Fantasy Football Tight End Risers and Fallers - Yardage Regression Candidates

May 31, 2023

Rob Lorge identifies which tight ends will finish with more and fewer yards in 2023 than they did in 2022. Recognizing these players can help fantasy managers avoid negative and target positive values in their drafts. Who are some such tight ends this year?

If only NFL players performed exactly as they should, am I right? And I'm not talking about our own personal projections because that's incredibly subjective. Some fantasy managers might love Dalton Schultz, some may not. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about hindsight performance. Such as, if this player has 100 targets, we'd expect a certain level of production. Unfortunately, that's not what always happens. Sometimes, tight ends finish with 11 touchdowns on 59 targets like Robert Tonyan in 2020, and other times, tight ends finish with one touchdown on 110 targets like Kyle Pitts in 2021. These scenarios can create buying and selling scenarios for the following season, players with positive and negative ADP values, and that's what we'll be looking to identify here.

Here you can find the rest of the positive and negative regression candidates series:

• Wide Receiver Touchdown Risers
• Wide Receiver Touchdown Fallers
• Running Back Touchdown Risers
• Running Back Touchdown Fallers
• Wide Receiver Yardage Fallers
• Wide Receiver Yardage Risers
• Wide Receiver Targets Risers
• Wide Receiver Yardage Fallers
• Tight End Touchdown Risers and Fallers
• Tight End Yardage Risers and Fallers

For this series entry, we'll be focusing on the dreaded tight end position and looking to identify players who are likely to finish the 2023 season with more and fewer receiving yards than last season. Receiving yards are a byproduct of targets, which are the result of opportunity and talent. It's important to identify players whose roles could be growing or shrinking. By casting a spotlight on these players, fantasy managers can begin to spot positive and negative ADP values in their upcoming fantasy football drafts. Let's get started and please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Positive Yardage Candidates

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson is in a great spot to increase his 2022 production across the board (well, except for his touchdowns). Johnson played wide receiver in college and when he entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent, the Saints used him early as a receiver. It wasn't until this past year that he officially made the switch to tight end and while he's still being used as a pass-catcher more often than not, the position switch was an adjustment. He's still just 26 years old and the franchise made a big commitment to him this offseason in a number of faucets.

Traded away Trautman and didn’t use a pick (yet) on a tight end. Juwan Johnson came away from the #NFLDraft as a fantasy winner https://t.co/VlypmMm9FB

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 29, 2023

For starters, they extended him on a two-year, $12 million dollar contract. They made an even bigger commitment to him as the team's primary 2023 starter when they traded fellow tight end, Adam Trautman to the Denver Broncos. The tight ends currently behind Johnson on the depth chart include Taysom Hill, Lucas Krull, Miller Forristall, and Joel Wilson. If you're like me, you'll have only heard of Hill, who like Johnson, was listed as a tight end for the first time in his career in 2022. In all reality though, Hill is an offensive weapon. He certainly isn't a tight end though, not in any traditional sense of the word. He can't block and in six NFL seasons, he has a total of 60 targets, 43 receptions, and 465 yards.

Johnson is going to be the sole and primary tight end starter and that's going to result in a significant uptick in playtime. Last year, Johnson played on 65.5% of the team's snaps and Trautman was at 56.6%. As the current depth currently sits, we should expect Johnson's snap count to increase closer to 85%. Johnson also ran a route on 64.3% of the team's dropbacks. Trautman was at 28.8% and Hill was at 22.5%. It shouldn't be surprising if Johnson takes a lot of the opportunity and volume Trautman left behind.

Last year, the Saints passed the ball just 30 times per game, which was the seventh-lowest in the NFL. With the addition of Derek Carr this offseason and the return of Michael Thomas, fantasy managers should expect that number to increase, ever so slightly. An increase to 33 pass attempts per game, would have resulted in the Saints finishing at 19th last season. This provides the New Orleans pass-catchers with an extra 51 targets to be distributed. If we increase his route run rate to 75%, Johnson would increase his total runs route by 82.

His target per route run rate last year was 19.2%. If he continues to earn a target at that rate, the extra 82 routes would result in 16 targets. He finished 17th in total targets among tight ends with 65 and with 16 additional targets, he would've finished at 11th. Remember, receiving yards are a byproduct of targets, which are a byproduct of opportunity. Johnson will have an increase in opportunity in 2023, which will result in more targets, and therefore more yards.

Assuming this uptick in volume, it would be reasonable to expect Johnson to have around 125 more yards. This is, of course, assuming Johnson is the exact same player he was last year. However, since he's still young and will be entering his second season as a tight end, it would be completely reasonable to expect some natural progression in his talent level and thus, his production. Don't be surprised if he finishes with around 85–90 targets with 675–725  yards.

Mike Gesicki, New England Patriots

Mike Gesicki's production last season fell off a cliff and honestly, that's putting it mildly. The coaching change in Miami with Mike McDaniel triggered a change in Gesicki's role and his inability to block resulted in a massive change in playing time. He went from playing on 71.5% of the snaps, as he did in 2021, all the way down to 44.7%. The number of routes he ran dropped from 485, the third-most among tight ends in 2021, down to 329, which ranked just 20th.

This offseason the Patriots signed Gesicki to a one-year contract, worth up to $4.5 million dollars. The team traded Jonnu Smith to the Falcons but still has Hunter Henry under contract. New England also signed former Chiefs receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Prior to the 2022 season, Gesicki had finished with target shares of 15.3% (2019), 16.3% (2020), and 18.6% (2021). Target shares tend to be very consistent and predictable from year to year.

Gesicki will be competing for targets with DeVante Parker (12.2% target share in 2022 with the Patriots and 20.9% in 2021 with Miami), Kendrick Bourne (9.8% in 2022 and 12.4% in 2021, both with New England), Hunter Henry (12.1% in 2022 and 13.4% in 2021, both with New England), and Tyquan Thornton (12.0% in 2022 as a rookie).

#Patriots didn't take a wideout until Round 6. Even though their top-4 WRs are Juju, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne.

They have no choice but to give Mike Gesicki a ton of routes this season. https://t.co/RP8U7ieyAg

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 5, 2023

Smith-Schuster was also added and he had a 17.3% target share in his first season with the Chiefs last year. Prior to that, he had been at 13.6% (2021) and 20.0% (2020) with the Steelers. What you can see based on these numbers is that Gesicki has a very good opportunity to finish as the Patriots’ No. 2 target earner and receiver this upcoming season.

With the addition of Bill O’Brien as the offensive coordinator, fantasy managers should expect a more cohesive and effective Patriots offense. It also wouldn’t be surprising if they pass the ball just a wee bit more than last year.

The team had 540 pass attempts last year and if we give him a 17% target share, which is mostly in the middle of where he had been at prior to this past season, he’d finish with 92 targets. If their team volume increases to 570, a marginal increase of 1.75 pass attempts per game, a 17% target share would result in 97 targets.

Based on his career catch rate and yard-per-reception averages, this would give him a range of 655-690 yards, a big increase from the 362 he had last year. If you’d like to read a more in-depth piece on the new look, Patriot passing game, you can do so here.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

We’re going to be taking a leap of faith here with Chioziem Okonkwo. He’s a fantasy football favorite and many are predicting a breakout in 2023 and there are a lot of reasons to believe that could be on the horizon.

In 2022, he had an absolutely ridiculous 33.3% target per route run rate. This was the highest rate among tight ends with at least 25 targets. We have to take that number with a grain of salt because we’re dealing with a small sample for Okonkwo too, but it’s very promising.

He also finished third in yards after contact per reception with 7.9 and had the best yard-per-route run average at 3.1. All of these incredibly high-end efficiency numbers yearn for an increase in opportunity going into 2023 and the Titans seem ready to give it to him. Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim, the two veteran tight ends on the 2022 roster are no longer with the Titans.

As evidenced by the table above, Okonkwo has a massive opportunity on his hands. The only tight ends behind him on the roster are Trevon Wesco, rookie Josh Whyle, Kevin Rader, and Thomas Odukoya. Wesco is known for his blocking and will likely be stepping into the role Swaim left behind, but the expectation is that Okonkwo engulfs Hooper’s 2022 role in its entirety.

Assuming Okonkwo runs around 25 routes per game and even if we drop his 33.3% target per route run down to 25%, he’d finish with around 106 targets.

He finished with a 14.1 yard per reception average, which was first among tight ends, but with the increased volume is likely going to decrease in 2023. He also caught 69.5% of his targets last year.

Even if you drop his catch rate to 67.5% and his YPR to 12, on 106 targets he’d finish with 865 yards. He’s perfectly situated to be the Titans’ No. 2 receiver behind only Treylon Burks and that very well could lead to a 2023 breakout.

Negative Yardage Candidates

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram was my guy last year. I drafted him everywhere. Sadly, I believe he’s likely going to leave fantasy managers slightly disappointed this year. Following his 2022 season, Engram’s ADP has risen quite considerably. After all, he finished with 766 receiving yards, which was the fourth-most among tight ends.

The Jaguars’ target distribution is going to be much different than it was last year. That’s because they traded for Calvin Ridley. Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Engran will all be back, which essentially means, Ridley will be replacing the former Jaguar, Marvin Jones Jr.

The last time we saw Ridley play a full season was back in 2019. He played just five games in 2020, but when we look at his combined numbers between those two seasons up against what Jones provided last year, the differences are substantial.

Ridley is coming for a much bigger piece of the pie than what Jones had and that’s going to cause a ripple effect amongst the remaining pass-catchers. Zay Jones is going to feel this the most, but Engram will be affected by Ridley’s arrival, as well.

I do expect the Jaguars’ offense to improve once again this year, now in their second season under Doug Pederson and that will help offset some of the shrinking target volume with Ridley in town. While Engram’s receiving yard total shouldn’t be expected to drop considerably, it shouldn’t be surprising if he finishes in the 650-700 range with the increased target competition from the former Falcon.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets

The Jets have been busy this offseason. The biggest move was obviously trading for Aaron Rodgers, but they’ve been busy rebuilding their receiver group.

They traded Elijah Moore to the Browns and signed Allen Lazard from the Packers, Mecole Hardman from the Chiefs, and also Randall Cobb from the Packers. At this stage of his career, Cobb is nothing more than a calming goat for the Rodgers stallion, but still, he’s in New York now.

The team has also indicated, much to the surprise of couch general managers that they’ll be keeping Corey Davis. This makes for a very crowded group of pass-catchers, many of whom will be higher up on the target hierarchy than Conklin.

C.J. Uzomah will also be healthy entering the season, which could cut down on some of Conklin’s playing time. Uzomah struggled to stay on the field last year, missing two games, and leaving a few others early due to injury. This helped keep Conklin on the field and provided him with additional opportunities.

The difference between the 2022 and 2023 groups of pass-catchers is significant. Out goes Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore, but in comes Lazard, a healthy Corey Davis, Hardman, Cobb, and a healthy Uzomah.

Rest assured, Conklin won’t come close to the 552 yards he had last season. It shouldn’t be surprising if that number drops by 200 or more. There are simply far more explosive and better pass-catchers on the roster.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

Like Tyler Conklin, Gerald Everett is about to get pinched and pinched hard. Last year, he finished with 87 targets, 58 receptions, and 555 yards. That was despite Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing a combined 11 games. Those two combined for 182 targets, 129 receptions, and 1,647 yards. In 2021, when they played 32 games, they combined for 268 targets, 182 receptions, and 2,284 yards. If they’re healthy, Everett is in a ton of trouble.

He’s in trouble even if they’re not because Austin Ekeler is still there, as is Joshua Palmer, and first-round pick, Quentin Johnston. Due to injuries last year, Everett operated as the team’s No. 3 or 4 receiver most weeks. For a tight end, that’s a bad place to be, but with the Chargers' high passing volume, (711 attempts - second most in the NFL) Everett was still able to be productive.

However, with everyone healthy, Everett will fall to the No. 5 or No. 6 spot on Justin Herbert’s target hierarchy. Surely Allen, Williams, Ekeler, and the Johnston/Palmer duo will work ahead of him. That’ll leave Everett operating on the scraps of the scraps. All of his numbers should be expected to drop across the board this year. Things could get ugly.

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