Detroit Lions: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

What can we expect from the Lions in 2014?

Despite their somewhat disappointing record at 7-9 last season, the Detroit Lions remained one of the more relevant teams in the NFL in terms of fantasy. While it certainly helps when you have the most talented receiver in football in Calvin Johnson, there are other key contributors as well. Heading into the 2014 campaign, the Lions will turn to a brand new coaching staff complete with some key personnel changes that should result in another relevant fantasy season in Detroit.

Offseason Acquisitions – WR Golden Tate

No Longer on the Roster – WR Nate Burleson

Coaching Changes – Entirely new regime including Head Coach Jim Caldwell, Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi, and Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin.

Detroit Lions Quarterback

Aside from Calvin Johnson, the one true mainstay for Detroit has been Quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford has solidified himself in the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks along with the likes of Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In fact, Stafford actually threw more passes than both of those guys and by a wide margin. Stafford threw a whopping 634 attempts, 64 ahead of Luck at 570, and 161 more times than Cam at 473. Now, it’s important to point out that Stafford will indeed have a new coaching staff but that doesn’t necessarily translate to fewer passing opportunities. Stafford is a gun-slinging quarterback who just so happens to have the best wide receiver in the game. The team is going to throw a lot regardless who is coaching. If anything, the coaches the Lions hired should serve as a vote of confidence for Stafford. Say what you want about the Colts under Jim Caldwell after Peyton Manning’s neck surgery but when Manning was healthy Caldwell knew what he had. He knew that the offense was better off playing to the team’s strengths, that being Peyton Manning. That’s not to say Stafford is equally as good as Peyton, it just means Caldwell will be wise enough to allow Stafford to sling the ball as much as he can, especially when someone like Calvin Johnson is his number one target. In addition to Caldwell, Detroit hired longtime Saints offensive assistant Joe Lombardi. The Saints have possessed one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL, so this move should translate into another big season for Stafford and friends. Firmly ranked in the 4-6 range among quarterbacks, Stafford is one of the last few passers you should think about grabbing before you commit to the strategy of waiting on quarterback.

Detroit Lions Wide Receivers

What needs to be said about Calvin Johnson that you don’t already know? He’s the best receiver in football and has been for quite some time. His nickname is Megatron. That basically says it all. What you might want to consider, however, is the fact that Calvin Johnson is now one of the safest first round picks you can make. Slam dunk running backs are scarce and the drop-off after the top backs is much more significant than at wide receiver, but Calvin isn’t going to burn you. You know exactly what you’re getting when you take Calvin. You’re getting a guy who has finished first in receiving yards two out of the last three years with the one outlier being last year where he finished third. Boohoo, only third. His twelve touchdowns are nothing to sneeze at either. He’s a stud, plain and simple. Find a threshold where you think the running backs are no longer safe in the first round and take Calvin Johnson instead of forcing yourself to grab a questionable back. As far as the other receivers in Detroit are concerned, it seems like every year fantasy owners are waiting to see who will be the true number two option for the Lions. This year, the name in question is free agent signee Golden Tate. The difference between Tate and the other receivers who have had that opportunity is that Tate made himself relevant in Seattle, a team that is overwhelmingly run-heavy. Tate could easily make the Detroit offense even more deadly, giving Stafford a second weapon to throw to and forcing teams to cover two different guys instead of triple-covering Calvin Johnson. Granted, no one is advocating you make Golden Tate your WR2 in fantasy if you can help it as most rankers have him outside the top 20. That being said, it’s possible Tate ends up there anyway. With veteran Nate Burleson off to Cleveland, Golden Tate is an excellent mid to late round receiver to target but I would hesitate to call him a true sleeper, as he should be on everyone’s radar.

Detroit Lions Running Backs

The Detroit Lions actually managed to produce two usable running backs for fantasy last season in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The only problem with that for the upcoming season is that between the addition of Golden Tate and a player we’ll get to in a bit, there may not be enough to go around to support two relevant running backs again. Reports out of the Lions camp indicate their new offense resembles that of Joe Lombardi’s Saints. Given his current ranking in the mid to low teens, that is bad news for Reggie Bush. The Saints offense never really committed to one particular running back, creating some tough fantasy choices. Now, obviously everyone on the offense gets a major bump up in points per reception (PPR) leagues, especially the running backs, but if you’re in a standard league I would be wary of taking Bush near his current ranking. It’s much more likely that Reggie Bush and Joique Bell’s fantasy totals will be closer together than the ranks imply given the new offense as well as the fact that Bell actually had more receiving yards than Bush last season. Bush had the edge in rushing but not by a significant enough margin where their ranking discrepancy is justified. With Bell ranked outside the top 20, it might be better off to just pass on Reggie Bush entirely and grab Bell late in your draft. That would be a sneaky move that could pay dividends later in the year.

Detroit Lions Rookies & Tight Ends

Remember that player we’ll get to in a bit? The Lions drafted tight end Eric Ebron out of North Carolina with the tenth pick in the draft. It’s tough to put a lot of stock into a rookie tight end, especially when the team decided to keep Brandon Pettigrew but Ebron is worth paying attention to. He would have to have a tremendous pre-season showing to consider drafting over the likes of guys like Greg Olsen and Kyle Rudolph but similar to Golden Tate’s situation, there has been room in for a second pass catcher in Detroit for a few years now. Pettigrew had a disappointing season last year so it’s likely the new regime is ready to move on from him completely, allowing Ebron to step right in to tight end relevancy. If Ebron gets off to a hot start, snatch him up quickly before your fellow league mates do. Outside of Ebron, the Lions were quiet in terms of offensive rookies. They drafted wide receiver T.J. Jones out of Notre Dame in the sixth round but at the moment he’s just another guy on the roster.

The Lions have always been fantasy relevant and that trend should continue this year. The only guy that has the potential to completely burn you is Reggie Bush. Other than that, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are proven enough to justify their pre-season outlook while guys like Joique Bell, Golden Tate, and Eric Ebron have tons of potential. There’s a nice mix of safety and upside in Detroit so don’t let their historically disappointing real life record scare you away from investing in some of their players.