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Kev Mahserejian analyzes risers and fallers for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Which known studs should break out of their slump and which newcomers on the scene will stick?
There is nothing quite like the ebbs and flows of fantasy baseball. Every at-bat of every game is the final straw based on that moment whereas in reality, players will have hundreds more across the next dozen weeks to neutralize whatever outcome came about.
Across the past two months, plenty of recently unknown players have thrived in fantasy baseball while many perennial All-Stars have disappointed. Below, I discuss which known commodities should work their way back to fantasy stardom and which flavor of the month may stick.
For all complaints, contact Kev Mahserejian on X (@RotoSurgeon). Without further ado, here are your Risers and Fallers for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season!
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Fantasy Baseball Risers
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
41% Rostered on Yahoo!
Is Byron Buxton BACK?? Many are asking and I may be answering. Buxton's slash line is much closer to his career average now as his average, OBP, and slugging percentage sit at .251/.300/.429. This is a massive improvement from earlier in the season when Buxton performed as a shell of himself.
Twins finally have a run off Brandon Pfaadt.
Byron Buxton goes deep for the second consecutive game, building on his .314 average and .881 OPS since June 7. pic.twitter.com/YLz02gUa1z
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) June 26, 2024
Since June 11, Buxton has posted three HRs, 10 runs, 10 RBI, and two SB while hitting over .300. His BABIP in this span is a tick higher than usual but this is just a period of positive regression for his bat after a cold start. The most important facet of this stretch is his power returning, but on top of that, his strikeout rate is just 20%. Buxton is seeing the ball better and maybe is back to full strength.
Verdict: Roster in all formats and pray he stays healthy
Spencer Horwitz, Toronto Blue Jays
23% Rostered on Yahoo!
ANOTHER Spencer Horwitz blast! pic.twitter.com/v3JPpzv2rX
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) June 23, 2024
The Blue Jays may have their 2024 breakout hitter in Horwitz. The rookie lefty is raking early in the season with two HRs, nine runs, six RBI, and a .348 AVG through 15 games. Horwitz is also walking nearly twice as much as he strikes out! He will not keep that pace of BB to K up, but he has shown throughout the minors that he can sustain a double-digit walk rate and below 20% strikeout rate, which typically makes for a great hitter when mixed with quality contact and power.
Verdict: Grab him in all 12+ team leagues regardless of format
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
5% Rostered on Yahoo!
The Twins are officially calling up top pitching prospect David Festa to start Thursday against the Diamondbacks. Festa is ranked the 99th-best prospect in baseball, but that may be too low given his minor league numbers this season. The 6-foot-6 right-hander holds a 3.77 ERA backed by a 3.13 xFIP with an elite 25.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate.
With his ability to generate ground balls (45.5%) and suppress HRs outside bandbox Triple-A stadiums, Festa could make real noise in the major leagues. Rookie pitchers are often a crapshoot, but he could be the best bet of 2024.
Verdict: Pick him up to stream at least everywhere. Arizona is just league-average vs. RHP
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
68% Rostered on Yahoo!
Gore has been a lot less pretty over his past five starts. In three of them, he has allowed at least four earned runs, which had not been the case in any game prior. The good news is these matchups have not been kind, either. Two of the three teams that nailed Gore (Diamondbacks and Mets) rank top-8 versus left-handed pitching this season by wRC+. The Padres are a lot less successful against them but somehow hammered Gore just as badly.
San Diego. IT'S LOUD. pic.twitter.com/NF9WzN2WsK
— MLB (@MLB) June 26, 2024
Nevertheless, in this five-game stretch, Gore has still provided solid enough numbers to continue holding on. His xFIP in three straight games was just below 3.00 as he accrued plenty of strikeouts and limited walks.
Verdict: Continue holding Gore but possibly bench him in daily leagues for his upcoming Mets start
Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees
67% Rostered on Yahoo!
Alex Verdugo began this season as the Yankees' best hitter, but that did not last long as MVP candidates Juan Soto and Aaron Judge got going. What also did not last is Verdugo making any quality contact. Verdugo's knocked just one home run since May 30 and is hitting .220 in this stretch.
Fortunately, for those forced to hold in much deeper leagues, his expected average of .270 and expected slugging of .413 suggest regression is due sooner than later. A month-long cold streak is enough to part ways with a fringe fantasy producer like Verdugo in most leagues since he has never crossed 15 HRs or even double-digit SB.
Verdict: Drop in all 12-team and shallower formats
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
91% Rostered on Yahoo!
What happened to our dear, sweet Bobby?? The potential ace of this staff after last season's heroics is no more. The Bobby Miller we know and love showed up for one game this season and vanished into thin air.
First start: 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 11 K
Every start since: 14 IP, 19 hits, 11 walks, 10 K
Miller has pitched 14 innings through *four* starts. Even Miller's minor league rehab stints were not even clean as he only struck out 10 while walking eight. He suppressed HRs well in that four-start minor league stretch, but that is the only silver lining. He is struggling beyond comprehension and the only explanation is his shoulder, which initially placed him on IL. The upside of that first start and what he provided in 2023 is too tantalizing to let go just yet in most leagues.
Bobby Miller’s in-zone percentage last night was astonishingly low - 32%. https://t.co/L3Dc7C3IAe pic.twitter.com/sETk78c1FD
— Jeff Spiegel (@JeffSpiegel) June 26, 2024
Verdict: Hold through the All-Star break and evaluate then based on any new information regarding his shoulder or any other injury
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