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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. For the past two weeks I have looked at pitchers' various movement profiles for curveballs and changeups using Statcast's pitch movement tab. For the final stop on the pitch movement tour I will take a look at sliders.
Statcast's pitch movement data breaks out each pitch by vertical and horizontal movement in inches compared to average movement. For vertical movement, positive numbers refer to relative rise while negative numbers refer to relative drop. For horizontal movement, positive numbers refer to relative break while negative numbers refer to relative lack of break.
Rather than choose studs and duds for these specific articles, I will pick one pitcher from each of the four quadrants and analyze how their particular movement has helped or hurt them this season. Pitchers were only considered if they have thrown the pitch at least 100 times. Pitchers' off-speed pitches are key to racking up strikeouts and swings-and-misses, so taking a look at them can shed light onto their overall fantasy performance. As I have mentioned in previous articles, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs, but will choose to analyze more under-the-radar/less-obvious players or studs who have been struggling to give readers the most useful insight. You all know the drill by now, so let's investigate some slider movement!
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Slider: Strong Drop and Break
All stats current as of Sunday, June 13.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
Vertical Drop: 3.8 inches (9%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: 7.4 inches (77%) greater than average
Our first pitcher comes from a rich Astros farm system and has surprised the fantasy world. Luis Garcia has had a solid rookie season to this point, sticking in the rotation with a 5-4 record and a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 28.1% strikeout rate. Part of his success can be attributed to his massive, almost cartoon-like slider. How has Garcia used the pitch to fuel his success?
Garcia mainly relies on a four-seam fastball (47.2% usage) and a cutter (20.9% usage), but his slider is his main off-speed pitch (15.6% usage). His top three pitches have a nice variation in terms of velocity and spin direction, which has helped him maintain his strikeout rate. His cutter has actually been his best swing-and-miss pitch with a crazy 25.7% swinging-strike rate, but his slider weighs in with a solid 15.5% swinging-strike rate. Garcia also has an above-average chase rate, thanks in part to the massive amount of horizontal break and overall break and drop his slider achieves. He has done a great job of keeping both his cutter and slider on the corners/edges of the strike zone, generating either swings and misses or weak contact.
Garcia has done a solid job of mixing his pitches and locating them, leading to positive results. He has above-average Statcast metrics across the board along with a good batted-ball profile. He should continue to be a fantasy asset as long as he can hit his corners and get hitters to chase his slider and cutter.
Slider: Strong Drop
All stats current as of Sunday, June 13.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers
Vertical Drop: 5.4 inches (15%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: 5.7 inches (-55%) less than average
Our second pitcher has been a useful fantasy streamer at times this season, but hasn't been the most consistent starter. Dane Dunning has a 4.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate over 12 starts. His main secondary pitch is a sinking slider to accompany his sinker and changeup, and he has found a good deal of success with it. Can he lean on his slider to find more consistent results throughout the season?
The interesting thing about Dunning's slider is that it has been by far his most successful pitch, but he has only thrown it 22% of the time. He has thrown his sinker the majority of the time (55.5% usage), which has been his least successful pitch. His slider and changeup have been his two best-located pitches and have the best swinging-strike rates, with his slider coming in at an impressive 22.8%.
Data from baseballsavant.com
All in all, Dunning has shown some positive signs, but has been relying too much on his sinker. He has solid secondary options that he could implement more, particularly his slider. I would be willing to buy into Dunning beyond fantasy streamer status if he traded some of his sinker use for his slider.
Slider: Strong Break
All stats current as of Sunday, June 13.
Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
Vertical Drop: 1 inch (-3%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 5 inches (108%) greater than average
We'll take a quick detour into the realm of relief pitchers. Daniel Bard was a great story last season, joining the Rockies in his first big-league action since 2013. He has continued to pitch well as the team's closer in 2021, converting eight of 11 save opportunities with a 3.60 ERA and a 30.7% strikeout rate. He relies on almost exclusively on a fastball-slider split and his slider moves a ton. Its frisbee-like movement generates horizontal break that is over 100% greater than the league average. The Rockies may not win a ton of games, but that doesn't mean that Bard cannot be a fantasy contributor, especially with his slider.
Bard's slider is so successful for a few reasons other than its movement. First, he throws hard in general. His fastball clocks in at 97.9 MPH and his slider at 87.2 MPH. The velocity and movement combination makes for a filthy pitch. He has kept the pitch in the zone at times, but it is simply an overpowering pitch, as indicated by his 18.6% swinging-strike rate with it. He also gets a pretty wide range of spin direction on the pitch, so it may not look exactly the same to a hitter each time it comes in.
Bard's fantasy value is limited by the team he currently pitches for, but he still has the closer's role on lockdown for the forseeable future and racks up strikeouts. His slider is a main part of his impressive comeback story, thanks to its velocity and huge movement. Bard should continue to be a valuable fantasy player in deeper fantasy leagues of all formats.
Slider: Below-Average Drop and Break
All stats current as of Sunday, June 13.
Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
Vertical Drop: 5 inches (-14%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 5.3 inches (-85%) less than average
Our final pitcher has had a couple of rough seasons recently, but seems to be generally turning things around in 2021. Johnny Cueto is 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 19.8% strikeout rate for the first-place Giants. He relies on his slider a good deal with 26.9% usage, although it has little relative overall movement compared to other sliders in the league. Can Cueto continue to find success with his slider so heavily in the pitch mix?
The interesting thing here is that Cueto has used his slider so much to this point, yet it has been by far his worst pitch. The pitch isn't thrown hard at 84.3 MPH and has little movement in either plane, so perhaps it is not as deceptive of a pitch as it could be. His 6.3% swinging-strike rate with the pitch would suggest as much. Further, Cueto has had difficulty locating his slider. He has thrown it both in the top and bottom of the zone, but it tends to get too much of the plate either way. Put this all together and Cueto has allowed a poor .367 batting average, .735 slugging percentage, and .478 xwOBA with his slider this season.
Cueto has done some things right this season. His batted-ball profile is decent and his 4.09 SIERA reflects that. However, his slider has not been effective. It may be that the pitch does not move much, but it won't stand a chance of being effective if it is not located well. Cueto's changeup, on the other hand has been a very successful pitch, so he does have other off-speed options to choose from. I think he will either need to move away from his slider or focus on locating it better if he hopes to continue being a serviceable pitcher to the Giants and fantasy managers.
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