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Welcome to my favorite article of the year - 2023 Bold Predictions. Every NFL season is chaotic, and during the offseason fantasy players think they know way more than they actually do. Embracing variance and expecting outlier outcomes is necessary to prepare for fantasy drafts. Being bold by pushing back against groupthink and taking chances where you think the market is wrong can be a huge advantage in fantasy football.
Last year in this article, I predicted big seasons for DeVonta Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Doug Pederson's Jaguars. Following my advice would have also prevented you from drafting Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, and Courtland Sutton. Two years ago, I wrote about an undervalued Cooper Kupp before his record-shattering Super Bowl season. I’ve had my share of misses over the years but I do believe that my close evaluation of college film gives me an edge when projecting players in the NFL. The purpose of this article is to nail some predictions and help you win your league.
A lot of sharp fantasy analysts have finally caught up to the way I’ve always drafted. My philosophy is based on almost ignoring floor, shooting for upside with every pick, and prioritizing youth. I also look to exploit median season-long projections, which are borderline useless considering the injuries and chaos of every NFL season. Most fantasy players also don’t realize how many draft picks really don’t matter that much. There are only a few true impact picks each year. Hopefully, this article will help you find them.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
1. 2023 is the Year of the Rookie, headlined by Bijan Robinson's 1934-yard, 18 TD masterpiece
Bijan Robinson is one of the best RB prospects of this decade, and the Falcons taking him No. 8 overall signals an organizational commitment to featuring him. In 2023, the RB position is as devalued as its ever been, and the Falcons still invested a premium pick in Robinson, even with a very capable runner already on the roster in Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons plan to run the ball a lot, and have the coaching, scheme, and personnel to be one of the top rushing teams in the NFL this year.
The arguments against Robinson are the presence of Allgeier and questions about the Falcons offense. If a former 4th-round pick dents Robinson's workload, the Falcons would be essentially admitting to a mistake with their top-8 pick. Bet on talent and let the chips fall. Robinson is a skilled pass-catcher and the Falcons offense could be better than expected in a weak division.
Fantasy analyst Pat Kerrane wrote about potential legendary RB seasons and painted a very intriguing picture for Robinson as a guy with league-winner in his range of outcomes. According to Kerrane, a legendary scenario could be Robinson taking 55% of RB carries and averaging 4.9 yards per carry en route to a monster year. I could easily see 60+% carry share and well over 5.0 yards per carry given Robinson's talent. And that's before we even get into his pass-catching prowess.
You can read my full prospect profile on Robinson here. He is my 1.02 in redraft formats this season.
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba surpasses both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as Seattle's WR1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was an excellent prospect who was taken 20th overall and flashed in a big way during training camp for the Seahawks. JSN was incredibly productive as a Sophomore at Ohio State, at times out-shining Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He's an unbelievable talent in terms of hands and quickness. You can read more about his game here.
While both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are good players, JSN offers a WR1 upside neither has. Metcalf has always been a bit overrated and Lockett has limitations due to his size. JSN will start off slow, especially considering his preseason wrist injury. He may even miss a week or two to start the year. He may not achieve a huge snap share until the second half of the season. Once he finds his groove in the second half, I expect him to go nuclear. Remember, Odell Beckham didn't play in the first month of his legendary rookie season.
3. Bryce Young throws for 4508 yards and accounts for 31 TDs
The first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is somehow being slept on. Anthony Richardson offers tantalizing upside and C.J. Stroud is a pinpoint passer. However, there's a reason Bryce Young was chosen before both.
Last year's rookie QB class was horrendous, and the fantasy football market is holding that against Bryce Young. Young is a guaranteed starter as long as he's healthy and has the ultimate draft capital – corroborated by both objective and subjective scouting metrics. So why exactly is he being drafted behind Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, and Brock Purdy as the QB25? One reason is recency bias. The market has been burned by rookie QBs in a big way over the past few years, from Trey Lance in 2021 to last year's disastrous group.
Another possible reason for Young's ridiculously low ADP is the narrative around his supporting cast. While the Panthers don't exactly have the best receiver group in the NFL, Young has a young and talented offensive line and a bright offensive mind as his head coach in Frank Reich.
One of my fantasy football philosophies is to prioritize talent over projectable volume. I think far too often fantasy players overrate circumstantial factors that have nothing to do with the individual player's talent. For all the great research out there about roster construction and predictive statistics, the bottom line is that drafting actual good players is what sets you up for success. Bryce Young is really good, and I wrote an article supporting that claim before the draft. Read it here and draft Young confidently – he'll make his teammates better.
4. Two Rookie Tight Ends finish in the top 12 in Fantasy PPG
Rookie tight ends have been notoriously rough fantasy picks over the years, but I think that changes this year for two reasons. First and foremost, this was always thought to be a terrific tight end class. Draft talent and let the chips fall. Kyle Pitts cracked 1000 yards but didn't get the TD luck as a rookie, and Evan Engram put up 64/722/6 in his rookie season, so it's not impossible.
Secondly, the rookie tight ends that I'm targeting this year aren't expensive in drafts and come with some favorable situations in terms of offensive environment and/or target competition.
Sam LaPorta has a clear path to being top-two on his team in targets, which is an extremely important factor in boom fantasy seasons for tight ends. He's been terrific all training camp and is expected to be the starter by all accounts. Lions tight ends scored eight TDs last year, and the team lacks WR target-earners beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Dalton Kincaid functions more as a big slot than an inline tight end, and with high draft capital and Josh Allen as his QB, he's a smash in the double-digit rounds. Kincaid could be the piece the Bills offense has been missing all along.
Michael Mayer had been a productive player since he stepped on campus at Notre Dame. His size and blocking ability will get him on the field early and often for the Raiders. With only the mediocre Austin Hooper in his way, I expect him to be the clear TE1 by Week 6 at the latest. The Raiders also don't have much at WR behind Davante Adams.
Luke Musgrave has been drawing rave reviews all camp and looks to be the clear-cut Week 1 starter for the Packers. Green Bay has second-year man Christian Watson in line to be the WR1, but there are question marks behind him. Musgrave is athletic and talented enough to produce early and often.
5. Both Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery finish as Top 12 RBs in Fantasy PPG
Jahmyr Gibbs was selected No. 12 overall in the NFL Draft, which came as a shock to many. Clearly, the Lions believed they were adding a multidimensional weapon – not just a running back. I wrote this article about Gibbs before the draft and called him "an explosive playmaker with the home run speed and receiving ability of an All-Pro RB" while comparing him to Jamaal Charles.
Some have questioned his landing spot, but I think Detroit is a great place for him to carve out a very fantasy-friendly role. While David Montgomery is a solid player in his own right, Gibbs has a lot going for him in terms of the situation. First, Detroit has an awesome offensive line, ranked top-five by PFF.
Second, Detroit threw to their RBs at the fifth-highest rate in the league last season following their trade of T.J. Hockenson. I fully expect that rate to go up with Gibbs as a focal point of the passing offense. The Lions also lack established pass-catching threats outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, so there should be plenty of targets to go to Gibbs. He will be by far their most explosive player while Jameson Williams serves his six-game suspension.
While Montgomery could be the primary goal-line back, Gibbs is a great bet to score some long TDs. His 4.36 40-yard dash corroborated the long speed he showed on film. Expect home runs.
I expect Montgomery to produce as well. The Lions will score a lot of touchdowns, and Montgomery is taking on a role that helped Jamaal Williams lead the league in rushing TDs last year. Monty isn't flashy but has enough talent to catch some passes, break tackles, and fall forward inside the five-yard line. Given their current roster construction (only two RBs on the initial 53-man roster), it is quite possible that Gibbs and Montgomery are the only two backs used in this explosive offense. Buy both.
6. Marvin Mims Jr. is the guy you need in Week 17, going 9/192/2 against the Chargers
Marvin Mims Jr. was an underrated prospect pre-draft, and after he achieved second-round draft capital as Sean Payton's hand-picked deep threat, I knew I'd be targeting him in fantasy. Since the draft, we've seen the Broncos WR room lose Tim Patrick for the season and Jerry Jeudy at least for the time being due to injuries. Mims is walking into a significant Week 1 role.
If Russell Wilson is going to bounce back with his new coaching staff, he'll likely need to re-capture one of his greatest strengths - his deep ball. Marvin Mims Jr. has 4.38 wheels and profiles as an explosive downfield threat. Expect big plays and spike weeks.
8. Tyjae Spears puts up three 18+ point spike weeks
Sharp fantasy players have been waiting for Derrick Henry's downfall for years. Henry is THE outlier and certified freak, but there will come a time when he falls off. Tyjae Spears is a talented rookie with a path to an early-season role, and enormous contingent value if Henry were to be injured or traded.
Spears was drafted 81st overall by the Titans, who had used their first two picks on offensive line and quarterback. Spears famously doesn't have an ACL and has a history of knee issues. The Titans are at a crossroads of re-building and competing, so the only way to read a Day 2 RB selection, especially one with such sketchy long-term health, is that they plan on using him early. I would be shocked if Spears isn't the clear-cut No. 2 RB behind Derrick Henry in Week 1.
Spears as a player is dynamic. He put up video game numbers at Tulane and capped off an awesome college career with a 205-yard, four-touchdown masterpiece against USC. He's also been lighting up the preseason. Draft good players and let the chips fall.
9. Brandin Cooks goes 79/1289/9
Brandin Cooks has had an odd career, playing for five teams since being drafted in 2014. Cooks has always been a solid player, but his production dipped in a bad situation with the Texans. The Cowboys needed a WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb and Cooks has the exact profile Dak Prescott needs in his WR2.
Cooks can win on all levels of the field and get behind the defense. I expect Dak Prescott to play better this year with improved receivers and without a plodding Ezekiel Elliot holding back the offense.
10. Odell Beckham Jr. turns back the clock and goes 73/1124/9 as Baltimore's WR1
The last time we saw Odell Beckham Jr. on an NFL field he was on his way to a huge Super Bowl performance. He left that game and spent the entire 2022 season rehabbing. Now he's back, and drafters want no part of a former elite fantasy producer.
Wide receiver age drop-offs are not similar at all to RB age drop-offs, but sometimes fantasy players ignore all "old" players and confuse the two. There have been many terrific fantasy performances by WRs in their 30s, and with OBJ at 30 years old coming off a full year of rest, he should be fresh and healthy for Week 1.
Some expect Todd Monken to propel the Ravens offense to a whole new level, specifically in terms of passing more. While it may be bumpy at first, I do think all three Ravens WRs are decent bets at cost. Beckham is the only one who has already proven to be a fantasy force when healthy.
11. Kirk Cousins finishes as QB8
In the first round of the NFL Draft, the Vikings opted to add an offensive weapon instead of addressing their weak defense, selecting USC's Jordan Addison to be their WR2. Minnesota is signaling that they simply want to outscore people, and that should lead to fantasy greatness.
Cousins is not a perfect player but his supporting cast puts him in a position to put up huge numbers. Playing more than half his games in a dome, Cousins has the best WR in football in Justin Jefferson, a dynamic rookie in Addison, and an excellent receiving tight end in T.J. Hockenson at his disposal. Not to mention the underrated Christian Darrisaw protecting his blindside. Without a great RB, expect a ton of passing in the red zone. Without a great defense, expect some shootouts.
12. The Rams tank for Caleb Williams, as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp don't play the final three weeks
The Rams paid the price for their Super Bowl win, and now their roster, specifically the defense, is looking rough. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have each had their fair share of injury issues over the years, and Kupp has already dealt with an injury this preseason. Stafford is an old man. He'll be entering his 13th season in the NFL. As a rookie starter, his backup was Daunte Culpepper. I'm not betting on 17 games of full health. There were also rumors of the Rams trying to trade him this offseason. The vibes in LA aren't great. NFL, that is, because at USC...
Kupp is still a terrific player, but the wisest long-term play would be to get him at full health for their next QB in what I expect to be a lost season. Bold predictions don't have to be all sunshine and rainbows.
13. George Pickens plays all 18 games and finishes with 62 catches, 789 yards, and 4 TDs
Everyone loves the Steelers now because of exciting preseason performances against second and third-stringers. George Pickens is a fantasy darling because of a couple of highlight catches. The reality is that both Kenny Pickett and George Pickens were subpar players last year and Matt Canada returns as offensive coordinator. I'm simply not buying the Steelers offense. I think while there's a chance at a complete faceplant by Kenny Pickett, the likeliest scenario is that the offense is inconsistent with bright moments coming from the RBs and TE.
George Pickens' 17.3% contested catch rate led rookie receivers with 50 or more catches in 2022 per @FTNData pic.twitter.com/IF6aHNggNt
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) August 31, 2023
Pickens wasn't my favorite prospect and failed to help fantasy teams last year as a rookie, despite logging the 24th most snaps of any WR in the league. He also was 11th worst among all players with 45 targets in terms of separation in NFL Next Gen Stats. He's not a great separator and functions as the second (maybe third depending on Pat Friermuth's development) option in a low-volume, possibly straight-up bad passing environment.
14. We get a Subway Super Bowl
That's right. The Jets thing actually happens, and Brian Daboll's squad adds to Giant lore with another Wild Card run to the big game. There are periods of fantasy goodness from all expected players, including a WR4 finish for Garrett Wilson and ping-ponging spike weeks from Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. Danny Dimes throws 24 touchdowns, nine to Darren Waller, and Saquon rolls as expected.
Aaron Rodgers delivers the Lombardi trophy to one of the most tortured fan bases in sports, capping off a stunning 31-28 victory over the Giants with an angle route TD to Breece Hall with 9 seconds left. No prediction is bolder than good things happening for Jets fans.
15. You will skim this article and read the titles, looking to confirm the biases you already have for your own players
1-for-1. Off to a great start! Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
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