Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 11

June 16, 2021

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. This week we're spending some time in the NL East, as we saw three strong starts from pitchers on three different NL East teams worthy of a further look.

We're breaking down the continued hot start for Atlanta lefty Tucker Davidson, who now owns a 1.53 ERA on the year. We're also looking at former top prospect Joe Ross, who dominated the Giants on Sunday. Rounding things out is unknown righty Zach Thompson of Miami, who is yet another young Marlins pitcher to earn fantasy attention.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 06/14/2021.

Tucker Davidson, Atlanta Braves

22% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 5.75 K/BB ratio

06/09 @ PHI: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Davidson is the latest in a plethora of young arms we’ve seen cycle in-and-out of Atlanta’s rotation over the last few seasons as the pitching-needy Braves continuously throw spaghetti against the wall to try and fill out their rotation. Unlike the Bryse Wilsons and Kyle Wrights of the world, Davidson is actually getting batters out and keeping runs off the board, sporting a stellar 1.53 ERA through three starts and blanking Philadelphia on Wednesday. With Mike Soroka officially shelved for the year and Huascar Ynoa not expected back for several months, the only thing preventing Davidson from earning a full time rotation gig is himself, but can the young lefty keep getting it done? More importantly, how useful can he be in fantasy leagues?

A 19^th round pick out of Midland College in Texas, Davidson rose through Atlanta’s system through strong minor league performance, including a 2.92 ERA in 129.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. He came into the season as Atlanta’s third-ranked pitching prospect and seventh-ranked overall prospect by MLB pipeline. He has found success on the strength of his four-seam fastball, a mid-90s offering that can touch 96-97. He pairs that fastball with a sweeping 87 MPH slider that has been his go-to punch out pitch as a prospect and in his short time in the majors. Davidson rounds out his repertoire with a 79 MPH curveball that he uses about 10% of the time and almost exclusively against left-handed batters. It’s a classic arsenal for a left-hander, and one that if commanded well could play as a big league starter.

Davidson’s best strikeout pitch has been his slider, which opponents are hitting just .077 against with a 21% swinging strike rate on the season. It’s a hard, sharp offering that can be used effectively against hitters from both sides of the plate, which is exactly what Davidson has done this season with a .197 wOBA allowed to lefties and a .234 wOBA against righties. Here’s an example of a Davidson slider from earlier this season.

The pitch was Davidson’s primary source of whiffs in this most recent start, as he netted 10 of his 13 swinging strikes with his slider. Davidson has just a 7.57 K/9 rate thus far, but based on the slider performance and his minor league history, Davidson could raise that K/9 to a strikeout per inning.

Davidson’s fastball velocity has been steadily rising with each start, and he averaged a season-high 93.6 MPH with the heater in his most recent start against Philadelphia. With an average of just 2035 RPM his fastball has underwhelming spin, but the pitch has been effective at generating ground balls, thanks primarily to his above average break. Thus far opponents have a 47.8% ground ball rate and 2-degree average launch angle against Davidson’s heater, which has helped contribute to microscopic 0.51 HR/9. Preventing long balls has been one of Davidson’s most consistent skills throughout the minors, as he has a 0.4 HR/9 across 401.1 minor league innings along with a HR/FB ratio routinely under 7%.

A skillset like this means Davidson would regularly outperform an ERA predictor like xFIP, which attempts to normalize home runs by adjusting the pitcher’s FIP if he had a league average HR/FB. That formula assumes the pitcher will revert back to the league average, which might not be true for a pitcher like Davidson who has displayed the ability to limit home runs over time. Long story short, don’t open Davidson’s FanGraphs page and panic when you see a 4.24 xFIP. It doesn’t necessarily mean disaster is around the corner for a pitcher like him.

A bigger indicator of disaster for Davidson is his good fortune on balls-in-play. He has a .188 BABIP against and 89.7% strand rate. His fastball has been especially fortunate, since opponents are pulverizing the ball for a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity against. There is also a large disparity between the actual outcomes and expected outcomes, as Davidson’s fastball has a .250 AVG and .292 xBA, along with a .393 SLG and .564 xSLG. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, predictors and expected stats may not accurately represent future outcomes for Davidson, especially since he has a 2-degree average launch angle against his fastball. However, a nearly 200-point gap is still cause for concern. He also has large gaps between actual results and expected results with his slider, as opponents have a .225 xBA and .270 xSLG compared to an .077 AVG and SLG (he hasn’t allowed any XBH with the pitch) against the slider. The expected stats would still be solid outcomes, but there’s simply no way Davidson can maintain his current numbers on balls-in-play with either the fastball or slider.

I’ve primarily covered his fastball and slider to this point. That’s because Davidson relies heavily on these two offerings, throwing either the fastball and slider almost 90% of the time. He has a curveball he’s used 9.6% of the time, but he throws them almost exclusively against left-handed hitters. He only threw six curveballs in this start, and that was because Philadelphia only started one left-handed batter. Clearly, Davidson does not trust the pitch against opposite handed batters. If it avoids him getting hammered by righties then Davidson is best off not throwing it to them. However, that means he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher versus right-handed hitters. Obviously, that will hinder his development, and long term Davidson will either need to develop confidence in his curveball or improve his changeup so it can be used more regularly.

Verdict:

Davidson has a great set of tools to work with and he has the ability to hack it in the rotation full time. He still has more progress to make, however it probably won’t happen in the middle of the season, which will cap his upside as a streamer or back-end rotation piece. He still has value, but he shouldn’t be considered an every-turn starter just yet. His next start comes Tuesday vs. Boston, a team with a below average 94 wRC+ but a top-five team strikeout rate against lefties. Davidson is usable, but not a must-start by any means in this one.

Joe Ross, Washington Nationals

9% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 54.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 2.1 K/BB ratio

06/13 vs. SF: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

The clock was turned back on Sunday as Joe Ross dominated the Giants for eight shutout innings and nine strikeouts to zero walks in a 5-0 victory. This was the first time Ross had thrown eight innings and the first time he had at least nine strikeouts since 2017. Injuries and the COVID pandemic have robbed Ross of much of the last three seasons prior to 2021, but he’s still only 28 years old and if healthy, is in his physical prime. How good can prime Joe Ross be? His major league career has been so spastic that’s it hard to gauge just what Ross can do when healthy and in the rotation full time.

Ross gets it done on the mound with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. Like his brother Tyson, Joe Ross is known for his slider, a pitch he uses 32.5% of the time and used 35% of the time in his start against the Giants. The sinker is Ross’s primary fastball as he uses it 43.9% of the time compared to just 16.8% four-seam usage. His changeup is more of a show-me changeup, as Ross only uses it 6.8% of the time and primarily against left-handed batters. Even with his injury history, Ross has maintained his fastball velocity, averaging 93.5 MPH with his sinker and 93.8 MPH with his four-seamer this season. The sinker is slightly harder than his peak, while the four-seamer is 0.5 MPH slower than his peak. However, it is worth noting that Ross didn’t start incorporating his four-seamer much until after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018.

The most important pitch for Ross’s success is his slider. The pitch has been his bread-and-butter since his days as a prospect in the Padres’ farm system and is what helped him find success in the majors. Ross’s slider has stymied opposing hitters this season, as batters have just a .198 AVG, and .239 wOBA against the pitch thus far along with a 14.8% swinging strike rate. Admittedly, that swinging strike rate is a little underwhelming for a slider, and his slider is actually outpaced by his four-seam fastball in the strikeout department.  Ross has a 16.3% swinging strike rate with his four-seamer on the year. Ross also had just four whiffs on 21 swings with his slider in this start against San Francisco for a pedestrian 19% whiff rate.

Spin rate has been a huge focus in baseball news as of late, and it’s fair to say Ross wasn’t using foreign substances as he has just a 1951 RPM with his slider. That's the second-lowest slider spin rate among qualified pitchers behind Boston reliever Garrett Whitlock. The measurables on Ross’s slider aren’t anything to write home about either, as he hovers around leave average in vertical and horizontal movement. As excited as I was about Ross’s slider, it seems like the game has evolved and shifted so much since he was last an effective starter that his slider is no longer an above average breaking ball. Ross has never been a strikeout king, but pre-injury he routinely had swinging strike rates above 20% with his slider. However, he hasn’t done that since 2017. It would be difficult to see him maintain a K/9 above a strikeout per inning.

If the slider wasn’t the catalyst behind Ross’s nine strikeout performance, what was? Well, his two fastballs account for eight of his 12 whiffs in this start, as Ross earned five on his sinker and 3 on his four-seamer. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, Ross’s four-seamer has been his best strikeout pitch this season and he had a 50% whiff rate on the four-seamer in this one. Ross has never had a swinging strike rate near 16.3% with his four-seamer in the past and he isn’t throwing exceptionally harder this season compared to previous years. There is one notable change he’s made with the pitch, which has been throwing the pitch up above the zone more often. Below is a heatmap comparison of Ross’s four-seam location from this season (top) compared to his career prior to 2021 (bottom).

He’s throwing it up at the armpits, which can be an effective strategy to generate whiffs while sacrificing walk prevention. Ross has a 47.1 % zone rate with his four-seam fastball, which well below his career mark of 50.2%. The contact rate against his fastball is just 65% compared to a 77.2% career contact rate against the offering. This type of usage should help Ross inflate his strikeout numbers with his four-seam fastball.

It’s a good thing Ross is getting whiffs with the pitch because it’s not good for much else. Opponents have feasted on Ross’s fastball for a .350 AVG and .800 SLG. Sure, those numbers are probably a bit of bad luck, but his .293 xBA and .669 xSLG aren’t much better. We can’t count too much on luck regression to help Ross because it’s taken a .259 BABIP for him to even have a 4.19 ERA. His 4.92 FIP predicts doom for Ross going forward, and while I don’t think he’ll reach his worst-case scenario of an ERA over five, it’s hard to see how Ross could sustain success. His slider can’t fool hitters regularly, his best strikeout pitch is a fastball that’s getting crushed when hitters do make contact, and he’s a sinkerball pitcher who’s sinker has a 35.2% groundball rate compared to a 25.4% line drive rate. There’s just not a lot to like in his profile, and Sunday’s start looks like the case of a very average pitcher performing well above his ability.

Verdict:

There was a time when Joe Ross was an exciting fantasy sleeper, but that was 2016-2017. Injuries and a game that evolved past him have made him less and less exciting, even with the occasional good start. Unless you are desperate for a streamer or are in a deep league and just need an innings-eater with a relatively safe rotation spot, there’s no reason to add Ross.

Zach Thompson, Miami Marlins

0% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 15 IP, 6.60 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 10.5 K/BB ratio

06/12 vs. ATL: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Between Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and Sandy Alcantara, the young Marlins hurlers have been good to fantasy players over the past few years. Miami has been so good at churning out talented young arms that anytime a new Marlins pitcher finds success my interest is immediately piqued. Thompson isn’t that young at 27 years old, and isn’t really a Marlins’ prospect as he spent his entire minor league career with the White Sox until inking a minor league deal with Miami this offseason. Regardless, the big right-hander turned in a good outing Saturday, and with Elieser Hernandez out for an extended period, Thompson has the opportunity to claim a rotation spot for himself.

At 6’7” and 230 lbs, Thompson is an imposing presence on the mound and has decent stuff to match his size. Thompson throws both a two-seam and four-seam fastball, both of which sit around 93-94 MPH. His most prominent secondary pitch is an 88 MPH cutter he uses 39.7% of the time and Thompson rounds out his repertoire with a looping 77 MPH curveball. Like many tall pitchers, Thompson struggles with command and free passes, with walk rates routinely above 10% in the minor leagues. He’s reigned those walks in this season, with a microscopic 3% walk rate between the majors and minors. However, it’s an admittedly small sample size. Even with the walks, Thompson has raised his strikeout game over the last couple years with a strikeout rate north of 24% ever year since 2018. His rise in strikeouts coincided with a move to the bullpen in the minors, so it remains to be seen whether he could sustain a high strikeout rate as a starter, but he’s off to a good start.

The cutter is Thompson’s main weapon of choice and was his best pitch as a prospect. Batters have struggled against the pitch this season with a .154 AVG and .254 SLG against. An 88 MPH offering, the cutter has shown remarkable drop and spin rate with 2.4 inches of drop above league average and a 2576 RPM spin rate, which ranks him among the league’s best. The pitch can be described (rather crudely) as a “slutter”, a slider-cutter hybrid that doesn’t quite move as much as a traditional slider, but is far away enough from his fastball to transcend the traditional cutter label. Here’s a few examples of the pitch from this start.

The drop on the second pitch is exceptional for a cutter, and the pitch profiles as an exceptional ground ball pitch, though it’s far too early to tell where his ground ball rate might land. He regularly maintained ground ball rates above 45% in the minors, so a rise in ground ball rate could be in order for Thompson. His cutter doesn’t sweep from side-to-side or dive into the dirt like a slider, but it has the characteristics of a slider and should be able to generate a decent amount of whiffs for a cutter. Cutters normally lag behind other secondary offerings like sliders and changeups in terms of whiff rate. Thompson did earn eight whiffs on 18 swings with the pitch in this start, but that’s probably near the peak of what he can achieve with the pitch on a given day.

After the cutter, Thompson’s most used pitch is his four-seam fastball. Unlike his cutter, opponents have had no problem with the pitch this season. Thus far, opposing batters are hitting .462 with a .615 SLG against Thompson’s four-seamer, along with a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity. He’s only thrown 42 four-seamers, so it’s too early to freak out at these numbers, but they aren’t exactly encouraging. Thompson has been the anti-Joe Ross with his fastball, pounding the zone, especially the middle and high zone. Thompson has a history of control problems while Ross does not, so it would be hard for him to pull off such an approach. Like his cutter, Thompson’s fastball does have above average spin rate. That combined with his long extension to the plate should create a rising effect with the heater, allowing it to play above it’s middling velocity. His four-seamer probably isn’t going to light the world on fire, but it should perform better than it has to this point.

The wildcard in Thompson’s arsenal is definitely his curveball because he’s yet to allow a hit with the pitch and has a monster 60% whiff rate with his curveball thus far. The problem is that he’s only thrown 23 curveballs in the majors, 14 of which came in this start. Unlike his other pitches, it doesn’t have exceptional spin at just 2307 RPM, which is mediocre for a curveball. It hasn’t shown good vertical movement, but it’s horizontal movement has been well above average. He’s also thrown the pitch equally to lefties and righties, which can be rare with a curveball. Unfortunately, I think we need more data with this pitch (and all of his pitches really) before making a judgement. It’s off to a promising start, but we’ll have to see if Thompson can maintain this performance.

Verdict:

There’s things to like in Thompson’s profile, like his “slutter” pitch and his curveball performance. There’s also things to dislike in Thompson’s profile, like his fastball performance and spotty track record. The Marlins also only let him go for 66 pitches, so he might struggle to go deep into games, especially since he was a reliever at Triple-A before joining Miami’s rotation. In deep leagues or NL-only leagues he might be worth a shot, but he’s nowhere near standard league relevant yet. Thompson is more of a name to remember than one to add right now in standard leagues.

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