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This is our second installment into my touchdown regression candidate series where I'll be identifying positive and negative touchdown regression candidates at wide receiver, running back, and tight end. The first entry focused on receivers fantasy managers should expect to experience positive touchdown regression in 2023 and you can find that article here. Now, we'll be focusing on receivers going the other way, the players that fantasy managers should expect to score fewer times in 2023.
Predicting touchdowns is never easy, but there are some utilization trends we can look at to determine if a player has a workload optimal for scoring a high number of touchdowns. Every year produces outliers on both sides of the spectrum that are completely unpredictable, such as Diontae Johnson last year when he scored zero.
Those kinds of outcomes aren't going to stop and they'll continue to surprise us year after year but we can look at target volume, red zone utilization, quarterback play, and average distance of touchdowns scored in the previous year to get a better idea of which players could be at risk of scoring fewer touchdowns this upcoming season. That's what we'll be doing here, identifying five receivers that will score fewer touchdowns in 2023 than they did in 2022. Be sure to look for our next series identifying running backs who are negative and positive touchdown regression candidates.
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Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
This one pains me to say, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Last year, in his first year with the Raiders, Adams led the league in scoring. It’s a distinction he had gotten used to doing in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, but many expected his scoring output to slightly decline with the inferior quarterback, but in the end, that actually didn’t stop him. Although, without some luck, it probably would have. Should have even.
Scoring 14 touchdowns doesn’t seem so absurd when you have 180 total targets (second-most in the NFL) and 22 red zone targets (seventh-most). Not only that, but he had 12 targets inside the 10-yard line, which was tied for the fourth-most. The volume for high touchdown-scoring output is all there.
Despite the high red zone utilization, Adams and Derek Carr struggled to get on the same page in this area of the field for much of the season, a symptom of Carr that he’s never been able to shake. Carr has always struggled inside the red zone and this year was no different. Adams caught just 45.45% of his red zone targets and just 41.67% of his targets inside the 10-yard line. Just four of his 22 red zone targets resulted in touchdowns. You’re probably wondering how he ended up scoring 14 touchdowns then, aren’t you?
It’s a very fair question. Adams’ average scoring play went for 31 yards. He scored more touchdowns from 45 yards or more away from the end zone than he did from just five yards away. He scored four of his 14 touchdowns from three, one, four, and five yards out. The other 10 were all from 25 or further. Five of them were between 45 and 60 yards away.
All in all, it was a very odd year for Adams and how he found the end zone. There’s no reason to expect Adams to score at the rate he did outside of the red zone in 2023. From 2016-2021, his scoring explosion in Green Bay, he scored 69 touchdowns. 56 of them or 81.2% came from the red zone. Last year, just four of his 14 did, or 28.5%. Something has to give.
While on one hand, we can look at his overall target volume and red zone utilization and say he should’ve scored a lot. We can also argue that due to the number of touchdowns that he scored outside the red zone, he should’ve scored far less. So, which one is it? Do they cancel each other out?
The answer is...kind of. We definitely would have expected someone of Adams’ talent level and his overall workload to have found the end zone a good deal, but certainly not in the manner in which he did.
In 2023, we should be expecting major regression in regard to his scoring output outside of the red zone. From 2016-2021, he had six touchdowns that were from 35 yards or further away. In 2022, he had seven such touchdowns. Major, major regression is coming in that department.
We should also be expecting Adams to be more efficient inside the red zone, but will that offset the decline in his long touchdown rate? It’s highly unlikely. While we should totally expect Adams to score 8-12 touchdowns next season, 14 is a number fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
If you read the first installment of this article series, you know that DK Metcalf is one of the biggest positive touchdown regression candidates. And if you recall middle science, you’ll remember Newton’s third law that states for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. In 2022, where Metcalf scored less than he should have, Tyler Lockett scored more.
Lockett scored nine touchdowns last year, which had him tied for sixth in the NFL. However, he ranked 25th in total targets with 117. He also had just eight red zone targets. This was tied for the 88th most. Here are some players with more red zone targets than Lockett had: Rex Burkhead, Parris Campbell, DeAndre Carter, Kalif Raymond, Demarcus Robinson, Josh Oliver, Mecole Hardman, Jordan Akins, Noah Brown, and Marvin Jones. So yeah, there’s that.
Not surprisingly, but he didn’t get too many targets inside the 10-yard line either, finishing with just four. This was tied for the 76th most. Okay, so let’s review. He finished sixth in touchdowns, 25th in targets, 88th in red zone targets, and 76th in targets inside the 10-yard line. He scored six touchdowns from 30 yards away from the end zone and just one from inside the 10-yard line. His average scoring distance was 27.6 yards. Yeah, he’s scoring fewer times in 2023.
While Geno Smith played excellently in 2022, it’s fair to question if it was just a one-off. That’s not to say that he’ll go back to playing as he did when he was the starter for the Jets, but it’s fair to expect some regression in Smith’s overall quality of play. He is, after all, a 32-year-old quarterback who just put together the first good season of his career.
With even a slight decline in quarterback efficiency and his limited red zone utilization, fantasy managers should be expecting Lockett to score just a few fewer times than he did in 2022.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle finds himself in a very similar situation as Tyler Lockett does. Actually, it’s pretty much identical. Just how identical you ask? Well, Waddle also found himself with 117 targets this past year, the same as Lockett, good for 25th-most in the NFL. He also had eight red zone targets, the same as Lockett, good for 88th. Waddle did manage to outdo Lockett in terms of his targets inside the 10-yard line. Compared to Lockett’s four, Waddle had five and ranked 54th in this category.
Fantasy managers who want to take a more optimistic approach could argue that Tua Tagovailoa missed four games in 2022 and Waddle caught exactly zero touchdowns from backup quarterbacks. It’s a fair argument and one I’d certainly be willing to entertain, but that doesn’t change the fact that Waddle’s total number of targets and his red zone utilization does not line up with the number of touchdowns he scored.
Tagovailoa’s injuries certainly had an adverse effect on Waddle’s fantasy scoring, but that doesn’t offset his touchdown scoring profile otherwise. Even Tua himself was just 19th in red zone pass attempts per game. Waddle actually ended up scoring more receiving touchdowns than his teammate, Tyreek Hill even though Hill had 53 more targets, one more red zone target, and one more target inside the 10-yard line.
In 2021, Waddle scored six receiving touchdowns. Every single one of them came from inside the 10-yard line. Last year, just three of his eight came inside the 10-yard line. His other five touchdowns had an average distance of 48 yards.
Tua playing all 17 games and Waddle’s number of targets increasing in 2023 would go a long way to help alleviate some of the concerns in regards to his red zone utilization and the team’s penchant for leaning more on the run game in that area of the field. As a rookie, he had 140 targets compared to just 117 last season. If Waddle is unable to close the target gap between himself and Hill, fantasy managers should absolutely be expecting Waddle to score fewer times this upcoming season.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
I’m going to be honest right up front – I’m not a Brock Purdy believer. That said, he played amazingly and he absolutely, without a doubt, deserves credit for what he accomplished last season. He was nothing short of magnificent in the second half of the season. Still though, not quite a believer.
He was Mr. Irrelevant for a reason and the 49ers happened to have the fourth easiest schedule according to the strength of schedule since 2000. Now coming off a Tommy John-like injury and surgery, I certainly have my reservations.
Purdy had a 7.6% touchdown rate. Patrick Mahomes led the league last year with a 6.3% rate because Purdy didn’t qualify. Mahomes threw 41 touchdowns on 648 pass attempts but had Purdy thrown 648 attempts last year at his 7.6% rate, he would’ve thrown 49 touchdowns. Kind of puts it into perspective, right? Let’s do another one though.
Joe Burrow had a 5.8% touchdown rate. This was the fourth-highest in the NFL. He finished with 35 touchdowns on 606 attempts. Purdy would’ve had 46 touchdowns on the same number of attempts at his 7.6% touchdown rate. One more, I promise. Aaron Rodgers had a 4.8% touchdown rate. This was tied for the 12th-best. He had 26 touchdowns on 542 attempts. Purdy would’ve had 41 touchdowns. Okay, now that we’ve established the very obvious fact Purdy is going to throw touchdowns at a significantly lower clip this upcoming season, assuming he’s 100% healthy, which is somewhat of a question mark right now, we can move on.
Brandon Aiyuk finished with eight touchdowns this past year, which was tied for 11th. However, he finished just 28th in targets with 114, 25th in red zone targets with 15, and 76th in targets inside the 10-yard line with just four.
Among receivers with at least 15 red zone targets, no player scored at a higher clip of their targets than Brandon Aiyuk. He caught six of those red zone targets for touchdowns, a 40% clip. Of the other 20 receivers with at least 15 red zone targets, the only other ones above a 30% touchdown rate were Christian Kirk and Amari Cooper. Aiyuk was the only receiver who turned 40% of his red zone targets into touchdowns.
As if his target volume and red zone utilization didn’t scream regression enough, now we need to also factor in the fact that Aiyuk will likely be less effective with the red zone targets he does receive in 2023. This should come as no surprise considering Purdy’s incredibly high touchdown rate, so we need to be careful not to count this aspect twice.
All in all, however, there’s very little reason to expect Aiyuk to score eight touchdowns again next season without an uptick in targets. This is also a hard sell because Deebo Samuel missed four games and finished with just 94 targets, scoring twice. In fact, Samuel is a very good bet to score more touchdowns this upcoming season, which will likely come at the expense of Aiyuk and Kittle, which is a little foreshadowing to the tight end article due in a couple of days.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
We saved the best one for last. There is maybe no bigger touchdown regression candidate than Jahan Dotson. He finished with seven touchdowns last year, which was tied for 15th in the NFL. He caught a touchdown on 11.5% of his targets. Aiyuk, who is on this list, caught a touchdown on 6.8% of his targets. Lockett was at 7.6%. Of Dotson’s 35 receptions, 20% of them went for touchdowns. This is just absurd. Adams was at 14%, Lockett was at 10.7%, and Waddle was at 10.6%.
Dotson ended up catching two more touchdowns than his teammate Terry McLaurin despite playing in five fewer games and having 59 fewer targets. Despite finishing 15th in touchdowns, Dotson finished 101st in total targets, 104th in red zone targets with seven, and 54th in targets inside the 10-yard line with five.
He scored on four of his five targets inside the 10-yard line and scored on six of his seven red zone targets. That kind of efficiency, especially at just 5’11 and 185 pounds, is not going to continue and shouldn’t be expected to.
Dotson was on pace for 86 targets last year. His targets would need to increase to 115 and he’d have to finish with a 6% touchdown rate to finish with seven touchdowns again in 2023. For reference, DeVonta Smith had a 5.1% touchdown rate, which is only to illustrate that 6% is still a very, very healthy number for a second-year receiver catching passes from Jacoby Brissett, whose career touchdown rate is 3.0% himself.
Let’s also put that number in perspective because of how low it is. The Commanders last year started Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell at quarterback. As a team, they threw 24 touchdowns on 554 attempts. Their team touchdown rate was 4.3%. Brissett’s career average touchdown rate would’ve resulted in 17 touchdowns.
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