RADIO
We have just two weeks remaining as the NFL season has made its way to Week 17, and it's almost time to say goodbye to more than half of the league for another eight months. We're in the green in this column, and we are working towards finishing the season strong, although the books aren't making things easy with some extremely sharp lines out there. With that mind, we just have to be a little more selective than we usually might earlier in the season.
Man, we were 3-0 after Sunday, and I thought we were going to get at least one of the Monday props to get us to a 4-1 or a 5-0 week, but it wasn’t quite in the cards. We got easy cashes out of Gerald Everett and Tyreek Hill. Adam Thielen and the Carolina Panthers made us sweat a little bit, but we were able to clear the bar. After Tommy Devito was averaging 2.6 seconds of pocket time throughout his time as the starter, Tyrod Taylor came in for the New York Giants and was getting the ball out in a hurry at just 2.3 seconds. On the Lamar Jackson prop, he just wasn’t needing to run the ball nearly as much as I expected, and the Baltimore Ravens threw the ball all over the yard on the San Francisco 49ers.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 17
Jahmyr Gibbs O47.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -115
Our first prop of the week comes from the Saturday night game that figures to have some serious fireworks. Speaking of fireworks, Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the most explosive players in the NFL this season, and he’s in a great spot in this one. He’s hit this mark in five straight games, and since Week 3, he’s hit this mark in nine out of those 11 games. Additionally, since David Montgomery returned from injury in Week 10, Gibbs has out-snapped his teammate in five out of those seven games.
The Dallas Cowboys have been struggling on the ground as of late, and it doesn’t appear that they’re going to see that change with Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle) still not practicing and unlikely to play this week. The strength of the Lions right now is their offensive line. With the struggles they’ve seen on defense, I expect them to try to keep the Cowboys’ offense on the sideline by controlling the ball and running a lot. Even if Montgomery gets a good amount of work, Gibbs’ explosiveness puts this line right in his reach all the time.
Kenneth Walker III O15.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
For our second prop of the week, we have another young running back that we’re targeting. Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III stumbled, along with the rest of the team, for a few weeks while dealing with an injury, but he looks to be back to form after his performances over the last two weeks. Walker has hit this number in back-to-back games, and he’s hit in eight out of 13 games this year overall.
On the other sideline this week, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are scrapping for a playoff spot, and they’re starting their third quarterback of the season in Mason Rudolph. They’re giving up an average of 23.8 running back carries per game this year, and they’ve allowed leading running backs on opposing teams to hit this mark in 10 out of their 15 games this year. Assuming the Steelers don’t get out to a big lead, I think the Seahawks should be able to feed Walker a fair bit.
Adam Thielen O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -105
For our third prop of the week, we’re going back to the well from last week in the form of Adam Thielen. Thielen’s line remains low compared to where it was back in October and November, and he’s getting a second straight week against a defense that has been trending in the wrong direction recently. Since Week 10, the Jaguars are the seventh-worst defense by DVOA against the pass, and on the year, they’ve allowed the 11th-most completions to opposing wideouts.
Thielen has hit this line in 11 out of his 15 games this year, and he continues to play a high rate of snaps. He was at 88 percent last week, and he has yet to go below 81 percent in any game this season. The Jaguars have stumbled recently, and they could be playing a backup quarterback in this game. However, they have the running game with Travis Etienne leading the charge to still move the ball on this Panthers’ defense. I like Thielen again in this spot.
Bijan Robinson O21.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -110
For our fourth prop of the week is another young running back in the form of Atlanta Falcons’ rookie Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s usage has been up and down, but his work in the receiving game has been the one constant for much of the season. He is third on the team in total receptions with 48, and the other running backs on the team have combined for 23. Robinson has hit this line in nine out of his 14 full games this season. I’m electing to ignore the nonsense game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where he was effectively inactive.
This week, he draws the Chicago Bears, who have been playing well as of late on both sides of the ball, but have struggled nearly all season long at containing pass catchers out of the backfield. They’re last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to running backs, and they’re second to last in receptions allowed to running backs. This is a great matchup for Robinson, and I like him a ton in this spot.
Saquon Barkley O14.5 Longest Rush
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Without too much thinking, I can confidently say this is the only time all season that I’ve had four of my five props go to the running back position with New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley getting the nod to round us out this week. Barkley is top-10 in the NFL in rushing yards, and he’s done that in part due to his explosiveness with 10.1 percent of his carries going for 10 or more yards. He’s eighth among running backs with 22 carries of 10 or more yards, and he’s hit this longest rush prop in nine of his 12 games this year.
The Los Angeles Rams have been a decent defense this season, although they are 17th by DVOA against the run. Ultimately, the main logic behind this pick comes from the aspect of volume. Barkley has 217 carries this season. Outside of the three games that he missed, backup running back Matt Breida has just 28 carries this year. When the Giants are running the ball, it’s with Barkley, and he’s explosive enough to rip off at least one big gain against this defense.
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