X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Wide Receivers Touchdowns Risers for Fantasy Football - Positive Regression Candidates

Touchdowns are such an important part of fantasy football, but they're hard to predict and every year there are outliers. Who can we expect to catch more touchdowns in 2023?

Touchdowns can be a vital part of a player’s fantasy football scoring or they can be a thorn in their side. Unfortunately, touchdowns continue to be one of the more difficult statistics to predict year in and year out. Instead, we project anticipated volume and hope the touchdowns will follow. Certainly, looking at a team’s overall offensive talent will help determine how many opportunities any given player will have, but even that has been known to play tricks on us.

It can be incredibly frustrating rostering a player who gets chance after chance but fails to regularly find the end zone. Three to five touchdowns at the end of the season can be the difference between a player leaving a sour taste in your mouth or someone you can’t wait to draft again next season. It probably shouldn’t be like that, but touchdowns are worth the most points and it’s hard to have a week-winning fantasy score without finding the end zone at least once.

Every year there are a handful of outliers on both sides of the spectrum – guys who scored far too less and guys who overachieved finding pay dirt – and here, we’re going to be looking at a few guys from both sides of the aisle. In the first installment of this touchdown regression candidate series, we’ll be looking at five wide receivers fantasy managers should expect to score more touchdowns in 2023 than they did in 2022. In the following days, we’ll be covering which receivers will score fewer touchdowns, as well as tackling the running back and tight end positions, as well. Let’s get started.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

This one should be no surprise. Diontae Johnson is the absolute poster boy for touchdown regression. It is not a stretch to say that Johnson’s 2022 season was the biggest anomaly in NFL History. Guys do not have 147 targets (seventh-most in the NFL) and 16 red zone targets (18th-most) and not score a touchdown. This does not happen.

The most targets by a player without scoring a touchdown was 109 back in 1996 by Michael Timpson, which ranked 33rd-most that year. Johnson had 38 more than that. Timpson played in 15 games that year, so 7.2 targets per game. Timpson would’ve needed to play 21 more quarters of football before he reached Johnson’s 2022 target total. Timpson also had just nine red zone targets that year, 47th-most. Timpson would’ve needed to play 12 (!!!) more games to reach Johnson’s 16 red zone targets.

In 2020, Johnson finished with 144 targets and 10 red zone targets. He scored seven times that year. He finished with 169 targets and 22 red zone targets in 2021 and found the end zone eight times. Last year, I just want to reiterate this he had 147 targets with 16 red zone targets and zero touchdowns. Zilch. Nada.

Last year, he scored 180 full-PPR points and averaged 10.6 PPG. Due to that, he’s ranked right around the WR3/4 spot in drafts, which is roughly in the sixth round. If we give Johnson’s 2021 stat line just five more touchdowns and add 30 points to his 180-point total, we get to 210 and a 12.4 PPG average, which would’ve been WR31. If we give him seven touchdowns, he moves up to WR27.

There is no better bet than Johnson to score more touchdowns in 2023 than he did last year. It wasn’t that long ago when Johnson was an incredibly valuable fantasy football asset – he was the WR9 in 2022 and WR22 in 2021. Don’t let Kenny Pickett worry you. Or Chase Claypool. Or Allen Robinson. At his current price tag, there’s a ton of room for upside and it’s quite difficult to see where he’d be a net negative at his current cost.

 

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

This one might come as a surprise to you, but it really shouldn’t. Not when we look at the numbers from 2022. While many believe that Courtland Sutton had a down season, that really isn’t the case. He finished with 109 targets, 64 receptions, 829 yards, and two touchdowns in 15 games. If we’re being honest though, it was more like 14 games because in one game he played just 40% of the snaps before leaving with an injury. He had just a single target that he didn’t catch. If we take his stat line by 14 games instead of 15, we find that he was on pace for 132 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,006 yards. That’s despite abysmal quarterback play and being on the 32nd-ranked NFL offense. Really not that bad, all things considered, am I right?

We’re here to talk specifically about Sutton’s touchdown potential in 2023. With the trade for head coach Sean Payton, fantasy managers should be expecting an improved offense this year. Really, we should have been expecting that even if Nathaniel Hackett was still in town just because no offense is that bad in consecutive years. At the very least, it would be very rare. While I don’t expect the Broncos to be a top-12 offense, it’s not out of the question for them to hover around the 18-22 range, which is quite the climb from where they were last year – dead last.

Fantasy managers also shouldn’t expect Russell Wilson to get back to the way he played in Seattle, but there’s a lot of room between what we saw in 2022 and his level of play in Seattle. He had a 3.3% touchdown rate last year. He hasn’t had a season under a 6.0% touchdown rate since 2016. Prior to 2022, he had just two seasons with a touchdown rate under 6.0% in his entire 10-year career up to that point.

His play in 2022 fell off a cliff. Now maybe you believe that’s it for Russell Wilson and he's finished. I’m not one of those people. Again, I don’t expect him to get back to his prime-Seattle years, but I expect a much better version than what we saw in 2022. He completed just 60.5% of his passes last year. In Seattle, he had just one season with a completion percentage lower than 63.0%. His QB Rating was 84.4. From 2012-2021, he had just two seasons with a QB rating below 100 and neither of them dipped below 92.5. Again, there is a ton of room between his Seattle play and his 2022 play and I expect Wilson ends up somewhere in the middle, which is a major boost to Sutton’s 2023 value and his touchdown potential this season.

Now, let’s get back specifically to Sutton. He finished 30th in the NFL in targets but finished tied for 111th in touchdowns. He was also tied for 45th in red zone targets with 12 and tied for 43rd in targets inside the 10-yard line with six. This is a workload that should’ve resulted in 4-6 more touchdowns.

He finished with a 10.6 full-PPR PPG average, but if we eliminate his injury-shortened game, his average jumps to 11.3. If we give him four more touchdowns with and without that injury-shortened game included, his PPG average would rise to 12.2 or 13.1, respectively. If we give him six more touchdowns, it would rise to 13.0 or 13.9, respectively. This makes Sutton one of the better values to be had early on. He currently has an ADP hovering around the seventh round and is being drafted around WR45. He’s a great value pick at this cost.

 

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

We’re going to work off the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is a New York Jet. My sanity demands it. Last year, the Jets’ quarterbacks threw 15 total touchdowns. They had a touchdown rate of just 2.4%. Remember how we all loved Mike White for Garrett Wilson last year? Well, White’s touchdown rate was just 1.7%. Granted, that was over just a four-game sample size and he still was an amazing improvement to Zach Wilson, but White struggled mightily getting the ball into the end zone. All the Jets’ quarterbacks did, but White did the most. Wilson had a 2.5% touchdown rate and Joe Flacco was at 2.6%.

Funny story, a true story… you could add up White’s, Flacco’s, and Wilson’s touchdown rate and it would be less than Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown rate in 2021. For as down of a season as Rodgers had last year, you could add Flacco and White’s touchdown rate and it would still be less than Rodgers.

Rodgers has not had a touchdown rate worse than 4.2% since he became the starter in Green Bay. His career average is 6.2%. In 2022, he was at 4.8%, and in 2019, he was at 4.6%. Those were his two most recent down seasons. If we take Rodgers’ worst touchdown rate of his career, 4.2%, and use the Jets’ total pass attempts from last year, he would’ve added 11 more touchdowns. If we use his 2022 rate of 4.8%, he would’ve added 15. If we use his career average of 6.2%, he would’ve added 24. I double-checked the math too because that sounds insane.

Wilson finished his rookie season with 147 targets, tied with Diontae Johnson for the seventh-most in the NFL. He was also 12th in red zone targets with 19 and ninth in targets inside the 10-yard line with 10 such targets. That resulted in just four touchdowns, which was tied for 46th. If we eliminate quarterback play, based on his target volume we would’ve expected Wilson to finish in the top 10 for touchdowns, meaning at least nine or more. Instead, he scored four times.

He finished as the WR30 in full-PPR PPG, but with five more touchdowns added to his total, he would’ve jumped all the way up to 14.4, which would’ve been good for a WR18 finish in 2022. That doesn’t factor in the improvement Wilson is in store for in other areas of the field with Rodgers behind center. He has legit WR1 upside in 2023 with the expected quarterback upgrade.

 

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

If Diontae Johnson did not exist, DK Metcalf would be this year’s poster boy for positive touchdown regression. Geno Smith threw for 30 touchdowns, fourth-most in the NFL, and had a 5.2% touchdown rate, which was seventh-best. Metcalf finished with the 12th-most targets at 141, the third-most red zone targets with 27, and the ninth-most targets inside the 10-yard line with 10. So, let’s see. Good quarterback play? Check. A high number of team passing touchdowns? Check. A ton of targets? Check. Heavy red zone utilization? Check. Fantastic. What are we looking at? Like, 10 touchdowns? 12? More? Nope. Fantasy managers received six.

If I told you that Smith would throw for 30 touchdowns, Metcalf would have 141 targets with 27 red zone targets, how many touchdowns would you have guessed he’d have scored? At a minimum, we’re talking at least 10, but realistically, 12 seems more than fair all things considered, but nope, we got six.

Of his 27 red zone targets, Metcalf caught just eight of them – a disappointing catch rate of just 29.6%. Among the top 50 players in red zone targets, his red zone catch rate was the second-worst. That “winner” is actually Garrett Wilson with a 26.3% catch rate. Metcalf and Wilson were the only two players in the top 50 of red zone targets to have a catch rate worse than 30%. If you’re wondering who had the third-worst catch rate, Courtland Sutton at 33%. Noticing a trend?

With Metcalf’s 6’4 and 235-pound frame and his career 61.3% catch rate, seeing his red zone catch rate at just 26.3% is certainly an outlier that fantasy managers want to capitalize on. He finished as the WR25 in full-PPR PPG, but if we give him four more touchdowns, to at least get to double-digits, he would’ve finished as the WR17. If we give him six more touchdowns, he would jump to 15.4 PPG and a WR12 finish.

From 2019-2021, Metcalf earned a total of 358 targets. He scored 29 touchdowns over that time period, which results in an 8.1% touchdown rate. He finished with a 4.2% touchdown rate last year. In 2020 and 2021, he finished with 129 targets in both seasons and ended with 10 and 12 touchdowns, respectively. He’s not currently priced as a WR1, but he absolutely has that kind of potential, making him one of the better early-season prices this year.

 

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Drake London was held back during his rookie season by an offensive system that was hyper-focused on the running game. They finished 31st in pass attempts and passing yards compared to 1st and 3rd in rush attempts and rushing yards, respectively. The Atlanta quarterbacks combined for just 17 passing touchdowns, but did have an average touchdown rate of 4.1%

While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a major deviation from their 2022 game plan, a slight increase in their overall pass attempts would be reasonable to expect considering just how pass-adverse they were last year, averaging just 24.4 pass attempts per game. Even if they increase that to 27-28 per game, that would be a major boon to London’s value in 2023 and his touchdown expectancy this upcoming season.

Even with the team’s poor passing performance last season, we would have expected the former Trojan to find the end zone more than four times. He finished 27th in total targets with 117. His 16 red zone targets were tied for 18th and his nine targets inside the 10-yard line were tied for 15th. He caught just 50% of his red zone targets and just 33.3% of his targets inside the 10-yard line. Considering London’s size and his penchant for contested catches in college, fantasy managers should be expecting an improvement in both categories this upcoming season.

Drake London is currently being drafted as the WR25, despite finishing as the WR43 last year in full-PPR PPG. Even if we give London three more touchdowns in his 2022 season, his PPG average would increase to 11.5 and he would’ve finished as the WR36. London needs a lot more things to go right for him other than a positive touchdown regression to pay off at his current ADP.

I’d like to say we should be expecting improvement from the quarterback position, but with the third-round, second-year player, Desmond Ridder and Nicke" data-id="17179">Taylor Heinicke expected to be the primary quarterbacks this season, that’s far from a given. These two signal-callers not only will keep the team’s passing efficiency below average, but also the team’s passing volume. Because of this, it’s possible London may find himself on this very same list again next season, although we certainly hope not.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Jordan Addison

Pleads Guilty to Lesser Offense, Gets Fine and Probation
Jordan Mims

Titans Add Backfield Depth With Jordan Mims
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Believed to be Recovered From Shoulder Injury
Najee Harris

Chargers Place Najee Harris on NFI List
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF