Running Backs Touchdown Risers for Fantasy Football - Positive Regression Candidates

We’re back and going to keep this series moving along here. Today, we’ll be focusing on the running back position and specifically the running backs fantasy managers can expect to find the end zone more frequently in 2023 than they did last year. These running backs make for excellent targets in your drafts this season.

Certainly, we can identify certain players who vastly over-performed in this department – looking at you Jamaal Williams – but sometimes it can be more difficult to find the players who under-performed. Identifying these players can be a fantastic way to find more value in your fantasy drafts.

Touchdowns are such an important part of running back scoring and so often rankings and our own personal biases can be impacted by what happened last season, right? We’re all about “what have you done for me lately”. Often times things don’t always happen as they should or as we’d expect and these create excellent buying opportunities in the future if we can recognize such players.

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Previous Series Entries

• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates at Receivers
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates at Receivers 

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

There are a whole host of reasons to love Travis Etienne in 2023, but one that rarely gets talked about is the very obvious fact that he is going to score a whole bunch more touchdowns this upcoming season than he did last year. A whole bunch. He finished with just five last year, but it should come as no surprise if he scores double-digit touchdowns next year and no, I’m not joking.

He finished 31st in total touchdowns among running backs. Guys like Latavius Murray, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Samaje Perine, Jeff Wilson, Alexander Mattison, and Cam Akers all scored more than him. 31st in touchdowns despite having the 13th most carries in the NFL and the 16th most overall touches. Not just that, but his red zone utilization was outstanding, and still, just five total touchdowns. You can take it to the bank that won't happen again in 2023.

In 2022, Etienne had 40 red zone carries, the same number as Josh Jacobs who scored 12 times. Their 40 red zone carries were tied for the fifth-most among running backs and Etienne scored just five times. Every other running back with at least 40 red zone carries finished with at least nine touchdowns – at the minimum – four more than Etienne, but honestly it gets better.

The former Clemson Tiger had 23 carries inside the 10-yard line, again the same amount as Josh Jacobs. Once again, every single player with at least 23 carries inside the 10-yard line finished with at least nine touchdowns. Etienne had five.

The second-year runner finished with 10 carries inside the 5-yard line, which was tied for 10th. Jacobs had just one more such carry last year. In the end, Etienne had almost an identical red zone workload that Jacobs had who scored 12 times, and the same number of touches as rookie Kenneth Walker who scored nine. Etienne had five.

Etienne finished as the RB24 with a 12.1 full-PPR PPG, including the first few weeks of the season when James Robinson was still starting for the Jaguars. Etienne was officially given the starting nod in Week 6 and during this time span his PPG average jumped to 13.4, which was RB18. This also includes a game where he played under 10% of the snaps because he got injured. If we eliminate that game from the sample, his PPG average jumps to 14.5, which would’ve been RB12.

Let’s start with his full-season PPG average and give Etienne five more touchdowns to get him to double-digits, which based on his total volume and red zone utilization is more than fair. With an additional 30 points, Etienne’s PPG average would’ve jumped to 13.8 and an RB16 finish.

Now, let’s say of those five additional touchdowns, two of them were scored in Weeks 1-5 when Robinson was still a Jaguar, and three of them were scored in Weeks 6–18 after he became the starter. Remember his 14.5 PPG average from Weeks 6-18, sans the injury-shortened week? Well, with three additional touchdowns, it would’ve been at 16.2 – RB9. Are you sold yet? Because you should be.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

There have been rumors that Joe Mixon could be traded or cut, but as of right now, he’s still a Cincinnati Bengal. After they were unable to re-sign Samaje Perine, I’d expect Mixon to remain with the team for one more season. While the Bengals are likely to bring in another running back in the draft solely because they need to form a “we don’t have enough guys” standpoint, Mixon should once again, be expected to be the primary ball carrier for the Bengals.

Working off that assumption, Mixon should be expected to score more touchdowns in 2023 than he did last year. He finished 2022 with the ninth most touches, 16th most carries, seventh-most running back targets, ninth-most red zone carries, second-most carries inside the 10-yard line, sixth-most carries inside the 5-yard line, and the sixth-most red zone targets among running backs. Despite all of that, he finished just 14th among running backs in total touchdowns. I mean, if that isn’t a gigantic “what in the world happened?”, I don’t know what is.

Last year, there were 750 passing touchdowns and 487 rushing touchdowns, so the league average for touchdowns scored was roughly 61% passing and 39% rushing. This split has held pretty consistently over the past few years. The Bengals last year, however, scored 71% of their touchdowns via the pass and 29% via rush attempts. Certainly, with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, you could assume Cincinnati’s splits would favor the pass, but that much?

The Bengals also signed Orlando Brown Jr. this offseason, which will undoubtedly help their offensive line, which is also going to help Mixon and the running game, especially when they get down close to the goal line.

In 2021, Mixon scored once every 21 touches, but last year he scored just once every 30 touches. With the Bengals poised to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league again in 2023, an improvement along the offensive line, and likely just a rookie behind him on the depth chart, fantasy managers should feel very confident that his overall volume and red zone utilization should lead to 2-4 more touchdowns in 2023.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

I am fully expecting Alvin Kamara to be suspended anywhere between 2–6 games to start the NFL season and I’d still bet on him scoring more touchdowns this year than he did last. Consider, from his rookie season to 2021, Kamara averaged a touchdown every 19.1 touches. He had never scored fewer than six times in any season. Last year, he scored just four times and scored once every 70 (!!!) times.

From 2017-2021, Kamara averaged 257 touches and 13 touchdowns per season. Last year, he had 280 touches and four touchdowns. If you’re like me, none of that makes sense. You can totally believe that maybe Kamara’s lost a step or that losing Drew Brees hurt his touchdown potential or that he’s being used in a slightly different way under Dennis Allen than he was under Sean Payton, but I still don’t believe that should result in the touchdown discrepancy we saw last season.

Last year, Kamara finished ninth among running backs in total touches, but just 41st in total touchdowns. I will admit, however, his red zone utilization wasn’t nearly as good as his overall touch total. He finished just 36th in red zone carries among running backs with 20, 39th in carries inside the 10-yard line, and just 36th in carries inside the 5-yard line. However, he did finish sixth among running backs in red zone targets with 11.

Many believe Derek Carr is a sizable upgrade at quarterback for the Saints and while I don’t think this is a guarantee, I certainly accept the possibility that it may be true. If it is, the entire Saints’ offense benefits.

Outside of Carr, most of the starting lineup returns, which should be a boost to the offense and their individual player’s fantasy prospects. That’s because often times we see teams take a step forward in the second season of a new regime. This will be everyone’s – except Carr’s – second season under Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael.

The other aspect that should help Kamara is better health from his offensive line. Rookie first-round pick, left tackle Trevor Penning, played under 12% of the team’s snaps last season. Cesar Ruiz missed three games, Ryan Ramczyk missed one, Andrus Peat missed six, and Erik McCoy missed four. Their offensive line is a strength of their team with four former first-round picks and a fifth starter who was a second-rounder. If they’re healthier in 2023, that will be a big boon to the Saints’ running game.

We don’t quite know how many games he’ll be suspended, so it’s somewhat bold to say he’ll score more in 2023 than he did last year when the possibility of him missing six games looms, but even still, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him to score five touchdowns in 11 games even if the worst-case scenario comes to pass. In either case, you can pretty much guarantee he’s going to score touchdowns at a higher rate.

Right now, he’s being drafted as the RB34 on Underdog, which presents considerable upside. The unknown of his legal situation is concerning and no doubt, lowers his cost, but fantasy managers have to be intrigued at that price.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson is another one of my favorite bets to score more touchdowns in 2023 and there are several reasons for this. Last year, he scored five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown for a total of six. His five rushing touchdowns were tied for 25th and his six total touchdowns ranked 22nd among running backs. However, he had 210 carries, which was the 16th most, and had 88 targets, which was the third-most among running backs. Most would expect that kind of workload to have resulted in more touchdowns.

It's not just his total touches though, it's the kind of touches he received as well that tells me Stevenson is going to score more this season. He had the 19th most red zone carries with 31, the 14th most carries inside the 10-yard line with 19, and the 21st most carries inside the 5-yard line with seven. This kind of red zone utilization should have resulted in more than six total touchdowns.

The other reason fantasy managers should be optimistic about Stevenson's touchdown prospects is the fact that both coaches, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, no longer have any affiliation with the New England team. This cannot be understated. The Patriots offense took a major step back last season, as did quarterback Mac Jones, but now with new offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien at the helm, fantasy managers should expect the entire New England offense to be more effective and efficient.

In 2021, as a rookie, Stevenson scored five touchdowns on just 147 total touches. This past year, he scored six on 279 touches. The difference here is scoring a touchdown once every 29 touches as a rookie and once every 47 touches this past season. It's not out of the question for Stevenson to score 2-4 more touchdowns in 2023.

He finished with a 14.7 full-PPR PPG last year and if we give him three more touchdowns, his PPG average would've increased to 15.7. This would've improved his RB11 finish to RB9. However, while it's reasonable to expect Stevenson's touchdowns to increase, it's also possible his target total could decrease in 2023.

Stevenson is currently being drafted as the RB14 on Underdog and that's a good range for fantasy managers to target him. If his target total holds relatively steady without a major decrease, the likely increase in touchdowns presents some upside on his current price.

Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

This one might come as a surprise, but there's a lot to like about both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson's touchdown potential in 2023. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised to see both players score more touchdowns this upcoming season. Let's take a look at their 2022 workload total and red zone utilization.

As you can see from looking at the table above, Robinson and Gibson both finished higher in every, single category than they did in touchdowns scored with the exception of Robinson's total number of targets. That's usually a good sign that they should've scored more touchdowns last season.

As I previously stated, typically the touchdown split between passes and rushes is right around the 60/40 mark, but Washington had 73% of its touchdowns come via the pass compared to just 27% rushing. This indicates we should be expecting a regression to the mean. We'd expect that even if the status quo from their 2022 had stayed the same, but the Commanders will have a new starting quarterback under center this upcoming season, most likely Jacoby Brissett.

Last year, the Washington quarterbacks combined for a 4.3% touchdown rate. Brissett finished his season with the Cleveland Browns with a 3.3% touchdown rate and has a career rate of just 3.0%. While he has done an excellent job not turning the ball over, he's struggled mightily to throw touchdowns. With the likelihood that the pendulum between rushing and passing touchdowns would've swung ever so slightly this upcoming season to favor this running back duo, the quarterback change only strengthens that belief.

The other reason fantasy managers should like this duo's chances of scoring more touchdowns is the change at offensive coordinator. The Washington Commanders hired former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who has been coaching underneath the great Andy Reid since 2013. While we all remember the disaster that was Matt Nagy, it's fair to expect a more efficient offense from Washington as a whole this season.

Despite the possible touchdown boost for Robinson, he's still not a player I would have on my radar at his current price tag which is right around RB36, but Gibson is someone I'm targeting at his current RB40 cost. Last year in Kansas City, the Chiefs used former Washington running back Jerick McKinnon a lot near the red zone in the passing game, a role more suited for Gibson. He could be one of the better deals this offseason as he looks like he'll be in a near 50/50 split with Robinson but has the receiving role currently locked down and they split the red zone work right down the middle.

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier is another excellent bet to score more touchdowns in 2023, assuming the Falcons don't select Bijan Robinson in this year's draft. There is some smoke about that being a legit possibility and right now on DraftKings, Robinson is currently the player with the highest probability of being selected at No. 8, which is currently the pick owned by Atlanta. For our purposes here, we'll be working off the assumption that they pass on Bijan and Allgeier enters the season as the lead runner for the Falcons.

Allgeier finished last year 41st in total touchdowns with just four. However, consider... he ranked 23rd in total touches and tied for ninth in red zone rushing attempts with 38. He was tied with Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon who scored eight and seven rushing touchdowns respectively. Just based on these two statistics alone, Allgeier is an obvious candidate who should have scored more last year, and assuming there's no big change to the status quo – Bijan Robinson, cough, cough – he'll score a decent bit more in 2023. The reasonings don't stop there, however.

He had 17 carries inside the 10-yard line, which was the 15th most among running backs. He was tied for 15th with Derrick Henry, who just so happened to have scored 13 rushing touchdowns last year. That said, there was one area where Allgeier lagged behind, carries inside the 5-yard line. He finished with just six such carries, which ranked 26th among running backs. That said, there is some reason for optimism that this could increase in 2023.

Teammate Cordarrelle Patterson had five carries inside the 5-yard line and quarterback Marcus Mariota had four such carries. Mariota is no longer with the Falcons and Allgeier had mostly unseated Patterson as the primary ball carrier for the Falcons. From Weeks 1–5, Patterson averaged 56% of the team's snaps, while Allgeier was at 42%. For the rest of the season, however, Allgeier played on 53% of the snaps compared to Patterson's 44%. With Allgeier becoming the primary ball carrier for the Falcons, we can realistically expect him to garner a bigger share of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line this season.

During this time span, Allgeier averaged 15.5 touches per game. Over 17 games, this would result in 264 total touches. There were 11 running backs with touches between 245–285, a plus/minus 20 of his 265 touch pace. Six of them scored nine or more touchdowns. Of the five that didn't score nine touchdowns in this range of touches, three of them are on this list – Kamara, Stevenson, and Etienne. A fourth, Dameon Pierce would've been another great candidate had the Texans not signed Devin Singletary.

There are some concerns about his touchdown potential in 2023, however. For instance, despite abysmal quarterback play, the Falcons still managed to finish 15th in scoring. With their poor quarterback play, it would be unrealistic to expect Atlanta to score as efficiently as they did last year. Along this same line, the Falcons scored 17 passing touchdowns and 17 rushing touchdowns. As previously mentioned, the NFL average split among touchdowns is 60/40, but the Falcons were 50/50. While we shouldn't expect their run-heavy offensive structure to change, it would be reasonable to expect the Falcons to score more passing touchdowns this upcoming season.

Still, despite that, fantasy managers should still be quite optimistic about Allgeier's better-scoring potential in 2023. He was a very efficient player last year, averaging 5.2 yards per touch, which was the 19th-best among running backs. It's reasonable to expect him to be better in his second season.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor may seem like a poor candidate for such an article considering he missed six games, but his inclusion on this list comes not just based on his overall touchdowns, but based on the rate at which he scored touchdowns last year.

As a rookie, he scored a touchdown every 22 touches. In 2021, he scored once every 18.5 touches. Pretty consistent rate over two separate seasons. From 2020–2021, Taylor scored once every 20 touches. However, in 2022, he scored once every 55 times. Based on his career average prior to 2022, based on his 220 touches, he should've scored 11 times, instead of the four that he did. Think about that. That's crazy! Now, it's not always as easy as that because scoring touchdowns isn't just about touches, but rather what kind of touches.

He finished 41st in total touchdowns last year despite being 24th in total touches. His red zone utilization also far out-paced his touchdown rank. He finished 2022 with 31 red zone carries, which ranked 19th most. He had 16 carries inside the 10-yard line, which ranked 20th, and finished 15th with eight carries inside the 5-yard line. Despite missing six games, he still had solid red zone utilization which should have resulted in more than the four touchdowns he ended up scoring.

While there are still question marks about the Colts' quarterback situation, fantasy managers should still expect the Colts to score more points in 2023. They were tied for 30th in the NFL in points scored and some natural regression and a coaching change should result in a more efficient scoring offense in 2023. While there's no reason to expect the Colts to be much better than the league average in this department and even that is somewhat optimistic, being better than last year isn't a high bar to cross.

Another reason to be optimistic about his scoring potential is the improvement of the team's offensive line. They started Matt Pryor at left tackle last year, who is a fourth-year, former sixth-round pick. The Colts were his second team in four years. 2022 third-round rookie, Bernhard Raimann started around 61% of the team's snaps and there's reason to believe the left tackle will see improved play in his second season. The guard spot opposite Quenton Nelson was also a revolving door with no one playing more than 57% of the team's snaps. Assuming better health and better play from the starting five, Taylor and the entire Colts' offense should see an improvement.

Taylor is going to be the focal point of the Colts' offense and he's my bet to lead the league in touches. With a heavy number of touches, it's no question that he'll score more touchdowns in 2023 than he did last year, but there are also plenty of reasons to believe he'll score at a much higher rate than he did last year, which could result in a season where he scores anywhere between 6-8 more times than he did last season.

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