Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Risers - Positive Target Volume Regression Candidates

May 12, 2023

Rob Lorge identifies which receivers will have more targets in 2023 than they did in 2022. Recognizing these players can help fantasy managers target positive values in their drafts. Who are some such receivers this year?

Fantasy managers, as they start drafting, should always be looking for players who, without anything changing, should experience a little positive regression. Guys who, for lack of a better term, were just a tad bit unlucky the previous season. Oftentimes, the market overcompensates on these scenarios, devaluing these players far more than they should. Luckily, we’ve helped you identify some positive and negative touchdown and yardage regression candidates in a previous series.

Here you can find the rest of our positive and negative regression candidate series.

• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Positive & Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates - TE
• Negative Yardage Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Yardage Regression Candidate – WR

For this installment, we’re going to be focusing on receivers who will have more targets than they had last season. Sometimes the market is able to identify these players and price them appropriately. Other times, not so much. We’ll be casting a spotlight on a few obvious candidates because their upside is so high, but also a few other underpriced players who offer great value. Please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

Jerry Jeudy is one of my favorite receivers this offseason and I've tried to hammer that home in several earlier articles including, Early Wide Receiver Breakouts for 2023 Fantasy Football and 2023 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – WR Edition. If you're not on board, there's still plenty of time. If you're of the mind that Jeudy has been a bust, I beg of you, reconsider.

In his rookie season, he finished with 113 targets, 52 receptions, and 856 yards. He had a very impressive 21.2% target share. His quarterback play, however, held him back. Drew Lock that year was one of the worst in the NFL. Jeudy finished the year with 1,536 air yards, which was the sixth most in the NFL. Unfortunately, he also had 965 unrealized air yards, which ranked second. All in all, however, it was a very promising rookie season and one, if he had just had average quarterback play, likely would've smashed.

His sophomore season was lost due to a high-sprained ankle that nagged him all year. He finished with just 10 games played, had a snap share of over 75% in just one contest, and four games with a 60% snap share or less. Looking at his 2022 season, fantasy managers may be reluctant to say that he broke out, but I'd argue you should reconsider.

Yes, injuries were once again a bit of a concern, and if you'd like to knock him for that, I can't really stop you, however, I'd implore you to look at the games where he played a full snap share. He appeared in 15 games but played on fewer than 36% of the snaps in three contests. If we eliminate these injury-shortened games in Weeks 2, 10, and 13, we can begin to see the breakout.

When the 2022 season was finished, Jeudy had just 100 targets and a target share of just 20.8%. However, in his 12 healthy games, he was on pace for 131 targets. In those 12 games, he averaged 7.7 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 74.7 yards per game. During this time span, he sported a 23.4% target share and averaged 16 full-PPR PPG.

#Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is the player receiver-needy teams should target.

89th percentile in YAC/reception.

89th percentile in YPRR.

73rd percentile in separation % vs. single coverage.

(data via @PFF)

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) March 13, 2023

And folks, he was able to accomplish that despite the abysmal quarterback play and on the league's worst offense with a head coach who was fired after one season. Once you add in the renowned offensive coach, Sean Payton, it's fair to expect Jeudy and the entire Denver offense to get a boost.

Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

I know the Green Bay Packers selected three pass-catchers in rounds two and three of the 2023 NFL Draft, which included second-rounders, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. That's all fine and dandy, but Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are going to lead this team in targets in 2023. While Watson is an easy target for this list considering how he closed his rookie season, Doubs finds himself in a Jeudy-like situation, where his output is being hidden a bit due to several injury-shortened games. Let's first focus on Watson before we shift our attention to Doubs.

The table above are Watson's splits from the first half of the 2022 season and the second half of the season. They could not be any different. He finished the 2022 season with 66 targets. However, if he continues to operate in 2023 with a 6.6 target per game average, he'd finish with 112 targets. For our 2023 expectations, that should be considered the floor.

There are three numbers that stand out and that fantasy managers need to be cognizant of. The first two are his snaps per game and his routes run per game. Despite his extraordinary play in the second half of the season, the Packers coaching staff still hadn't totally unleashed him. He was running a route on just under 70% of the Packers' passing plays. He was on the field for just 77.2% of their plays. Fantasy managers should expect both those numbers to be around 90% in 2023 and those added opportunities are going to lead to a lot more targets. How do we know this? Because of his ridiculously high 29% target per route run rate. It shouldn't be out of the question that Watson finishes with 130 targets.

Now, let's talk about Romeo Doubs. He finished with 67 targets after playing in 13 games as a rookie. This equals 5.15 targets per game. However, he played fewer than 50% of the snaps in five games. Almost all of those games came late in the season after he suffered a high-ankle sprain and was quite limited even after returning.

If we look at just the games where Doubs wasn't limited by injury, he averaged 6.4 targets per game and sported an 18.0% target share. During that time, he ran a route on 73.8% of the routes and had a 22.0% target per route run. For a rookie, his ability to earn targets was impressive and with his experience in the Packers' system, there's no reason to think he won't operate as the team's No. 2 receiver for the 2023 season.

The Packers threw the ball 563 times last year. If Doubs were to have an 18% target share in 2023 on that team passing volume, he'd finish with 101 targets. That target volume doesn't put him in the WR2 range and truthfully, he'll struggle to get into the WR3 range, but it's hard not to see that Doubs is positioned well to have more targets than 2022.

Treylon Burks, Tennesee Titans

Treylon Burks. is another easy addition to this list. For starters, he played in just 11 games last year as a rookie and played on just 59.4% of the snaps in those contests. He had 54 targets as a rookie and the sheer increase in playing time will result in a large spike in targets, but what would that look like?

Last year, Burks had a target per route run average of 24.0%. Unfortunately, he ran a route just 63.2% of the time. Considering the team cut veteran Robert Woods and didn't add a receiver in free agency and only first added to this position in the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Burks’ role is going to increase substantially.

Right now, the No. 2 receiver is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and the No. 3 receiver is Kyle Phillips. Westbrook-Ikhine was not drafted and Phillips was a third-round pick. By draft capital alone, Burks should be regarded as the clear No. 1 receiver for the 2023 season.

Assuming his snap share and route run percentage jump to 90% like we should expect considering the lack of talent in the Titans receiver room, Burks is going to finish with a lot more target opportunity. The Titans had 456 pass attempts last season and if Burks runs a route 90%, he would run 410 routes. If he maintains his 24% target per route run average, he'd finish with 98 targets. If he increases that rate to 26%, he'd have 107 targets, which is right where AJ Brown landed the last two years he was in Tennessee.

Making The Case for Treylon Burks

✅ 4-Star Recruit
✅ College-Producer
✅ Early-Breakout
✅ Early-Declare
✅ Freak-Athlete
✅ RD1 Pick
✅ Underrated Rookie Season
✅ Injury-Deflated Outlook
✅ Situational Discount

[A THREAD]

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) April 23, 2023

There's a lot to like about Treylon Burks as indicated in the tweet thread above and while he's guaranteed to have more targets than last year with a much larger target share, it's still up in the air if Tennessee will have enough team passing volume that will allow Burks to be an impact fantasy player this upcoming fantasy football season.

Skyy Moore & Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs

I know how everyone likely feels about these two players, especially Kadarius Toney, but chances are, one of these two players is going to be busy this upcoming season. Rookie Rashee Rice will also be in the running to claim the prize of becoming Patrick Mahomes' No. 2 target behind Kelce and he was listed as one of the biggest draft day winners that you can read about here.

Both players had very minimal opportunities last year, but that doesn't mean they weren't efficient or productive with the chances they did have. Considering the depth chart in Kansas City and what the team was playing for, a Super Bowl Championship, it's not overly surprising neither player was able to command a large role in year one with the team. Kansas City had signed veteran receivers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster to operate as the team's starting receivers. They also had holdover, now New York Jet, Mecole Hardman on the roster, as well. That always put Moore in a tough position to produce in year one. As for Toney, he was acquired before the trade deadline and was asked to learn a new playbook with limited practice time. Both players will get more opportunities in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes: We're excited for Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney to expand their roles. https://t.co/E64JcWAflI

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 19, 2023

If we, however, look at what Moore and Toney did on the field with their limited chances, there's some reason for optimism. Moore finished his rookie season with a 1.63-yard per route run average and a 22.0% target per route run. Toney, on the other hand, was even more productive, having produced a 2.76-yard per route run average and a 27.0% target per route run. We've certainly been down this route before with Toney, so I understand being more skeptical about him. Moore, however, was just a rookie last year and should surely get the benefit of the doubt given his second-round status and the team's stable of veteran receivers.

The team still employs MVS, but Smith-Schuster and Hardman have since moved on to new teams. MVS has never had a season with a 15% target share, 85 targets, 45 receptions, or 700 yards. Having never hit any of those four criteria in any one of his five seasons, fantasy managers can rest assured MVS will not be the No. 2 receiver this season. Rather, it'll be Moore, Toney, or their second-round rookie.

Moore played on just 31.5% of the team's snaps and Toney was at just 23.2% in the seven games he was with the club. It shouldn't be surprising if both players flirt with a 65% snap share, which is going to significantly increase the number of routes they run. They both boasted a very solid target per route run, which gives fantasy managers hope that an increased route share will go hand and hand with an increase in target volume.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

After a career season in 2021, the regression train found Deebo Samuel and hit him, hard. While it would be unwise to expect a repeat of that incredible 2021 season, fantasy managers should be expecting the regression pendulum to swing back a bit the other way.

He missed four games last year, but also had one game where he played one contest where he played on just 40% of the snaps. His playing time was lower last year in general across the board. Even in the games he was active, he played just 77% of the snaps. However, the numbers from last year indicate Samuel largely operated as the team's No. 1 receiver. Below is a table using only the games where all three players – Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel all played in at least 50% of the team's snaps – and as you can see, they certainly favor Deebo.

Now, let's look at the games where all three players played in at least 50% of the snaps, but where Brocky Purdy, the likely 2023 starter was behind center. This does include two playoff games, their first playoff game vs Seattle and the second game vs Dallas. The following sample does only include four games, which is a rather small sample, which isn't ideal, but the results are pretty telling.

Regardless of who was under center, Samuel was the team's No. 1 receiver. Purdy especially favored Samuel and that's evident from the table above. His target share is 5.2 percentage points higher than Aiyuk and 10.5 percentage points higher than Kittle. Samuel looks like he's in a great position for a big bounceback season and that'll come as a result of an increase in targets for the 2023 fantasy football season.

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