X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Yardage Risers - Wide Receiver Regression Candidates

Diontae Johnson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Robert Lorge identifies which receivers will have more yards in 2023 than they did in 2022. Recognizing these players can help fantasy managers target positive values in their drafts. Who are some such receivers this year?

Fantasy managers, as they start drafting, should always be looking for players who, without anything changing, should experience a little positive regression. Guys who, for lack of a better term, were just a tad bit unlucky the previous season. Oftentimes, the market overcompensates on these scenarios, devaluing these players far more than they should. Luckily, we’ve helped you identify some positive touchdown regression candidates in a previous series.

Here you can find the rest of the series on touchdown regression candidates.

For this installment, we’re going to be focusing on receivers who will have more receiving yards than they had last season. Sometimes the market is able to identify these players and price them appropriately, other times, not so much. We’ll be casting a spotlight on a few obvious candidates because their upside is so high, but also a few other underpriced players who offer great value. Please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Since 2000, there have been 249 receivers who finished a season with 140 or more targets. Garrett Wilson ranks 159th in catch rate. He also ranked 157th in yards per target with 7.5. Pretty disappointing stuff, am I right?

It shouldn’t be all that surprising, however. Since 2000, there have been 732 instances where a quarterback has started at least eight games or more in a season. Of those 732, only 130 have had a passer rating below 75. Zach Wilson was one of them. Wilson’s 72.8 rating ranked 633rd. Bottom 15th-percentile. We are talking historically bad. Coincidentally, the highest quarterback rating of all-time is held by none other than Aaron Rodgers, who is the new starting quarterback of the Jets. Even in a down year, Rodgers still had a 91.1 quarterback rating, significantly better than Wilson. I know there are plenty of "look at what Garrett Wilson did when Zach Wilson wasn't the quarterback stats" out there and they're impressive but consider this... Joe Flacco had a 75.2 quarterback rating, and Mike White was at 75.7. They were only slightly better than Wilson, but all three were garbage.

Even if Wilson's target share doesn't improve at all in his second season, which honestly, would be somewhat surprising, we can reasonably expect his catch rate to climb, at the minimum by 5% and it's not out of the question that it increases by 10%, which would bring him to 66.5%.

The quarterback upgrade truly cannot be overstated. The upgrade is massive. It's not out of the question that Wilson's total receiving yardage total increases by over 200 yards. If you're looking for a more in-depth review of what to expect from the new Jets offense and their passing game largely centered around Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson, you can read that here.

 

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Diontae Johnson finished with 147 targets in 2022 and had just 882 yards to show for it. How insanely bad is that? Well, since 2000, there have been 102 receivers to finish a season between 140 and 150 targets. Johnson's 882 yards ranked 101st. His receiving yardage last year was one of the biggest outliers of the past 22 years at the receiver position. In case you were wondering, as I would be if I were reading, the only receiver to finish with fewer yards with a target total between 140 and 150 is Peerless Price with 838 yards.

The narrative around Johnson is that he's nothing but a short-yardage, slot-type receiver, but I don't believe we've seen what Johnson can truly do because of his quarterback play. The late version of Ben Roethlisberger couldn't push the ball downfield and Kenny Pickett has some limitations of his own. Still, last year Johnson had just about a career-worst all the way across the board.

Year Yard Per Route Run Yards Per Target
Yards Per Reception
2020 1.78 6.4 10.5
2021 1.95 6.9 10.9
2022 1.58 6.0 10.3

Like Wilson, Johnson endured terrible quarterback play. Out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Kenny Pickett finished 32nd in yards per attempt and 32nd in quarterback rating with 76.7. Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting Pickett to light the world on fire. They shouldn't even be expecting Pickett to be league average, but is it too much to ask to just not be in the conversation for worst in the league? Any kind of quarterback improvement, which is reasonable to expect in Pickett's second season, will go a long way to Johnson improving on his 2022 season.

He had catch rates of 61.1% in 2020, 63.3% in 2021, and just 58.5% this past season. Interestingly, his catchable target rate in 2022 was the highest it's been in the last three seasons. He had an 85.0% catchable target rate according to PlayerProfiler. In 2021, that number was 77.5%, and in 2020 it was 75.0%. That shows that Johnson is a good candidate for some regression in 2023.

He's averaged 153 targets over the past three seasons and has not had a season below 140 since his rookie season. With that kind of volume, he's a great back to return to the century club. Johnson is one of my favorite fantasy football values right now.

 

Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys

This one might seem like a bit of a cop-out since Brandin Cooks missed four games last season, but even if he hadn't and just maintained his per-game average from last year over the full 17 games, he'd still be an excellent candidate for this article. Eliminating his rookie season, there had been only one season since 2015 that he averaged fewer than 65 yards per game. That was in 2019 when he missed multiple games with concussions and left several other contests early. For the record, he averaged just 53.8 yards per game last year. So, what happened?

To put it plainly, Davis Mills happened. He was passable in 2021, but the wheels completely came off this past season. In Cooks’ right prior seasons, he had six years with a catch rate higher than 65.0%. One of the years he failed to reach this number was his concussion-filled 2019 season. Last year, his catch rate was at 61.3%, slightly over four percentage points lower than his career average.

The difference between Dak Prescott and Mills is considerable as is the difference in the Dallas and Houston passing attack. Dallas had 392 more passing yards and 8 more passing touchdowns in 2022 and that was with Prescott missing five games.

If you look at Dallas, 2021 vs Houston, 2022 the difference becomes almost unbelievable. Now we’re talking about a difference of 1,456 passing yards and 20 (!!!) passing touchdowns. There’s more passing volume in Dallas and the efficiency difference is off the charts.

Don’t be alarmed about Cooks’ being the No. 2 to CeeDee Lamb either. With Dalton Schultz moving onto Houston, the Dallas offense desperately needs a secondary weapon in the passing game and that’ll be Cooks.

The extra attention Lamb will command should help give Cooks plenty of single coverage looks. He’s a great bet to not only finish with more yards in 2023, but his per-game average will certainly climb as well. If you’d like to read a more in-depth outlook about what to expect from Cooks in Dallas, you can find that here.

 

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave missed two games last year and played in another two games where his snap share was below 60%. A full 17-game season is going to result in a lot more than 119 targets and that’s not even factoring in the year-two growth he’ll make as a player. However, arguing a player who will rack up more yards just because they’ll be healthy is, well, sort of weak. Luckily, there are a lot more reasons than the obvious ones I already touched on above.

According to Playerprofiler, Olave had 845 unrealized air yards last year, which was the fifth-most among receivers. Andy Dalton, his 2022 quarterback, had a deep ball completion percentage of just 28.2%. This ranked 30th among qualifying quarterbacks. Pretty, pretty bad, and for someone like Olave, whose average depth of target was 14.0 (ninth-highest among receivers) that left an awful lot of yards on the field.

Based on the numbers above, it shouldn’t be surprising then to find out that only 75.6% of his targets were deemed catchable. This ranked just 53rd among receivers. Don’t get me wrong, Dalton was a serviceable quarterback last year and in a lot of aspects did some good things, but he struggled mightily on throws downfield.

Over Derek Carr’s last five seasons, his deep ball completion percentage is 38.4%. Because of the volatility of these targets, I looked at his last five years to get a better idea of the kind of deep ball thrower he is. Clearly, he’s been much better than Dalton was last year.

It’s not just the efficiency either - although that is a big part - it’s the volume. Over the past five years, Carr has averaged 64 deep ball attempts per season. Dalton was at 39 in 2022.

Assuming Olave stays in a similar role to the one he had in 2022, Carr will be more willing to push the ball downfield, which will increase his targets. He’ll also receive more catchable targets, especially on his deeper targets. Put it all together and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Olave finish with 200-300 more yards in 2023. If you’re looking for a more in-depth read as to what to expect from Carr and Olave this year in New Orleans, you can read that here.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contract Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Brock Bowers

Officially Questionable for Monday Night
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Players Roster Kyle Busch At Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. too Risky to Consider Rostering At Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Consistent Enough to Advance in Playoffs, but Probably Won't Factor for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12 but Might Be Able to Do It
Ross Chastain

Has Never Led at Bristol, but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice for Place Differential Points
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
Xavier Worthy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Austin Ekeler

Suffers Torn Achilles
Quinshon Judkins

Expected to Play Against Ravens
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Kyle Larson

Can Kyle Larson Dominate at Bristol Again?
Denny Hamlin

One of the Best at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

All Eyes on Ryan Blaney at Bristol
Chase Briscoe

Whiffs in Qualifying, Will Start 31st in Bristol Night Race
Ty Gibbs

Could Contend at Bristol
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RapSheet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Expected to Be Lead Back Moving Forward
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out Against Saints
Jauan Jennings

Given Questionable Tag for Week 2
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Dallas Goedert

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jayden Reed

Fractures Collarbone, Headed for Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler

Commanders Fear Austin Ekeler Tore his Achilles
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Austin Ekeler

Injured, Carried Off Field with Non-Contact Injury
Jayden Reed

Ruled Out with Shoulder Injury
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Insider Expects NFL to "Come Down Heavy" on a Quinshon Judkins Suspension
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Return on TNF With Shoulder Injury
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP