Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Fallers - Negative Target Volume Regression Candidates

Rob Lorge identifies which receivers will have fewer targets in 2023 than they did in 2022. Recognizing these players can help fantasy managers avoid negative values in their drafts. Who are some such receivers this year?

Sometimes, things just seem to go the way you want them to. Sometimes the ball just bounces your way. Players have these kinds of seasons too and while we want to ride that wave while it's hot, fantasy managers need to be cautious of staying on the ride for the second go-around. Following any given season, there are always players whose next year, fantasy managers should be expecting a little better or sometimes, unfortunately, a little worse luck. Luckily, we’ve helped you identify some positive and negative touchdown and yardage regression candidates in a previous series.

Here you can find the rest of our positive and negative regression candidate series.

• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Positive & Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates - TE
• Negative Yardage Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Yardage Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Target Volume Regression Candidates - WR

For this installment, we’re going to be focusing on receivers who will have fewer targets than they had last season. Sometimes the market is able to identify these players and price them appropriately. Other times, not so much. We’ll be casting a spotlight on a few candidates whose current ADP might be too high in the early drafting season. Please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Jr. could be in for a rude awakening in 2023, along with his fantasy managers. Last year, Pittman finished 13th in targets per game among receivers. There aren't, however, a lot of reasons to believe Pittman is going to repeat that kind of target volume this season. In fact, his number of targets could decrease much more than fantasy managers are expecting.

Last year, the Colts averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game, which was the 10th highest in the NFL. Their star running back Jonathan Taylor, missed six games last year and left a few others early due to injuries. Following his absence, the rushing game struggled mightily and it forced the Colts into an offensive system they didn't have the tools to be successful in.

Their defense also fell off of a cliff. In 2021, the Colts' defense ranked ninth in points allowed, but that number fell to 28th this past season. The team's defensive performance put the offense in many situations where they were chasing points and playing in high-scoring affairs. A healthy season from Taylor and a defensive performance that more closely resembles 2021 is going to mean fewer pass attempts. Possibly a lot fewer pass attempts.

The Colts' new head coach is Shane Steichen. He was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles in 2021 during Jalen Hurts first season as the team's primary starter. That season could give us a blueprint of what to expect with rookie, Anthony Richardson likely behind center. In that 2021 Philadelphia season, they ranked 30th with a -6.4% pass rate over the expected average. Indianapolis also had a negative rate in 2022, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the 2021 Eagles team, finishing with a -3.7% rate.

The 2022 Colts also operated with a much faster pace of play. Their pace rate over expected was -1.8. They averaged a play every 29.3 seconds. The 2021 Eagles were much more patient and had a slower offense. They finished with a -0.1 pace over the expected average and ran a play every 31.3 seconds.

With Taylor returning to full health in 2023 and with the expected changes to their offensive style, it shouldn't be surprising to see the Colts' 35.5 pass attempt per game average in 2022, fall to the low 30 range, or even 30 itself.

The 2021 Eagles averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game. Even if we assume a 32-pass attempt per game average, that equates to a difference of 60 attempts over 17 games.

Fantasy managers can also expect more target competition in Indianapolis this season. 2022 second-round pick, Alec Pierce will be in his second season and it's perfectly reasonable to expect some growth from him as a player. The same can be said for 2022 third-round pick, Jelani Woods at tight end. The Colts also selected Josh Downs in the third round out of North Carolina, who had a 29.5% target share over his 2021 and 2022 collegiate seasons.

If we give the Colts a 31.5 pass-per-game average and drop Pittman's 2022 target share from 25.6% to 24.0% with the growth of his teammates, he'd finish with 128 targets, which is a drop of 13 targets. That may not sound like a lot, but it drops him to 24th in targets per game among receivers from 13th where he finished last year.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since 2020 – Tom Brady's first season with Tampa Bay – Chris Godwin ranks 15th among receivers in total targets with 353. That's despite missing nine games over that time span. A wildly impressive stat on the surface. Unfortunately, it looks a little less so with a deeper look. That’s because Godwin doesn't have a single season where he finished in the top 30 among receivers in target share.

His target share was 18.9% in 2020, 21.3% in 2021, and 21.8% in 2022. So, how was he able to rack up 353 targets over just 41 games? Since Tom Brady became a Buccaneer, no team has thrown the ball more than Tampa Bay.

In those last three seasons, the team has 2,108 pass attempts. Consider, the team with the fifth-most attempts is at 1,842, a difference of 266. Over the 50 games that have been played since 2020, that difference equates to 5.32 pass attempts per game. If we look at the 16th team, league average, the difference balloons to 403 total and a difference of 8.06 attempts per game. Simply put, Godwin has been playing with house money. Below is a table detailed Tampa’s pass rate, their pass rate over expected, and their NFL rank the past three years.

For the 2023 season, the Buccaneers will be passing the baton from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or at some point, Kyle Trask. The downgrade is massive and it’s going to have enormous consequences.

Tampa could still finish in the top 50% in total pass attempts this upcoming season and that would still represent a decrease of around 7-10 attempts a game. If they go from 45.4 (their 2022 pass attempt per game average) to 36.0, which would’ve been the ninth-highest last year, they’d have 160 fewer targets, which is a lot, and they’d still be in the top 10.

Now consider the efficiency between quarterbacks. From 2020-2022, Brady has completed 66.7% of his passes in Tampa Bay. Mayfield has one year at 63.0% or higher and it was all the way back in 2018, his rookie season. Since Mayfield’s rookie season, his completion percentage has dropped to 60.6% over the last four years and his career completion percentage is 61.4%. So, not only are there going to be a lot fewer passes going around, there are going to be a lot more passes that find the grass. Godwin’s target volume is going to drop and it could be quite significant.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk is fresh off the best season of his career and the first year he’s had more than 100 targets. His final 2022 stat line was 114 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,015 receiving yards. However, there are reasons as to why all three numbers might dip in 2023. They include a healthy Deebo Samuel and a completely up to speed, Christian McCaffrey.

There were essentially four different quarters for the 49ers’ offense last year and we’re going to be looking at them all. The first is quarter No. 1. This includes Weeks 1-7, pre-Christian McCaffrey.

As you can see from the table above, Deebo Samuel had the advantage in just about every category except for routes run. However, seven targets a game for Aiyuk is great. Fantasy managers will absolutely take that. Unfortunately, the addition of Christian McCaffrey was going to cause a ripple effect that would cause all their numbers to fall.

The table above is from Weeks 8-18. Not a single number was not negatively affected by CMC’s arrival. That’s not all that surprising, McCaffrey is arguably the greatest pass-catching running back in the league. He’s going to command a larger target share than the previous running backs the team was using.

However, one number to pay attention to is Samuel’s route run percentage. He was injured in Week 14 and missed the following three weeks. This significantly helped alleviate the numbers crunch between these four pass-catchers.

The table above focuses on the weeks post-CMC trade and the games where Samuel played in at least 50% of the snaps. This resulted in Weeks 14-17 being taken from the sample size.

When we do this, we see the gap grows between Samuel and Aiyuk. Aiyuk’s targets per game drops from 6.5 to 6.0. Remember, he started at 7.0 in the early portion of the season. Throughout this exercise, Aiyuk’s targets per game, target share, and targets per route run have all decreased, which brings us to the final quarter.

The following table looks at only the games in which Brock Purdy started at quarterback and games where all three pass-catchers - Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle - played at least 50% of the snaps. This gives us a four-game sample size, including their first two playoff games before Purdy’s injury. This table encompasses Weeks 13, and 18-20.

Once again, Aiyuk’s numbers have fallen. Now his targets per game are down to 5.8. That 1.2 target per game difference from where he was at in Weeks 1-7 would equal 20 fewer targets by the season’s end.

If Purdy is the starter for the 2023 season and the team has a healthy group of skilled players, it’s a virtual lock that Aiyuk will have fewer targets this upcoming season.

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

After years of starring as one of the best wide receiver duos in the league - first with Stefon Diggs as the alpha and then later as Justin Jefferson’s sidekick - Thielen has officially moved on. He now finds himself in Carolina where he’ll be catching passes from rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. There sure is a lot of change to account for in his new surroundings, but just as much change for the old wily veteran himself. Thielen isn’t the receiver he once was.

The table above puts on display just how far Theilen has fallen over the last three years. They always say, “Father Time is undefeated” and it certainly appears as if Father Time has another notch upon on his belt.

There may no longer be Justin Jefferson on the other side of the field, soaking up all the targets, but that’s not going to matter - Thielen’s targets are going down.

The Panthers have signed D.J. Chark and Hayden Hurst in free agency. They also have former 2021 second-rounder, Terrace Marshall Jr. still on the roster who played well down the stretch. Jonathan Mingo was also added in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. None of them have Jefferson’s talent, but at this stage of Theilen’s career, they don’t need to in order to cut into his target volume.

The other thing to consider is the team’s passing volume. Since 2021, the Vikings rank fourth in team pass attempts with 1,276, which equals 638 attempts per season, and 37.5 per game. It’s a very good bet, new head coach Frank Reich won’t be having rookie quarterback, Bryce Young, throwing the ball that much. Put it all together and Thielen will be lucky to have 90 targets.

Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars

Last year, Zay Jones operated as the team’s No. 2 receiver and he had a breakout season. From 2019-2021, Jones had a combined, 135 targets, 88 receptions, and 916 yards. In 2022 alone, Jones finished with 121 targets, 82 receptions, and 825 yards. We’ve heard of the year two breakout and the year three breakout, but Zay Jones just had a year six breakout. Fantasy managers should be awfully skeptical about those.

The table above shows the breakdown of the Jaguars’ 2022 pass-catchers and the roles they played. You can see that Zay Jones operated as the secondary option behind Christian Kirk. However, Calvin Ridley’s return looms large and is going to have major implications.

With Marvin Jones Jr. gone back to Detroit, fantasy managers should assume Ridley will be taking over for Zay Jones, and in all honesty, Ridley could be coming for Kirk’s No. 1 role, as well. Regardless, Zay is going to slide into the role previously occupied by Marvin Jones.

The last time we saw Ridley in action, back in 2020, he was operating as the full-blown alpha for the Atlanta Falcons.

Fantasy managers can rest assured Ridley is coming for a much bigger piece of the pie than the one that was given to Marvin Jones and that’s gonna create a scenario where he’s going to start taking from others and the first culprit will be Zay Jones.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Zay’s targets fall from 121 to the 85-95 range for the 2023 NFL season.

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