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We're officially one month into the season so more statistics will begin to become "sticky." One of the chief contact quality metrics that can be predictive of power is hard-hit rate. As always, we'll skip the obvious names like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in order to look at unexpected leaders, as well as players who have disappointed thus far.
When you're done here, check out this week's pitcher Statcast analysis on SIERA.
All Statcast metrics are current as of May 3, 2021 and taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.
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Hard-Hit Rate Studs
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
63% Hard-Hit Rate
We have to start out with the hot prospect du jour who is tearing the cover off the ball. After going hitless in his first 15 at-bats upon being called up, Kirilloff now has a six-game hitting streak going. That includes a multi-homer game against the Royals and four homers in his last three games.
Lift off for Kirilloff ?
The @Twins No. 2 prospect stays hot with his 4th homer in his last 3 games. pic.twitter.com/EksMEgIlF6
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 2, 2021
No surprise he's quickly among the leaders in barrels and hard-hit rate. Among hitters with at least 25 batted ball events (BBE), he is fourth in Hard% behind Giancarlo Stanton (of course) and an unexpected pair of Giants in Darin Ruf and Evan Longoria.
Kirilloff entered the season as MLB's 26th overall prospect and living up to the power potential he displayed throughout the minors. If he continues to slot fifth in the Twins' potent lineup and play at first base, he can be the savior for those who were counting on Cody Bellinger or Luke Voit to be their regular 1B.
Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee Brewers
55.6% Hard-Hit Rate
Those who follow this column each week may recall something about avoiding all Brewers offensive players outside of Travis Shaw in last week's contact rate analysis. That still holds true although Garcia is starting to become interesting in deep leagues. He is starting to heat up at the dish coming off a pair of multi-hit games against the Dodgers and has three steals along with three homers. He's never been one to offer a whole lot to fantasy managers other than the hope for a high batting average, but his current .222 AVG squashes that appeal. Look deeper and you'll see a .291 xBA along with his exceptional hard-hit rate.
Garcia is also in the top 10% of the league in exit velocity at 92.9 MPH and his .524 xSLG is the best of his career. He's already barreled more balls than he did all of last season in twice as many at-bats. Garcia has the power and speed tools to be highly productive but his propensity to hit the ball on the ground too often is his Kryptonite. He won't go on a power binge based any time soon but he could be a modest five-category contributor in NL-only formats.
Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks
53.9% Hard-Hit Rate
Numerous injuries in Arizona have allowed Smith to become a fixture in the lineup and he's answering the bell. Smith is tattooing the ball and is currently tied with Freddie Freeman for the seventh-most hard-hit balls over 95 MPH with 41. He's not just feasting off righties either, as his early splits indicate.
Smith's early success has pushed him to the leadoff spot over the past two weeks, where he has scored nine runs in the past 11 games at that position. There isn't a huge power ceiling with Smith like some other first-base prospects (see Kirilloff, Alex above) but he brings a stable floor for average and runs.
Hard-Hit Rate Duds
Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies
23.2% Hard-Hit Rate
His 17 RBI have been satisfying but that's all the good news there is for Gregorius this season. Even his traditionally low strikeout rate has jumped to a career-high 18.7% on the season.
Now, Gregorius has never been a big exit velocity guy. He has posted an average EV in the bottom 10% in five of the past seven seasons. This would be the fourth time he's posted a HardHit% near the bottom of the league. Maybe we shouldn't take too much away from this. But his expected slash line is at a career-low across the board and he's popping the ball up at a 20.3% clip that far exceeds the league average of 7.1%.
Gregorius was just recalled from the COVID/IL list so it remains to be seen whether he'll have any ill after-effects. It's not as if Philly has been ripping it up offensively so it may be best to keep Gregorius benched until further notice.
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays
27.3% Hard-Hit Rate
There are many reasons to worry about Biggio; his low Hard-Hit rate is just one of many disappointing metrics so far. He has an expected slash line of .156/.233/.238 and a 34.1% K%. We recently profiled him as a huge contact rate faller on the WPC+ podcast. The main difference from 2020 has been his lack of success on offspeed stuff, especially as far as HardHit% is concerned. He has a .166 xBA and 50% Whiff% on offspeed pitches in 2021.
Biggio also has an increasing ground-ball problem, namely that his ground balls are increasing. He's young and talented enough to make adjustments, so it's too early to hit the panic button. We might want to consider that the low batting average that would complement his 20/20 potential might turn into an outright BA sink.
Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals
31.4% Hard-Hit Rate
The Cards' top hitting prospect got off to a blazing start with three big flies and nine RBI in the first week of the season. It's been nothing but crickets out of his lumber ever since. Carlson is mired in a 5-for-30 slump over the past week and hasn't gone yard since April 7.
Carlson is hitting the ball in the air but he's averaging an 90.8 exit velo on LD/FB, which is bottom-30 for all hitters with 50 or more BBE. He is maintaining a decent average (.265) but needs to up his contact rate and begin barreling the ball again. Most importantly, Carlson needs to prove he can handle big-league breaking balls or he might start getting a fatter diet of them from opponents. Carlson will need to adjust quickly lest he drop from the top of the batting order. He will get the benefit of the doubt to figure it out in the majors due to a lack of outfield depth in the organization but won't help fantasy teams if he doesn't begin to improve his quality of contact.
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