Stop that Hype Train! Diontae Johnson

August 23, 2020

Hayden Epinette evaluates Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson as a 2020 fantasy football draft bust and overvalued WR based on ADP.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a tumultuous season in 2019. With longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger going down with an elbow injury in September, the team looked to two unproven options at QB to fill in. Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges each had their moments, but the Steelers will be very happy to have Big Ben back in the lineup. After finishing last year 30th and 31st in total and passing offense, respectively, the Steelers anticipate a big rebound in 2020. Roethlisberger is just a year removed from a 5,000-yard campaign, so an explosive offense may be in the cards.

Of course, any effective passing game requires effective receiving options. One key member of the team’s receiving corps is second-year wideout Diontae Johnson. Johnson was quietly productive in 2019, finishing with 59 receptions and five touchdowns despite less-than-stellar quarterback play. This success as a rookie has led many experts to anticipate a breakout campaign in 2020. However, might such expectations be unrealistic?

Let’s take a look at why the hype train for Johnson may be going off the rails.

Breakout or Letdown?

The first obstacle to Diontae Johnson’s stardom is the presence of teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster. While JuJu’s 2019 season was marred by injuries and inaccurate passing, he has been downright dominant in the past. In 2018, Smith-Schuster had 111 receptions for over 1,400 yards, which is top-tier production. He also ranked first in YAC and second in red-zone receptions that year. Regardless of Johnson’s maturation as an NFL player, JuJu will garner a large share of the team’s targets.

Of course, Roethlisberger threw for more than 5,100 yards in 2018 and one receiver cannot possibly hog all of that production. However, there is more than just one other mouth to feed in Pittsburgh this season. The Steelers drafted Chase Claypool out of Notre Dame in the second round of the draft this year. Claypool is an athletic specimen, running a 4.42 40-yard dash at six-foot-four. Young wideout James Washington also remains in town. Given that his closest player comparison is DeAndre Hopkins and that his YPC last season was an impressive 16.7, Washington will also receive plenty of looks.

Concerns exist about Johnson as an individual player as well. His 4.53 40-yard dash time failed to live up to the Toledo Rocket brand, especially considering he is just five-foot-ten and 183 pounds. Claypool, for instance, possesses a far more impressive size-speed combination. Additionally, Johnson’s catch radius ranks at just the sixth percentile for receivers. Many valuable red-zone targets will thus likely continue to go to Smith-Schuster. This assumption is further supported by Johnson’s mere one contested-catch last season in six opportunities.

Finally, the belief that Roethlisberger will return to his pre-injury self is overly optimistic. Big Ben’s elbow injury was very severe; it required surgery to repair the tendon in his throwing arm. Roethlisberger is also 38 years old, so his ability to fully heal might be overstated. Even if he can throw like before, he is still a very high injury risk. Big Ben has only played a full season four times in his 16-year career, so the possibility of another Mason Rudolph sighting is very real. This would severely damage Johnson’s ability to produce. Rudolph’s true passer rating was just 77.8 last year, good for 30th in the NFL. Not only did the Steelers pass less often last year with Roethlisberger out, but they were also much less efficient when they did.

Appealing Alternatives

The aforementioned Claypool may be a much better value than Johnson when it comes to Pittsburgh wideouts. Compared to Johnson’s ADP of 79, Claypool’s is all the way down at 294. This comes despite the Steelers spending more draft capital on the Notre Dame product and the fact that his athleticism is jaw-dropping. Taking a late-round flier on Claypool could allow you to get ahead of his waiver-wire demand.

Other receivers going in the same area as Johnson are Will Fuller (ADP 78) and Julian Edelman (ADP 84). Fuller may be Houston’s top receiver this year with DeAndre Hopkins’s departure, so if he can stay healthy, he will be a great value at this spot. Edelman loses Tom Brady as his quarterback in New England but has been one of the most consistent producers at his position for a long time. Both Fuller and Edelman have a better chance of providing returns at their draft spot than Johnson does.

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