RADIO
Last week’s write-up was fairly solid, as Travis Kelce and CeeDee Lamb each came away with huge games. However, Dak Prescott (poor play) and Patrick Mahomes (leg injury) both underperformed as part of those stacks.
Championship Sunday features two games with plenty of star power. In the NFC, the Eagles should be considered the favorite with the QB talent advantage and arguably the deeper roster. In the AFC, Cincinnati might have the deeper roster, but they certainly don’t have the QB advantage (in my humble opinion). Let’s dig into these matchups from a DFS standpoint.
**This is my last write-up of the NFL season. It will feature my preferred stack recommendation for all four teams this weekend on DraftKings.**
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Chiefs Stack
Patrick Mahomes ($7600) + Travis Kelce ($7800)
Lou Anarumo’s defense has been stout all season, allowing just 18.9 points per game in the regular season and 13.5 through two games of the postseason. But their next challenge will be slowing down the Chiefs, an offensive juggernaut that paced the league with 29.2 points per contest.
Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury last weekend looked very hurtful, but he returned to the game in the second quarter and willed his team to victory. After a full week of rehab and rest, the one-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback will look to make his third appearance in the big game with a strong performance in Sunday’s AFC Championship. If that happens, it will likely be the result of a huge outing between him and his favorite target, Travis Kelce.
The Bengals have struggled containing Kelce’s position all year, having yielded the fifth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and the ninth-most yards to TEs (Pro Football Reference). Since Mahomes was inserted as the Chiefs’ starting QB in 2018, here are Kelce’s postseason statistics across 12 games: 97 catches on 121 targets with 13 touchdowns. That’s an insane 80.1% catch rate.
Fresh off a 17-target, 14-catch, two-TD outing in the Divisional Round, it’s hard to get away from Kelce on DraftKings. Continue to trust this dynamic duo in DFS.
Preferred bring-back: Tee Higgins ($5400)
Leverage piece: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4700)
The only viable strategy for slowing Kelce is providing extra attention in the form of double teams in the secondary. If that scenario plays out, it could be JuJu Smith-Schuster who benefits most. MVS stinks, Kadarius Toney isn’t playing enough, and Justin Watson is Justin Watson. Though JuJu hasn’t popped up for a nice fantasy performance in quite some time (5.7 or less DK points in four straight), he showed a ceiling at various times this season.
Smith-Schuster has eight games with at least eight targets this year. He also posted five games with at least 17 DraftKings points. Extra defensive attention paid to Kelce could open up the former Steeler for a larger piece of the volume pie.
Bengals Stack
Joe Burrow ($6800) + Ja'Marr Chase ($7600) AND/OR Tee Higgins ($5400)
There were a lot of common themes throughout the NFL DFS season in terms of spots to attack: Detroit’s defense overall, Cleveland’s run defense, Houston’s defense overall, Arizona’s defense against tight ends, etc. Another one that usually popped up often was the Kansas City defense against wide receivers. When a team scores an inordinate amount of points, it results in shootouts/ceiling performances for players on the opposite side if they can keep up.
Well, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati are built to keep up, with arguably the league’s best passing attack. The Chiefs have surrendered the fourth-most DK points per game to QBs, the most touchdown passes (33), and the fifth-most completions (Pro Football Reference). In his last three games against Kansas City, Ja’Marr Chase has posted 11/266/3, 9/97/0, and 6/54/1 stat lines.
At the appetizing price tag of $5400, Tee Higgins really sticks out this weekend. With six games of 16 or more DraftKings points this year, including performances of 29.8, 28.4, 27.4, and 26.8, his ceiling is arguably as high as the aforementioned Chase. His last three stat lines against K.C. are 3/62/0, 3/35/1, and 6/103/0.
Preferred bring-back: Travis Kelce ($7800)
Leverage piece: Tyler Boyd ($3800)
With QB production allowed comes WR production as well. The Chiefs have yielded the seventh-most DK points to WRs (37.3). Tyler Boyd is always an intriguing leverage option when the field is excited to play Chase and Higgins. The seventh-year receiver has 23- and 32-DK-point games under his belt this year. If you’re looking to zig while others zag, Boyd is a great leverage play.
Eagles Stack
Jalen Hurts ($7200) + A.J. Brown ($7000)
Boasting one of the more dominant rushing attacks in football, the Eagles imposed their will over and over on the ground each week. Well, it’s hard to envision a scenario where that happens this weekend against San Francisco, the fourth-best-graded run defense according to PFF. Here are the rushing stats allowed by the Niners over the last five games:
Cowboys — 76 yards, 3.5 YPC
Seahawks — 104 yards, 4.2 YPC
Cardinals — 61 yards, 3.1 YPC
Raiders — 135 yards, 4.2 YPC
Commanders — 79 yards, 2.4 YPC
Long story short, the Eagles will need to throw to win this contest. CeeDee Lamb just roughed up the 49ers last week for 10 catches and 117 yards. I referenced other receivers’ success against the Niners in last week’s column. A.J. Brown is my pick to succeed here, as outside receivers have had their way against San Fran’s secondary.
With as high of a ceiling as any receiver on the Conference Championship slate, Brown needs to be taken seriously at his $7000 price tag. He topped 19 DK points in seven contests this year, and he showed a ceiling as high as 42.6 (Week 8). AJB should have his way here.
Rushing upside is built into Jalen Hurts’ game, but he could struggle to rack up rushing yards against the Niners’ stout front; they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to signal-callers and just two rushing touchdowns. However, they have allowed the 11th-most passing yards, further enhancing the outlook for the Hurts-Brown connection.
Preferred bring-back: Deebo Samuel ($5700)
Leverage piece: Quez Watkins ($3100)
Strictly a dart throw recommendation here, Quez Watkins is the type of play that few will click — but has the upside to maybe win you the slate at low ownership. All of the ownership will go to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, but a 5/40/1 type of fantasy line would get it done for Watkins at just $3100.
49ers Stack
Brock Purdy ($6300) + Deebo Samuel ($5700)
I’ve been a big proponent of the Brock Purdy-George Kittle connection in recent weeks. I decided to switch it up this week and tout Deebo Samuel instead. Kyle Shanahan’s most versatile playmaker, Deebo should be in line for extra touches in this spot with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell nursing different injuries.
Samuel has toted the rock seven times combined over the first two playoff games. I would expect him to see 4-5 carries to get him more involved. The price is also very attractive ($5700) for a player whose upside is huge (as we saw all of last year). Additionally, Samuel gets moved all around the formation, and he has gone into the slot for 16.3% of his snaps — which will give him a chance to escape the clutches of Philly’s superb outside cornerbacks.
Philadelphia’s outside coverage is well-documented, as both James Bradberry and Darius Slay were graded as top-12 coverage cornerbacks by PFF this year. With Samuel’s ability to line up all over the field, he could be schemed short-area touches to mitigate the coverage abilities of the aforementioned cornerback duo.
Brock Purdy struggled against Dallas last week (just 9.36 DK points), but he was rock solid prior to that. He amassed at least 16 DK points in every start prior to last week. Philly’s another stiff defensive test, so we’ll see how it shakes out.
Preferred bring-back: A.J. Brown ($7000)
Leverage piece: George Kittle ($5200)
George Kittle has at least one 20+ yard catch in 4-of-7 games with Purdy as the starter. The outside coverage of Philly should funnel more looks to the talented playmaking tight end. With his two best DK-point outings coming with Purdy under center, it’s logical to think Kittle will remain a focal point.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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