MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 9/30/26)

September 30, 2026

Get Keith Eyster's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 9/30/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

Football season might be in full swing, but the MLB playoffs also kicked off with a bang yesterday, and there are still plenty of opportunities across various markets.

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all use the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction site—Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees - No Runs First Inning (58%)

The starters were brilliant in Game 1, especially Cam Schlittler, and we have another promising matchup on tap. A pair of seasoned veterans in Max Fried and Sonny Gray are expected to take the mound in Game 2. Fried has shut down the opposition in an impressive 20-of-24 first innings this season. On the other side, Gray has turned in a scoreless frame in 22 of his 32 first-inning appearances.

With Aaron Judge left off the Wild Card roster, Gray will have one less elite slugger to worry about. The Yankees are expected to roll out six lefties at the top of their order, and Gray has slightly better numbers against lefties than righties this season. When we consider Gray's splits and Fried's elite track record, this looks like a strong bet.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres - Yes Runs First Inning (46%)

Both lineups have serious star power at the top of the order coming to the plate in the first inning. They were also the two best offenses in all of baseball over the second half of the season. The Padres flexed their might with two home runs on the first four pitches from Matthew Boyd on Tuesday, and I don't expect the Cubs to surrender quietly after being shut out in Game 1.

The pitching matchup is solid on paper, with Kevin Gausman toeing the slab for the Cubs and the Padres countering with Nick Pivetta. Gausman surrendered a run in just 10-of-32 first innings this season, and Pivetta has not surrendered a single first-inning run in eight starts.

Despite strong regular-season results from these two pitchers, we are getting decent plus-money with sluggers like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alex Bregman all scheduled to take a first-inning at-bat. One swing could make the difference here.

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MLB Team Totals

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Houston Astros over 3.5 runs (58%) vs. Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)

Sean Burke has put together a great season for the White Sox, but he shouldn't be considered an untouchable starting pitcher. For one, his control can escape him at times, and he also gives up plenty of fly balls even if he has done a decent job of keeping them in the park this season.

When looking at the White Sox bullpen, they may have used up two of their best options on Tuesday when they received nine outs from Hagen Smith and seven outs from Grant Taylor. Smith threw 38 pitches while Taylor was up to 54 pitches, and there is a good chance neither of them is available for Game 2.

If Houston can scratch out a run or two off the starter Burke, they should have a great chance to clear their team total in the later innings off a worn-out White Sox bullpen.

San Diego Padres over 3.5 runs (55%) vs. Chicago Cubs (Kevin Gausman)

The Padres blew past this number in Game 1, plating eight runs in their series-opening victory on Tuesday. They scored four runs against starter Matthew Boyd, and then added another four off the Cubs' beleaguered bullpen. The bullpen is the real target here, but Game 2 probable starter Kevin Gausman was also banged up in his final regular-season start.

The San Diego Padres hit two home runs in the first inning of a postseason game for the first time in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/plTCccFIEj

— Francys Romero (@FrancysRomero) September 30, 2026

The Cubs 'pen ranks 25th with a 4.54 xERA, and they surrendered the fifth-most home runs in baseball this season. Even if Gausman is on point after the injury scare, there's a good chance the bullpen surrenders some runs.

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Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

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Pitcher Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (44.5%)

Like the White Sox, the Astros also went the bullpen route in Game 1 and would probably prefer to get some length from their starter in Game 2. The leash has not been an issue for Hunter Brown, as he's averaged nearly 98 pitches per start over his last seven outings. Unfortunately, the walks have limited his efficiency a bit, and he's pitched into the 6th inning in just one of his last four starts.

Hunter Brown, Painted 97mph Front Door Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/ddcy3pwnOb

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 26, 2026

The good news is, the White Sox swing-and-miss a ton, racking up the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties this season. Brown went six innings with seven strikeouts when he faced them earlier this month, and it's worth a plus-money shot to bet he can do it again with the Astros season on the line.

Max Fried OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (51%)

The Yankees were rightfully cautious with Max Fried for much of the season, but the moments they have been saving him for have arrived. Fried has averaged nearly 17 outs per start despite throwing just under 85 pitches per outing this season. Two IL stints and a subsequent slow ramp-up period in his return both times have contributed to the light pitch count per start this season.

Fried should have a full leash if he is on his game tonight. He threw 97 pitches in his final regular-season start, and he threw at least 100 pitches in three starts early this season before he first landed on the IL. Fried has been an extremely efficient pitcher in his career, and the Yankees should have no problem extending him tonight as long as he is cruising.

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