MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/23/2025)

June 23, 2025

Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, James Wood, and Adolis Garcia.

We've got a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday, forcing us to dig a little deeper to find value in our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Soto, James Wood, Trevor Larnach, and Adolis Garcia. Each of these players is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup.

The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, June 23, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/23/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, June 23:

• Paul Goldschmidt (+350)
• Juan Soto (+390)
• James Wood (+425)
• Trevor Larnach (+500)
• Adolis Garcia (+550)

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Goldschmidt is slashing .298/.358/.447 with eight home runs in 303 plate appearances this season. The veteran first baseman has trimmed his strikeout rate from 26.5% to 17.8% to go along with an impressive 126 wRC+.

Back-to-back in the Bronx 🤯

Paul Goldschmidt sends a laser down the line! pic.twitter.com/nO5zxCiin8

— MLB (@MLB) June 19, 2025

We all know that Goldschmidt punishes lefties, as highlighted by a 247 wRC+ this season and 171 wRC+ for his career.

That's good news for tonight because Nick Lodolo is on the mound for the Reds. The 27-year-old lefty has been much worse at home, putting up a 5.40 ERA with nine homers allowed in 38.1 innings.

Lodolo also allows more home runs vs righties, featuring a 1.26 HR/9 against them, compared to 0.66 HR/9 vs lefties.

On top of that, we've got favorable batter-vs-pitcher data here. Goldschmidt has gone 4-for-8 with two home runs and one double in his career against Lodolo.

Let's not forget that this game is being played at Great American Ball Park, which is the most homer-friendly environment in MLB. The weather bodes well for home runs, too, including hot and muggy temperatures, which make it tougher to pitch. With that in mind, we can see why Goldschmidt is so heavily favored at (+350) odds tonight. I'm willing to make the move due to these factors.

Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Soto has been on fire in June, slashing .328/.494/.687 with seven home runs in 20 games, including a two-homer performance on June 21st.

OH MY GOODNESS, JUAN SOTO 🤯 pic.twitter.com/CWy8WDy9Dz

— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2025

The Braves are sending out Spencer Schwellenbach, who will face the Mets for the second consecutive outing.

While Schwellenbach is an ace, he's been much worse on the road (3.79 xFIP) than at home (2.11 xFIP). The 25-year-old right-hander has also had a tougher time vs lefties (1.74 HR/9) than righties (0.40 HR/9).

Additionally, Soto has performed well in a small sample against Schwellenbach, homering once in three plate appearances the last time they faced off against each other.

We're getting favorable weather here, with humid temperatures and winds blowing out to left field. Let's take a shot on Soto to keep the hot streak going with a home run against Schwellenbach in this spot.

James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wood has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball this year, slashing .279/.376/.558 with 21 home runs in 343 plate appearances.

While Wood got off to a slow start in June, we've seen him start to pick it up lately, homering three times in his last four games.

James Wood leaves us speechless 😮

This majestic shot just went 451 feet 💥 pic.twitter.com/FTb9nIRVfm

— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2025

Up next is an exploitable matchup on the road against Padres' righty Stephen Kolek, who has struggled against lefties this season, featuring a .384 wOBA against them (.222 wOBA vs righties).

We've seen Wood punish right-handers this season, including a 171 wRC+ with 15 of his 21 home runs.

You have to love the value that we're getting here at (+425) odds on one of the emerging superstars in MLB. Back Wood to his 22nd homer of the season in this favorable spot.

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Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The next prop on this list is a Twins' slugger who performs well against righties in Larnach. We've seen the 28-year-old put up a 129 wRC+ against right-handers this season (30 wRC+ vs lefties). That's good news against Mariners' righty Bryan Woo.

Trevor Larnach has 13 Hard Hits over the past seven days (7 games), tied for 3rd most in MLB.#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/aoW947jtS2

— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) June 7, 2025

Woo has been much worse against lefties this season, allowing a .295 wOBA and 1.64 HR/9, compared to .228 wOBA and 0.60 HR/9 vs righties. On top of that, Larnach has performed well versus Woo in a small sample, going 2-for-3 in his career.

We're seeing Larnach get on track at the plate, as highlighted by a 108 wRC+ in June after a 115 wRC+ in May. This includes above-average performance in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant.

We should also note that Larnach has been much better at home, including a .198 ISO, compared to a .132 ISO on the road.

When you consider these factors, you have to like the value at (+500) odds on Larnach in this matchup. Let's ride with him to hit his 11th homer of the season.

Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Garcia has an underwhelming slash on the year at .232/.284/.402 with nine home runs in 285 plate appearances, but we're starting to see the veteran pick up the pace in June. The 32-year-old outfielder has a 144 wRC+ with two homers so far this month.

Adolis Garcia’s 5 day mental break appears to have worked wonders for the slugger 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RSe7osDIaL

— Rangers Nation ⚾️ (@rangers__nation) June 15, 2025

That's good news for tonight, where we're getting humid weather at Camden Yards, which has become much more hitter-friendly after they made park adjustments this offseason.

It also helps that Garcia is facing Orioles' lefty Trevor Rogers tonight. The former Marlin has had a tough time with Garcia throughout his career, where the Rangers' outfielder has gone 3-for-6 with a home run.

So here we have a veteran outfielder who is finding his groove, playing in a hitter-friendly park with favorable weather, taking on a pitcher that he's had success against in the past. Remember that Garcia has a track record, homering 25+ times in his last four seasons, including 39 in 2023. Don't get too discouraged by the mediocre season-long line here.

We're getting a nice price of (+550) odds at DraftKings, especially with Garcia trending positively in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances. With that in mind, let's roll with Garcia to hit his 10th homer of the season tonight.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market to win in.

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