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A preview of the 2021 Arizona Fall League from a Fantasy Baseball perspective. Who are some of the top prospects expected to play to target in seasonal, dynasty, and keeper leagues based on their fall performance?
On October 13th at 3:30 pm EST, the Arizona Fall League kicks off! I am going to preview the Arizona Fall League from a fantasy sports perspective.
Before digging into the players, let's get into the quick basics of what the Arizona Fall League (AFL) is. It's a six-team league that plays a 30-game schedule. Each Major League Baseball team selects seven players to send to this developmental league. There is an All-Star Game that they call the "Fall Stars Game" and they have a Championship at the end of the season. Both the Fall Stars Game and the Championship are viewable via MLB.TV and MLB Network.
As a fan, the Arizona Fall League is a way to keep tabs on some of the top prospects in the game that could potentially contribute to your fantasy rosters sometime in the future, as early as 2022. For others, it's a way to scout some prospects to acquire in your dynasty leagues or leagues that allow rostering of prospects.
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Team Overviews
Below is a list of the teams along with their minor league affiliation. If you know your favorite team's prospects well, this should help you figure out which team you might want to keep tabs on.
Glendale Desert Dogs: Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros, Saint Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox
Mesa Solar Sox: Oakland A's, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles
Peoria Javelinas: Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
Salt River Rafters: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers
Scottsdale Scorpions: San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
Surprise Saguaros: Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees
According to the MLB website, Peoria will have five players in MLB's Top 100 Prospects List, which is more than any other team in the Arizona Fall League this year.
Top Fantasy-Relevant Players
I am obviously not going to dive into all 210 players. Based on history, 60 percent of AFL players have made a Major League Roster. Those of us that are experienced fantasy gamers know that just because a player makes a roster doesn't make them fantasy relevant.
Below is a list of fantasy-relevant players, ranked in order by the MLB's Prospect Rankings.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers (AAA), 1B/3B, No. 4 Prospect: Salt River Rafters
Spencer Torkelson played 31 games at High-A, 50 games at Double-A, and 40 games at Triple-A. At Triple-A, he hit .238 with a .350 OBP, and a .881 OPS. He had 11 home runs in the 40 games, a 13 percent walk rate, and a 20.3 percent strikeout rate. He was drafted No.1 overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. Defensively he logged 642.1 innings at first base and 361.1 innings at third base. According to the MLB pipeline, we should see him playing for the Tigers sometime during the 2022 season.
Marco Luciano, San Francisco Giants (A+), SS, No. 5 Prospect: Scottsdale Scorpions
Marco Luciano is a player that I have had on my radar now for a couple of seasons. In 2019 at just the age of 17, in Rookie League, he hit 10 home runs in 38 games with a .322 average, .438 OBP, 1.054 OBP, and eight steals. He was promoted to Low-A at the end of the 2019 season, playing nine games at that level. In 2020, there was no minor league season, and in 2021 he played 70 games at Low-A and 36 games at High-A. In Low-A, his numbers were similar to Rookie League in 2019: 18 home runs, five steals, a .278 average, .373 OBP, and a .929 OPS.
When he was promoted to High-A, he struggled. One home run and one steal in 36 games. His strikeout rate went from 22.1% in Low-A to 37.2% in High-A while his walk rate went down from 12.3% to 6.7%.
If you look up his YouTube highlights, he will find yourself watching Luciano launch some massive home runs. He seems like he will be a fun player to watch for years to come and I am interested in seeing how he develops over the years. As of right now, he is expected to join the Major League Club sometime in 2023.
CJ Abrams, San Diego Padres (AA), 2B/SS, No. 6 Prospect: Peoria Javelinas
CJ Abrams was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. In 2019 in the Rookie League, he hit three home runs, stole 14 bases, hit .401 with a .442 OBP and a 1.104 OPS in 32 games as an 18-year-old. In 2021, he started the season at Double-A where he hit two home runs, stole 13 bases, hit .296 with a .363 OBP and .783 OPS. His season was cut short with a fractured left tibia and sprained MCL from a collision at 2nd base.
Coming out of the draft, he was expected to flash more power than he has; his five home runs in 76 games were lower than I expected, however, he has hit for 27 doubles in the 76 games which is encouraging. This fall, fans just want to see Abrams healthy, including myself. Fans are hoping to see Abrams with the Padres sometime during the 2022 season.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox (AAA), 1B, No. 18 Prospect: Scottsdale Scorpions
Triston Casas was the No. 26 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. Casas is big, power bat: 6'4" and 252 pounds. In 2021, he started the season at Double-A and finished the year at Triple-A. In Double-A, he hit 13 home runs, stole six bases, hit .284 with a .395 OBP and .879 OPS in 77 games. His walk rate was 14.9 percent and his strikeout rate was 19.1 percent. He had only 42 plate appearances in Triple-A, making it difficult to draw any conclusions about his play at that level. We can expect to see Casas at the Major League Club in 2022.
Nolan Gorman, Saint Louis Cardinals (AAA), 2B/3B, No. 24 Prospect: Glendale Desert Dogs
Nolan Gorman was drafted No. 19 overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Although drafted as a third baseman, second base might be the pathway to Gorman getting an opportunity for the Cardinals to play sooner rather than later. Nolan Arenado is likely to stay long-term and Paul Goldschmidt is not ready to retire from the game yet. Gorman played 77 games at second base compared to 32 games at third base in 2021.
At the Double-A level, Gorman hit .288 with a .354 OBP and .862 OPS. He hit 11 home runs and stole four bases at this level over 43 games. In Triple-A, in 76 games he with .274 with a .320 OBP, a .785 OPS, 14 home runs, and three steals. What was also encouraging was in Triple-A his strikeout rate was 19.2 percent compared to 26.7 percent at the Double-A level. He is expected to join the Cardinals sometime during the 2022 season.
Gabriel Moreno, Toronto Blue Jays (AAA), C, No. 32 Prospect: Mesa Solar Sox
Catching prospects are either a big deal or not depending on your fantasy format. In one-catcher and shallow leagues, probably not as important. In two-catcher and deeper leagues, it might be. Gabriel Moreno played a majority of his games in 2021 at the Double-A level. In 32 games he hit .373 with eight home runs, an OBP of .441, an OPS of 1.092, and a strikeout rate of 15.2%. He finished the season playing three games at the Triple-A level. He is expected to join the Major League club in 2022.
MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres (AA), LHP, No. 56 Prospect: Peoria Javelinas
MacKenzie Gore is a name that keeps popping up over and over ever since he was taken No. 3 overall in the 2017 MLB Draft. He throws four pitches: Fastball, Curveball, Slider, and Changeup. Gore has had a lot of hype and he was someone most expected to see at the Major League level at some point during 2021. Gore started the season at Triple-A, starting six games with an ERA of 5.85 in just 20 innings pitched. He also had a K-BB% of 6.3%.
Gore was then sent to the alternate training site. He then made three starts at the Arizona Complex League, followed by promotions to High-A and Double-A to end the season. At Double-A he had a K-BB% of 19.5%. With just 50.1 innings pitched in live games, it is hard to draw any conclusions from his numbers outside of the fact that he has struggled and is not where most expected him to be at this point, which is probably why he is in the AFL this fall.
In 2020, he was the highest-ranked pitcher on the prospect lists. It is clear he has the potential and hopefully we see him in the big leagues come 2022.
Nick Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates (A+), 2B, No. 62 Prospect: Peoria Javelinas
Nick Gonzales was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. He played 80 games at High-A and hit .302 with a .385 OBP, .950 OPS, 18 home runs, and seven stolen bases. He had a strikeout rate of 27.4%, which is something one would like to see go down prior to moving up to the major leagues. He has an elite bat with upside. In two games at the end of August, he hit five home runs and drove in 15 runs in just two games. Experts are mixed on when Gonzales could debut at the Major League level. Some think it will be sometime in 2022 while others believe it won't be until 2023.
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers (AA), RHP, No. 78 Prospect: Glendale Desert Dogs
Bobby Miller was the No. 29 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. He throws a fastball, slider, and changeup. He pitched 14 games (started 11 of them) at the High-A level. Over 47 innings, he had a 1.91 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a K-BB% of 23.9%. In Double-A, he pitched just 9.1 innings in three starts. He allowed five runs for a 4.82 ERA and had a K-BB% of 28.6%. With such a low number of innings pitched, the Double-A. He is expected to join the Dodgers at some point during the 2022 season.
Final Thoughts
Overall, there are several talented players at Arizona Fall League. 16 of the Top 100 prospects will be playing there and the nine I highlighted above are the ones I am the most interested in hearing about from a fantasy perspective. I am sure there will be some performances and guys that flash over the next month, but these guys are some of the more hyped prospects.
I am not a prospects expert but I am familiar with these nine players because of their pedigree. It will be fun to see how they perform and what that does to their narrative prior to heading into the 2022 season.
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