RADIO
Touchdowns can be a vital part of a player’s fantasy football scoring or they can be a thorn in their side. Unfortunately, touchdowns continue to be one of the more difficult statistics to predict year in and year out. Instead, we project anticipated volume and hope the touchdowns will follow. Certainly, looking at a team’s overall offensive talent will help determine how many opportunities any given player will have, but even that has been known to play tricks on us.
It can be incredibly frustrating rostering a player who gets chance after chance but fails to regularly find the end zone. Three to five touchdowns at the end of the season can be the difference between a player leaving a sour taste in your mouth or someone you can’t wait to draft again next season. It probably shouldn’t be like that, but touchdowns are worth the most points and it’s hard to have a week-winning fantasy score without finding the end zone at least once.
Every year there are a handful of outliers on both sides of the spectrum – guys who scored far too less and guys who overachieved finding pay dirt – and here, we’re going to be looking at a few guys from both sides of the aisle. In the first installment of this touchdown regression candidate series, we’ll be looking at five wide receivers fantasy managers should expect to score more touchdowns in 2023 than they did in 2022. In the following days, we’ll be covering which receivers will score fewer touchdowns, as well as tackling the running back and tight end positions, as well. Let’s get started.
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Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
This one should be no surprise. Diontae Johnson is the absolute poster boy for touchdown regression. It is not a stretch to say that Johnson’s 2022 season was the biggest anomaly in NFL History. Guys do not have 147 targets (seventh-most in the NFL) and 16 red zone targets (18th-most) and not score a touchdown. This does not happen.
The most targets by a player without scoring a touchdown was 109 back in 1996 by Michael Timpson, which ranked 33rd-most that year. Johnson had 38 more than that. Timpson played in 15 games that year, so 7.2 targets per game. Timpson would’ve needed to play 21 more quarters of football before he reached Johnson’s 2022 target total. Timpson also had just nine red zone targets that year, 47th-most. Timpson would’ve needed to play 12 (!!!) more games to reach Johnson’s 16 red zone targets.
In 2020, Johnson finished with 144 targets and 10 red zone targets. He scored seven times that year. He finished with 169 targets and 22 red zone targets in 2021 and found the end zone eight times. Last year, I just want to reiterate this he had 147 targets with 16 red zone targets and zero touchdowns. Zilch. Nada.
Last year, he scored 180 full-PPR points and averaged 10.6 PPG. Due to that, he’s ranked right around the WR3/4 spot in drafts, which is roughly in the sixth round. If we give Johnson’s 2021 stat line just five more touchdowns and add 30 points to his 180-point total, we get to 210 and a 12.4 PPG average, which would’ve been WR31. If we give him seven touchdowns, he moves up to WR27.
There is no better bet than Johnson to score more touchdowns in 2023 than he did last year. It wasn’t that long ago when Johnson was an incredibly valuable fantasy football asset – he was the WR9 in 2022 and WR22 in 2021. Don’t let Kenny Pickett worry you. Or Chase Claypool. Or Allen Robinson. At his current price tag, there’s a ton of room for upside and it’s quite difficult to see where he’d be a net negative at his current cost.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
This one might come as a surprise to you, but it really shouldn’t. Not when we look at the numbers from 2022. While many believe that Courtland Sutton had a down season, that really isn’t the case. He finished with 109 targets, 64 receptions, 829 yards, and two touchdowns in 15 games. If we’re being honest though, it was more like 14 games because in one game he played just 40% of the snaps before leaving with an injury. He had just a single target that he didn’t catch. If we take his stat line by 14 games instead of 15, we find that he was on pace for 132 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,006 yards. That’s despite abysmal quarterback play and being on the 32nd-ranked NFL offense. Really not that bad, all things considered, am I right?
We’re here to talk specifically about Sutton’s touchdown potential in 2023. With the trade for head coach Sean Payton, fantasy managers should be expecting an improved offense this year. Really, we should have been expecting that even if Nathaniel Hackett was still in town just because no offense is that bad in consecutive years. At the very least, it would be very rare. While I don’t expect the Broncos to be a top-12 offense, it’s not out of the question for them to hover around the 18-22 range, which is quite the climb from where they were last year – dead last.
Fantasy managers also shouldn’t expect Russell Wilson to get back to the way he played in Seattle, but there’s a lot of room between what we saw in 2022 and his level of play in Seattle. He had a 3.3% touchdown rate last year. He hasn’t had a season under a 6.0% touchdown rate since 2016. Prior to 2022, he had just two seasons with a touchdown rate under 6.0% in his entire 10-year career up to that point.
His play in 2022 fell off a cliff. Now maybe you believe that’s it for Russell Wilson and he's finished. I’m not one of those people. Again, I don’t expect him to get back to his prime-Seattle years, but I expect a much better version than what we saw in 2022. He completed just 60.5% of his passes last year. In Seattle, he had just one season with a completion percentage lower than 63.0%. His QB Rating was 84.4. From 2012-2021, he had just two seasons with a QB rating below 100 and neither of them dipped below 92.5. Again, there is a ton of room between his Seattle play and his 2022 play and I expect Wilson ends up somewhere in the middle, which is a major boost to Sutton’s 2023 value and his touchdown potential this season.
Now, let’s get back specifically to Sutton. He finished 30th in the NFL in targets but finished tied for 111th in touchdowns. He was also tied for 45th in red zone targets with 12 and tied for 43rd in targets inside the 10-yard line with six. This is a workload that should’ve resulted in 4-6 more touchdowns.
He finished with a 10.6 full-PPR PPG average, but if we eliminate his injury-shortened game, his average jumps to 11.3. If we give him four more touchdowns with and without that injury-shortened game included, his PPG average would rise to 12.2 or 13.1, respectively. If we give him six more touchdowns, it would rise to 13.0 or 13.9, respectively. This makes Sutton one of the better values to be had early on. He currently has an ADP hovering around the seventh round and is being drafted around WR45. He’s a great value pick at this cost.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
We’re going to work off the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is a New York Jet. My sanity demands it. Last year, the Jets’ quarterbacks threw 15 total touchdowns. They had a touchdown rate of just 2.4%. Remember how we all loved Mike White for Garrett Wilson last year? Well, White’s touchdown rate was just 1.7%. Granted, that was over just a four-game sample size and he still was an amazing improvement to Zach Wilson, but White struggled mightily getting the ball into the end zone. All the Jets’ quarterbacks did, but White did the most. Wilson had a 2.5% touchdown rate and Joe Flacco was at 2.6%.
Funny story, a true story… you could add up White’s, Flacco’s, and Wilson’s touchdown rate and it would be less than Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown rate in 2021. For as down of a season as Rodgers had last year, you could add Flacco and White’s touchdown rate and it would still be less than Rodgers.
Rodgers has not had a touchdown rate worse than 4.2% since he became the starter in Green Bay. His career average is 6.2%. In 2022, he was at 4.8%, and in 2019, he was at 4.6%. Those were his two most recent down seasons. If we take Rodgers’ worst touchdown rate of his career, 4.2%, and use the Jets’ total pass attempts from last year, he would’ve added 11 more touchdowns. If we use his 2022 rate of 4.8%, he would’ve added 15. If we use his career average of 6.2%, he would’ve added 24. I double-checked the math too because that sounds insane.
Wilson finished his rookie season with 147 targets, tied with Diontae Johnson for the seventh-most in the NFL. He was also 12th in red zone targets with 19 and ninth in targets inside the 10-yard line with 10 such targets. That resulted in just four touchdowns, which was tied for 46th. If we eliminate quarterback play, based on his target volume we would’ve expected Wilson to finish in the top 10 for touchdowns, meaning at least nine or more. Instead, he scored four times.
He finished as the WR30 in full-PPR PPG, but with five more touchdowns added to his total, he would’ve jumped all the way up to 14.4, which would’ve been good for a WR18 finish in 2022. That doesn’t factor in the improvement Wilson is in store for in other areas of the field with Rodgers behind center. He has legit WR1 upside in 2023 with the expected quarterback upgrade.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
If Diontae Johnson did not exist, DK Metcalf would be this year’s poster boy for positive touchdown regression. Geno Smith threw for 30 touchdowns, fourth-most in the NFL, and had a 5.2% touchdown rate, which was seventh-best. Metcalf finished with the 12th-most targets at 141, the third-most red zone targets with 27, and the ninth-most targets inside the 10-yard line with 10. So, let’s see. Good quarterback play? Check. A high number of team passing touchdowns? Check. A ton of targets? Check. Heavy red zone utilization? Check. Fantastic. What are we looking at? Like, 10 touchdowns? 12? More? Nope. Fantasy managers received six.
If I told you that Smith would throw for 30 touchdowns, Metcalf would have 141 targets with 27 red zone targets, how many touchdowns would you have guessed he’d have scored? At a minimum, we’re talking at least 10, but realistically, 12 seems more than fair all things considered, but nope, we got six.
Of his 27 red zone targets, Metcalf caught just eight of them – a disappointing catch rate of just 29.6%. Among the top 50 players in red zone targets, his red zone catch rate was the second-worst. That “winner” is actually Garrett Wilson with a 26.3% catch rate. Metcalf and Wilson were the only two players in the top 50 of red zone targets to have a catch rate worse than 30%. If you’re wondering who had the third-worst catch rate, Courtland Sutton at 33%. Noticing a trend?
Players that have seen 14+ end zone targets...
Two years in a row:
🔸Justin Jefferson
🔸Stefon Diggs
🔸Ja'Marr Chase
🔸DK MetcalfThree years in a row:
🔸DK MetcalfFour years in a row:
🔸DK MetcalfDK Metcalf just turned 25 in December.
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) February 25, 2023
With Metcalf’s 6’4 and 235-pound frame and his career 61.3% catch rate, seeing his red zone catch rate at just 26.3% is certainly an outlier that fantasy managers want to capitalize on. He finished as the WR25 in full-PPR PPG, but if we give him four more touchdowns, to at least get to double-digits, he would’ve finished as the WR17. If we give him six more touchdowns, he would jump to 15.4 PPG and a WR12 finish.
From 2019-2021, Metcalf earned a total of 358 targets. He scored 29 touchdowns over that time period, which results in an 8.1% touchdown rate. He finished with a 4.2% touchdown rate last year. In 2020 and 2021, he finished with 129 targets in both seasons and ended with 10 and 12 touchdowns, respectively. He’s not currently priced as a WR1, but he absolutely has that kind of potential, making him one of the better early-season prices this year.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Drake London was held back during his rookie season by an offensive system that was hyper-focused on the running game. They finished 31st in pass attempts and passing yards compared to 1st and 3rd in rush attempts and rushing yards, respectively. The Atlanta quarterbacks combined for just 17 passing touchdowns, but did have an average touchdown rate of 4.1%
While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a major deviation from their 2022 game plan, a slight increase in their overall pass attempts would be reasonable to expect considering just how pass-adverse they were last year, averaging just 24.4 pass attempts per game. Even if they increase that to 27-28 per game, that would be a major boon to London’s value in 2023 and his touchdown expectancy this upcoming season.
Even with the team’s poor passing performance last season, we would have expected the former Trojan to find the end zone more than four times. He finished 27th in total targets with 117. His 16 red zone targets were tied for 18th and his nine targets inside the 10-yard line were tied for 15th. He caught just 50% of his red zone targets and just 33.3% of his targets inside the 10-yard line. Considering London’s size and his penchant for contested catches in college, fantasy managers should be expecting an improvement in both categories this upcoming season.
Drake London is currently being drafted as the WR25, despite finishing as the WR43 last year in full-PPR PPG. Even if we give London three more touchdowns in his 2022 season, his PPG average would increase to 11.5 and he would’ve finished as the WR36. London needs a lot more things to go right for him other than a positive touchdown regression to pay off at his current ADP.
I’d like to say we should be expecting improvement from the quarterback position, but with the third-round, second-year player, Desmond Ridder and Nicke" data-id="17179">Taylor Heinicke expected to be the primary quarterbacks this season, that’s far from a given. These two signal-callers not only will keep the team’s passing efficiency below average, but also the team’s passing volume. Because of this, it’s possible London may find himself on this very same list again next season, although we certainly hope not.
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