Biggest Risers and Fallers of 2019 - Relief Pitchers

Our 2019 fantasy baseball review of relief pitcher risers and fallers. JB Branson looks at potential RP sleepers and closers to target for value in drafts as well as those to avoid or fade.

Welcome back, RotoBallers. I have to admit, I just wrote 3000 words on relief pitchers so forgive me if I get a little brief with the intro and just allow you to jump into the meat.

In this article, I look at 10 relievers whose value skyrocketed or plummeted in the 2019 fantasy season, spend some time trying to dig around to find out why it happened, and then discuss what we can expect from them in 2020.

For a look at starting pitchers who were risers last season in terms of K-rate, click here.

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Relief Pitcher Risers

Liam Hendriks, OAK ⇑ 

2019: 4 W, 25 SV, 124 K, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Okay, I did not see this one coming. Liam Hendriks has been hanging around the American League since being drafted by the Twins in 2007. Another starter-turned-reliever, he has had some success in the bullpen prior to 2019, such as his 2015 campaign in Toronto where he pitched to a 2.92 ERA across 64.2 IP. But in 2019 we saw a different beast. Enjoying a 1.5 MPH uptick in his fastball velocity, Hendriks rode the pitch hard, throwing the cheese at a 67.9% clip and essentially doing away with his sinker. It resulted in a career-high 37.4 K%, but also a career-high 49.5 FB%. This is where my main concerns start to surface. A 30-year-old pitcher who threw his most innings since 2014, is now throwing 70% cheese and giving up 50% flyballs, yet only surrendered a 5.6 HR/FB% (vs 10.4% career average) last season. The law of averages already started to creep into effect during the second half of last season when he allowed four long-balls and a 2.70 ERA after just one across the first half.

Despite how it may look, Hendrik's stuff actually supported the absurd low HR numbers to an extent. First off, he allowed the seventh-lowest Pull% in baseball. He was especially hard to pull for RHB, where he allowed just a 2.2 HR/FB% despite a 54.1 FB%. Of course, the uptick in velocity contributed greatly, but it was also the near picture-perfect location of his pitches that was the real key. An upper-90s fastball up and away consistently is tough to time-up as a hitter.

Then once he has you sitting on the up and away fastball and you think you're going to jump it, he hits you with a slider that starts at the same height but drops completely out of the strike zone.

That is just unfair. This slider absolutely mowed down batters last season. When throwing his slider Hendriks allowed a .108 BAA while boasting a 56.4 K%, 47.2 O-Swing%, 29.0 SwStr%, and a very much needed 51.6 GB%. The slider is key to sustaining elite fantasy value in 2020. There will without a doubt be more HR this year, there just has to be, but if he keeps throwing the slider to this level of effectiveness the strikeouts will remain and help overcome the ERA regression.

Hendriks is currently being drafted as the RP5 just, outside the top 100. While I don't expect him to end the season in the top five, he absolutely belongs in the top 10 and I won't argue too hard with anyone drafting him after Josh Hader, Kirby Yates and Aroldis Chapman have left the board. For what it's worth, Steamer projects Hendriks with a 3.16 ERA in 2020, which is in the neighborhood of his 3.21 xFIP from this past season, while rocking a 11.82 K/9 which is practically the median between his career average and 2019's 13.13 mark.

Taylor Rogers, MIN ⇑

2019: 2 W, 30 SV, 90 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Taylor Rogers was a solid relief pitcher for three seasons in Minnesota heading into 2019, but was finally awarded the ninth-inning keys and responded with the best year of his career. Operating as the Twins Glen Perkins-esque southpaw closer, Rogers rewarded fantasy owners finishing as one of only four RP with 30 SV, 11+ K/9, and an ERA under 3.00. Fun fact, the other three were also LHP - Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, and Will Smith.

Despite seeing regression in BABIP and HR/FB% from his "breakout" 2018 season, Rogers was still able to lower his ERA due to a career-best 32.4 K%. The secret appears to be a massive increase in his slider usage, 13% in 2018 to 31% in 2019. I see no reason to expect anything different from Rogers in 2020, sitting atop a strong bullpen featuring Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo, and Tyler Clippard. Rogers is currently being drafted as the RP8 at 126 overall. He represents a safer option than fellow closer Liam Hendricks, who is being drafted a full round earlier. In fact, I predict Taylor Rogers finishes the 2020 season ranked higher than Liam Hendriks.

Drew Pomeranz, SD ⇑ 

2019: 2 W, 2 SV, 137 K, 4.85 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Okay, this may seem a bit odd considering the overall stats look hideous and this guy has Kirby Yates ahead of him on the depth chart, but bear with me because I am excited about this one. Did you even realize Drew Pomeranz was moved to the bullpen last year? Finishing the season as a reliever, Pomeranz threw 28.2 IP with a 1.88 ERA, 15.70 K/9, and a 51.1 GB%. The guy became a southpaw Kirby Yates. He held opposing hitters to a .165 BA and boasted a 1.67 xFIP. The K/9 was good for third-highest among RP with 20+ IP, and only Brandon Workman also had a top-30 K/9, GB% above 50%, and an ERA below 2.00.

Yes, it is a small sample size, but Pomeranz would not be the first SP to flourish after a move to the pen. You may also be worried about the LOB% sitting above 90%, but I mean if you are striking guys out at Josh Hader levels, you are going to have Josh Hader level LOB ability (which was 93%). Speaking of Hader, he was the only RP to have a higher K/BB% than Pomeranz as a reliever.

Even if you are in the business of only using closers in fantasy, Pomeranz makes for a great late-round handcuff to Kirby Yates. But if you are of superior intellect and operate off the JB Bullpen Method (Draft Tip #10), you will join me in scooping up Drew Pomeranz in the late rounds and enjoy the ratio dominance. I haven't even started my 10 Bold Predictions for 2020 yet, but I assure you Pomeranz makes the list.

Emilio Pagan, TB ⇑ 

2019: 4 W, 20 SV, 96 K, 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP

Much like Taylor Rogers, Emilio Pagan enjoyed a career-year in 2019 which resulted in earning the closer role. His 12.34 K/9 was a personal best, as was his GB%. Also in tune with Taylor Rogers, Pagan increased his slider usage which resulted in a 7% increase in O-Swing%, 5% decrease in Contact%, and raised his SwStr% to a very impressive 17.6%. His fastball was equally impressive as it gained a slight uptick in velo which led the way with a 42.1 K%.

The bad news for Pagan is some incoming regression after he benefited from a .228 BABIP and monstrous 94.8 LOB%, which widened the gap between his ERA and 3.30 FIP. But even despite some regression in the ERA and WHIP, I expect Pagan to be a more-than-serviceable RP in 2020, especially backed by a top 10 K-BB%.

The real issue I have with drafting him at his current RP16 (168 Overall) range is the massive group of talent nipping at his heels on the depth chart. Diego Castillo was always viewed as the closer of the future in Tampa, but then they go and acquire strikeout machine Nick Anderson too? Not to mention a healthy Jose Alverado and frisbee-slider-slinging Chaz Roe. Even Colin Poche is another under 30 years old with double-digit K/9. I expect Emilio Pagan to lead the Rays in saves, but I will predict he will not reach 20 again in 2020 which makes him a less appealing pick to me than say Jose Leclerc or Hansel Robles who are being drafted a round later.

Brandon Workman, BOS ⇑ 

2019: 10 W, 16 SV, 104 K, 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

It's hard to believe Brandon Workman has been with the Red Sox since 2011. He made his first big league appearance in 2013 but really got his feet wet in 2014 with 87 IP and a wild 1-10 record. He then saw 2015-2016 practically erased due to Tommy John surgery. Fast forward to 2019, and he completes a literal 180 flip by going 10-1 with a 13.06 K/9 and 1.88 ERA, while also taking over Boston ninth-inning duties and recording 16 saves.

One main factor for his success was increasing the usage of his fantastic curveball, up to damn-near 50%, good for third-highest in baseball but still behind teammate Matt Barnes. Due to the increase in offspeed pitches, his FB value climbed and contributed to a career-low Contact% and career-high SwStr%. To top it all off, Workman's .123 BAA was the lowest in all of baseball.

Of course, we are talking about my Red Sox bullpen, so there has to be a downside. The glaring issue is the free passes. Operating with a 15.7 BB% is risky business, but it also comes with the territory when throwing a curveball half the time (unless you are Rich Hill or Tyler Duffey apparently). Workman's career BB% is 10.5%, so I expect the 15.7 to dip a bit towards the mean. The second issue is the minuscule .209 BABIP and 2.6 HR/FB%. Obviously this combo screams regression. But combined with a low LOB% and high GB tendencies, I don't really disagree with his 3.33 xFIP from 2019 as a 2020 ERA estimator. You can certainly do a lot worse than a high strikeout closer in Boston with a 3.33 ERA. Workman is currently being drafted right after Emilio Pagan, which I think is fair as I trust Pagan's peripherals a bit more, but I certainly expect Workman to be in line for more saves in 2020 - if that's your thing.

Giovanny Gallegos, STL ⇑ 

2019: 3 W, 1 SV, 93 K, 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP

Coming over from the New York Yankees in exchange for Luke Voit in 2018, Giovanny Gallegos saw his first full season in the bigs last year, and did not disappoint. Like Rogers and Pagan, Gallegos threw a career-high percentage of sliders en route to a 33.3 K% and 16.3 SwStr%. He also boasts impressive command as shown by his 27.6 K-BB%. In order for him to sustain this level of success, I believe a third pitch will need to be added to the mix, as he only threw eight pitches (change-up) last year that were not a fastball or slider. Until that happens, I expect the BABIP and LOB% to regress and for the ERA and WHIP to creep up in 2020.

The best thing Gallegos has going for him to start 2020 is opportunity. With Jordan Hicks recovering from TJS and Carlos Martinez supposedly returning to the rotation, Gallegos should be the guy to see the first crack at the ninth-inning role. He is the most talented option in the pen in my opinion, and you never know how/when Jordan Hicks recovers so I am treating Gallegos like the Cardinals closer in my drafts. He is currently being drafted as the RP26 (244 Overall). I value him higher and would easily draft him ahead of Mark Melancon, Joe Jimenez, and Ian Kennedy based on his floor, and also over Sean Doolittle and Archie Bradley based on his potential.

Relief Pitcher Fallers

Chad Green, NYY ⇓

2019: 4 W, 2 SV, 98 K, 4.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

The numbers might not look too bad, but after dominating performances in 2017 and 2018, this past season was a big disappointment for Chad Green ratio-hopefuls such as myself.  The law of averages spares no man. There are plenty of pleasantries to take away from 2019 however. The first is the strikeouts remained constant. His 12.78 K/9 fell smack dab in the middle of his 2017 and 2018 totals. His O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr% were also all on par. The second positive is Green has remained healthy for three straight seasons and his velocity remains intact. The third positive was a very strong second half of the season which bodes well for his 2020 outlook. Green started the season just about as bad as one could, allowing 14 ER in his first 7.2 IP. But the Yankees got creative, even used him as an opener, and he responded in a great way. After the All-Star break, Green allowed just a 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .176 BAA, 0.72 HR/9, and the BABIP dropped drastically.

Despite the rough start and bad luck in 2019, I will be going right back to drafting Chad Green late in my 2020 fantasy drafts to bolster my pitching stats, while enjoying an even greater discount than usual.

Edwin Diaz, NYM ⇓ 

2019: 2 W, 26 SV, 99 K, 5.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Talk about a painful draft-day investment, Edwin Diaz was destroyed by the Law of Averages monster in his first year in New York. Despite a career-high in K/9, fantasy owners watched in horror as his HR/9 rose from 0.61 to 2.33, and his  BABIP climb from .281 to .377. He used the same pitch mix with the same velo, but obviously experienced much different results from his first three seasons. We can't blame it all on bad luck though, even though his 3.07 xFIP suggests there was plenty of it, because a 48.8 Hard% is not something you just fall into by accident.

Diaz was pummeled by RHB in 2019. In 33 IP, he surrendered 10 HR and a .299/.358/.569 slash. Again, that's not all bad luck. The below heat maps show us his pitch locations against RHB first in 2018, followed by 2019. Which one would be easier for you to hit? 

The difference between the two may seem minor, but when you are simultaneously being hammered by the HR/FB and BABIP gods, keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate as much as possible is probably the best approach.

The greatest benefit for fantasy owners in 2020 from the Diaz fallout in 2019 is the draft day discount. Despite almost a guaranteed 15+ K/9, the closer role, and incoming positive regression (great article by fellow-Rotoballer Eric), Diaz is being drafted as the RP9 at 130 overall. If the ERA and WHIP are able to dip back down anywhere near the ranges from the previous three seasons, you are getting a sweet deal.

Blake Treinen, LAD ⇓ 

2019: 6 W, 16 SV, 59 K, 4.91 ERA, 1.62 WHIP

As if the Edwin Diaz drop-off wasn't painful enough, Blake Treinen was the nail in the coffin. After being converted to a full-time reliever by the Nationals in 2015, Treinen skated through three straight seasons of 3.31-3.57 xFIP and 8 K/9. Then out of nowhere, just like the A's current closer, Treinen busts out of his mold and becomes a freakin wizard on the mound ending 2018 with a 0.78 ERA and 11.20 K/9. The pending regression heading into 2019 was so obvious coming off career anomalies in BABIP, HR/9, and LOB% but I, like so many others, was baited in based solely on how filthy he stuff looked. Of course, you know the rest of the story; the Law of Averages hit, and it hit hard. Treinen's K/9 dropped down to 9.05, his BABIP shot up 86 points, LOB% dropped 10 points, and his HR/FB% quadrupled. Also like his former teammate Hendriks, Treinen's GB/FB ratio was cut in half. For someone that relies on a "once" filthy sinker, that stat definitely sticks out. So obviously I want to dig into the sinker.

In 2019, Treinen's sinker induced 10% less ground balls than 2018, with a 77 point BABIP increase and tripled in HR/FB%. According to his pitch location heat maps, there is a noticeable difference in his sinker locations from 2018 (top), but it actually looks like it was better placed in 2019 (bottom).

If the location is not the issue, it has to be the delivery, right? Well, it just so happens his sinker lost 1.3 MPH in velocity from 2018. There we go. It also just so happens Treinen battled shoulder and back injuries last year, which could certainly help explain the loss in velo. The injuries could possibly also explain why he threw his slider (career 50.3 GB%) 10% less than in 2018.

So I am fairly confident injuries played a large role in Treinen's awful 2019 season, fueled by a rapid increase in fly balls. If fully healthy in Los Angeles this season, I expect the GB% to increase in conjunction with the return of his sinker and slider. The main problem here is I think a return to 2018 is out of the question, there is just nothing to support that statistical output. The HR/FB from 2019 actually lines up with his three-year average prior to the 2018 breakout, so I can't expect a drop in that department, but rather just a drop in the total number of fly balls which will drive the HR/9 down again and help bring his ERA and WHIP down to respectable levels. The days of fantasy relevance are probably over for Treinen, but the Dodgers will still get serviceable innings from their new reliever in 2020.

If you didn't notice, I left the increase in walks out of this blurb. That is because this article by Connor Kurcon on sixmanrotation.com covers it beautifully as does a study on how pitchers who suffer a spike in walk rates in their career respond the following season(s) historically. 

Jose Leclerc, TEX ⇓ 

2019: 2 W, 14 SV, 100 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Just like the previously mentioned Blake Treinen, Jose Leclerc enjoyed a massive breakout in 2018 with a 1.56 ERA and 13.27 K/9. But as you know, thanks to that big downward-facing arrow next to his name and the fact you probably had him on a fantasy team last season, Leclerc was unable to carry that success over to 2019.

Let's start with the good news. First, the strikeouts remained over a 13 K/9 rate, and his Contact% stayed steady. Second, his velocity increased from 2018. Third, he was still very tough to hit as he allowed just a .205 BAA. Lastly, the batted-ball profile remained relatively the same, but the GB% actually increased. So far so good. So what went wrong? Well, those ridiculously low HR numbers from 2018 regressed towards the mean as expected, but that was mostly thanks to a near-ten point decrease in Soft% and subsequent increase in Hard%. Left-handed batters, in particular, posed a problem for Leclerc and they slugged .483 in 2019 vs just .221 in 2018. The best way to explain his struggles with hard contact to lefties is by looking at his go-to pitch, the splitter.

In 2018, Leclerc's splitter boasted a 58.9 K%, .011 ISO, 37 FB%, 61.5 ZCont%, and a 23.8 SwStr%. In 2019, the same pitch carried a 45.9 K%, .168 ISO, 47 FB%, 83.7 ZCont%, and 16.4 SwStr%. That is quite a considerable drop in effectiveness. Back to the heat maps! First look at 2018 splitter location vs LHB, down in the zone, ain't no way to put that over the fence. Then look below it for 2019 splitter location vs LHB. That's living dangerously.

The relievers with the best splitters in baseball right now are Kirby Yates and Hector Neris. Yates strikes out LHB at a 15.19 K/9 rate, and Neris allows just a .167 to LHB. Obviously righting the ship with his splitter will be a major key to Leclerc returning to his dominant 2018 form. Walks will continue to be an issue (5.63 BB/9 Career), so he will never be a true ratio darling in fantasy. But the Ks are fantastic and we can expect the ERA to slide down towards his 3.59 FIP, and potentially even further if the splitter effectiveness improves. I can't see anyone else from the shoddy Rangers bullpen taking over as the teams closer barring a historic meltdown, so consider Leclerc a high strikeout closer that won't hurt your teams ERA. As I stated previously, I would be comfortable gambling on a bounce-back campaign and taking Leclerc over Emilio Pagan and Brandon Workman in 2020 fantasy drafts.

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