MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/28/2025)

July 28, 2025

Frank's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/28/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Brent Rooker, Gleyber Torres, Adolis Garcia, and more!

We have a full slate of MLB action today, which is less common for a Monday, so I'm excited to dive into several spots for value on home run props. Today's hitters include Brent Rooker, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres, Adolis Garcia, and Willy Adames.  Each player featured on today's page either has positive batter-vs-pitcher data or is in a favorable environment.

The process of targeting my home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on a volatile market like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll before you know it.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, July 28, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/28/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, July 27:

• Brent Rooker (+350)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+360)
• Francisco Lindor (+370)
• Gleyber Torres (+400)
• Adolis Garcia (+400)
• Willy Adames (+450)

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The first home run prop starts with A's slugger Rooker, who continues to establish himself as one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball. The 30-year-old is slashing .272/.348/.494 with 21 home runs in 469 plate appearances.

This includes excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 14.3% barrel rate and 112.4 MPH maximum exit velocity.

We've seen Rooker excel at the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park this season, slashing .298/.391/.513 with eight home runs in 221 plate appearances.

It also bodes well that Rooker has some familiarity with tonight's starter, Luis Castillo. In 15 career plate appearances, Rooker has one homer with a .455 xwOBA against the veteran righty.

With that in mind, we'll take a shot on Rooker to hit his 22nd home run of the season against the division rival Mariners.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The next prop focuses on a Blue Jays slugger who hasn't lived up to expectations so far this season. Guerrero carries a .292/.396/.459 slash with 14 home runs in 460 plate appearances. While the contact has been there, the slugging percentage has dropped from .544 to .459.

408 feet
105.3 MPH

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knew he got all of this one 🚀

(MLB x @SportClips) pic.twitter.com/Dd0ugnlaX4

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2025

However, we're starting to see Vlad Jr. heat up at the plate. The star first baseman is currently on a nine-game hitting streak, which includes six multi-hit games and two home runs.

It's also encouraging that tonight's matchup against Zach Eflin looks exploitable. The veteran righty has given up an 8.8% barrel rate this season, which is the root cause of his 2.15 HR/9.

Vlad Jr. has had success against Eflin throughout his career, homering twice in 22 plate appearances. Put each of these factors together, and you can see why Guerrero looks appealing at +360 odds.

Francisco Lindor OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)

After dealing with a 0-for-28 slump from July 13 to 22, Lindor has started to find his groove once again, going 6-for-19 with one homer in his last four games.

The overall numbers are worse than last year, featuring a .249/.316/.436 slash, but the power has still been there for the veteran shortstop, as he has 20 home runs on the season.

The good news for tonight's matchup is it's a favorable spot against Dylan Cease, who has struggled against Lindor throughout his career.

Lindor has put up three homers with a .531 xwOBA in 14 plate appearances vs. the Padres righty. Those are the kind of batter vs. pitcher numbers that we can't ignore.

With how Lindor seems to have ended his prolonged slump, along with the positive data against Cease, you have to like the price at +370 odds.

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Gleyber Torres OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The next home run prop zeroes in on Torres, who hit a three-run home run yesterday, bringing his overall stat line to .276/.378/.415 with 10 homers in 400 plate appearances.

Gleyber Torres puts the @Tigers on the board with a 3-run blast! 🐅 pic.twitter.com/mnKsqKYtg3

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2025

What's great about this spot is that it's against Diamondbacks' lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The veteran has not only allowed a 1.56 HR/9 to righties, but he's struggled against Torres throughout his career.

Torres has a lot of familiarity with E-Rod from their time in the AL East, putting up four home runs and a .556 xwOBA in 34 career plate appearances. You have to love those batter vs. pitcher numbers.

I always like to target hitters to homer again once they've hit one recently, as it could be the start of a hot streak. So, let's take a shot on Torres to hit his 11th homer of the season in this spot.

Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Garcia is currently slashing .231/.278/.397 with 14 home runs in 407 plate appearances. While these are obviously underwhelming numbers, the veteran has hit four homers in his last 13 games, so he's slowly heating up.

This is a favorable spot against Jack Kochanowicz, as Garcia has two homers with a .634 xwOBA in eight career plate appearances against the Angels' righty.

We've seen Kochanowicz struggle all year, as highlighted by a 6.03 ERA (4.99 xERA) with a 1.53 HR/9 and an 8.3% barrel rate.

With that in mind, you have to like Garcia's chances of keeping the hot streak going in this one.

Let's take the plunge on this disappointing veteran to hit his fifth homer in the last 14 games and 15th of the season. Perhaps we're in store for a strong second half from the Rangers' outfielder.

Willy Adames OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Giants' prized free agent addition has had a disappointing season overall, including a .233/.321/.403 slash with 15 home runs in 447 plate appearances. This includes a 106 wRC+, which is a sizeable downgrade from 121 wRC+ from last season.

However, Adames has started to heat up at the plate. hitting safely in six of his last eight games. During this stretch, Adames has three home runs. In fact, he now has six of his 15 homers in July, so it's clear that he's found his groove at the plate.

Willy Adames goes deep for the second time today and brings the @SFGiants within a run! pic.twitter.com/zHEnpALyKw

— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2025

Additionally, the former Brewer has performed pretty well against tonight's starter in righty Mitch Keller, putting up one homer in 27 plate appearances.

When you consider that Adames has been quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately, coupled with his moderate success against Keller, you can see why taking the Giants' shortstop to homer looks appealing.

I like getting a +450 price on Adames considering these factors, so we'll take him to hit his 16th home run of the season in this spot.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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