert has finally shown signs of improvement over his two most recent starts, posting a 1.64 ERA and 9.82 K/9 over 11 innings. With the injury to Justin Dunn, Gilbert’s spot in Seattle’s rotation is relatively secure. Gilbert might be here to stay in the majors, but should he stay in your fantasy lineup?

Gilbert was a first round draft pick by the Mariners in 2018, and the young righty has been their most prized pitching prospect ever since. With an imposing 6’6”, 225-pound frame, Gilbert boasts a strong four-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. His fastball has been the pitch that’s impressed scouts the most, averaging mid-90s velocity with the ability to touch 97. Like Tarik Skubal, Gilbert’s slider is his best breaking ball, though he throws it much slower and loopier than Skubal. Gilbert rounds his arsenal out with a slow curveball he uses 13.2% of the time, and a show-me changeup he uses 3.2% of the time.

Gilbert has a complete repertoire, but it was all about the fastball and slider in his start on Sunday, using the two pitches a combined 83.8% of the time. The combination worked for him, as Gilbert piled up 17 of his 20 whiffs with the pair of pitches, with an impressive 45% whiff rate on his slider. Gilbert’s four-seamer was on point in this one as well, as he showed off his velocity with a season-high 95.3 MPH average fastball velocity. Gilbert’s fastball velocity has been ticking up over his last few starts, and he’s averaged better than 95 MPH in each of his last two starts. This velocity jump has coincided with some excellent outcomes, as Gilbert’s fastball whiff rate has risen with each successive start, while his fastball batting average against has dropped with each start. That’s a good sign for Gilbert because opponents have demolished his fastball this season for a .365 AVG and .635 SLG.  The pitch also has an average launch angle of 18-degrees and average exit velocity of 95.5 MPH against, which means batters are essentially averaging a smoked line drive against his fastball. Batters do have a 44.4% line drive rate against the fastball currently, but that number has also been dropping as his fastball velocity has risen.

The increase in fastball velocity does more than improve the fastball performance, it helps keep hitters off balance and creates more deception with his secondary pitches, particularly his slider. As mentioned earlier, Gilbert’s slider had a 45% whiff rate in this start, and now has a monster 36.5% whiff rate on the season. Opposing hitters have been unable to handle this pitch as well, with just one hit off of Gilbert’s slider thus far, good for a meager .037 AVG. Although it’s categorized as a slider, Gilbert’s offering is more of a slurve, coming in slower around 82 MPH and diving downwards rather than sweeping across. Here’s an example from this start.

Watching this pitch and Tarik Skubal’s offering and it’s a wonder to think they are both categorized as a slider. They don’t bear much resemblance to one another. Regardless, Gilbert’s slider looks like a legitimate strikeout pitch, and he could begin to replicate the high strikeout rate we saw in the minors.

Gilbert’s biggest problem in the majors thus far, besides his fastball being absolutely clobbered, has been the long ball. His home run rate isn’t horrible at 1.25 HR/9, but his 50% flyball rate and 9.7% HR/FB ratio suggest that home run rate could rise. Even more troubling, he has just a 3.2% infield flyball rate and has an average flyball distance of 233 feet, the highest among all MLB pitchers (min. 50 BBE).  He’s only given up three bombs, and two were in the first start, so we might be overanalyzing a small sample size. However, with such a high flyball rate, far flyball distance, and high average exit velocity against, Gilbert’s pitching style is conducive to home run issues. It’s only 21.1 innings so we don’t want to condemn him to a career of gopheritis, but this is reason for hesitation.

Verdict:

Although I’m more excited about Skubal, Gilbert is also displaying positive signs of growth in a young, talented arm. He has the fastball-slider combination to get his strikeouts, but isn’t overly reliant on the pair of pitches thanks to his curveball and changeup.  He's got all the makings of a good major leaguer, and while he probably won't put it all together this year, it’s hard to pass up this type of potential two months into the season. He should be on a team in leagues of 12 teams or deeper, and has the opportunity to really earn my trust over the next few starts.

Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels

2% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 21.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 5.67 FIP, 1.7 K/BB ratio

06/06 vs. SEA: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

It’s not often that a pitcher is analyzed in this piece after raising his season ERA, but Patrick Sandoval’s start on Sunday was not only the best of his young career, but one of the best individual swinging strike performances of the season. I had no intention of writing about Sandoval until I came across his whiff number while reviewing Logan Gilbert’s start. To my surprise, Sandoval struck out 10 batters with a total of 32 swinging strikes. That’s right, 32. From Patrick Sandoval, a dude who had just 43 whiffs total and a 18.5% K rate on the year prior to this start.  Was this a fluke, or was Sandoval a sleeping giant this entire time?

Sandoval was considered one of the Angels’ top pitching prospects over the last few seasons, but the Angels have had a dearth of talent in their farm system for quite some time, especially on the pitching side prior to drafting Reid Detmers. Sandoval throws hard for a lefty, averaging 93-94 MPH with his four-seam and two-seam fastball. He has a complete repertoire as well, with a slider, changeup, and curveball, using each pitch over 10% of the time. Sandoval has played with his pitch mix over his time in the majors, and has made his most drastic change yet this year.

The changeup has been Sandoval’s go-to pitch this season, as Sandoval has increased his changeup usage to 35.7% of the time, more than any other pitch. The pitch absolutely wrecked the Mariners on Sunday, with Sandoval racking up 17 whiffs with his changeup alone for an obscene 68% whiff rate. Admittedly, Sandoval wasn’t exactly facing the ’27 Yankees in this start, with Mitch Haniger the only M’s starter with an OPS north of .715, though Haniger himself was a strikeout victim three times. Obviously this start boosted his whiff rate quite a bit, but Sandoval has had a strong whiff rate with the pitch all season. In fact, this start wasn’t even his highest whiff rate percentage with the changeup this season. Sandoval had a 75% whiff rate and nine whiffs with his changeup on 5/22 against Oakland. The pitch has nine inches of break above average, which means it can act as more of a breaking ball than just a show-me off-speed pitch to use against righties. Sandoval has been racking up swings-and-misses with the changeup for a while now, with a career 26.1% swinging strike rate against the pitch. Sandoval has been able to put up good strikeout numbers in the minors, and with increased changeup usage, those strikeouts could finally translate to the majors.

It’s not just about the changeup for Sandoval either, as his slider has proven quite effective at generating whiffs. The pitch had an 80% whiff rate in this start and has a 23.6% whiff rate on the year. Between the slider and changeup, Sandoval has two pitches with a swinging strike rate over 23%, which is rather impressive since most starters don’t have one pitch with a swinging strike rate that high. The slider has been good historically as well, since Sandoval has a .176 AVG against and a 22.4% swinging strike rate with the pitch in his major league career. Sandoval appears to have two really effective strikeout pitches to play with, which begs the question, why hasn’t he been better prior to Sunday?

Many pitchers would kill for one pitch with the results of Sandoval’s slider or changeup, and he has both of them at his disposal. Yet, he owns a career 4.96 ERA, 5.16 FIP, and 2.43 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, Sandoval suffers from an ailment many before him have known, which is bad fastball syndrome. Pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka and his teammates Dylan Bundy and Alex Cobb possess excellent strikeout pitches, but their main fastball just can’t hang against major league hitters, which leads to immense volatility on a start-by-start basis. When the off-speed stuff is working the pitcher looks great, but when there’s no feel for the pitch, all heck breaks loose. Batters have feasted on Sandoval’s four-seam fastball this season for a .400 AVG and .800 SLG. He introduced a sinker this season to perhaps try and alleviate his reliance on a weak four-seamer, and while the sinker has technically fared better, it still has a .308 AVG and .654 SLG against.  His sinker has a dismal 1962 RPM average spin rate, while his four-seamer has a 2174 RPM average spin rate. His fastball might have decent velocity, but a lack of spin and movement makes it easier for hitters to stay on top of and not be fooled.

This may not be a fixable issue, at least not in-season, especially with MLB hell bent on stamping out all sticky substance usage. Hopefully, the sinker turns out to be the answer for him, but we’ll need to see a larger sample before casting judgement. The best thing Sandoval can do is lean more heavily on his changeup and slider to shield his fastball from overexposure. That’s not an encouraging strategy for a 24-year-old, as that’s an approach commonly adopted by aging veterans who’ve lost a tick or two on their heater. Sandoval has been doing this this season, with a career low fastball usage rate of 42.1%. He used it under 40% of the time in each of his last two starts, and that may be the sweet spot for him.

Verdict:

After this start, I can safely say Patrick Sandoval is capable of more than I ever gave him credit for and he’s got more potential than his early career numbers, including the peripheral stats like FIP and SIERA, suggest. He needs to develop his fastball into a passable offering. Unless that happens he’ll remain a volatile arm. Still, he’s available in more leagues than pitchers like Jorge Lopez and Matt Shoemaker. Sandoval certainly has more potential then either of those two. In deeper leagues Sandoval is worth a flier, and he’s a pitcher that’s streamable in the right circumstance, which is more than most thought of him prior to this start. He technically only has a rotation spot until Jose Quintana returns, but it wouldn’t take much for Sandoval to out pitch Quintana and snatch the rotation spot for himself.

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