RADIO
Dynasty fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
What's up, RotoBallers? I'm Jorden Hill and I have been discussing trade targets in a weekly column all season for redraft formats. Now that deadlines have passed in the vast majority of leagues, we will transition over to dynasty fantasy football!
My goal is to highlight some players that could be worth acquiring or trading away for both contending and rebuilding rosters. Obviously, many more factors come into play in dynasty, including a player's age, contract, and perceived value on the trade market. I will be sure to consider all of these details when categorizing buys and sells.
Whether or not your dynasty league enforces a trade deadline, I'd like to think my suggestions will have merit in the rapidly-approaching offseason as well, so there's hopefully a little something here for everyone.
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!Without further ado, let's start by taking a look at some undervalued assets.
Players to Target in Trades for Dynasty Fantasy Football
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
This is clearly a recommendation aimed toward contending rosters, but Keenan Allen is criminally underrated for a player averaging double-digit targets in healthy games this season. Allen is 30-years-old, so I could suggest him as someone to trade away on non-playoff teams, but the value you'd be getting in return may not be worth it.
Hamstring injuries plagued Allen for the first 10 weeks of the season, but he's been the favorite target of Justin Herbert since his return and is averaging almost 14 half-PPR fantasy points per contest. Over the past five weeks, he's outproduced Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb.
WR Target Leaders and their Half PPR PPG since Week 11.
58 - Justin Jefferson 19.4
52 - Davante Adams 17.5
52 - Keenan Allen 13.8
49 - Amon-Ra St Brown 17.2
46 - Tyreek Hill 17.7
46 - Amari Cooper 11.8
45 - AJ Brown 16.5
43 - Stefon Diggs 12.5
43 - Chris Godwin 14.9— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) December 20, 2022
I like to use KeepTradeCut as a resource as their dynasty rankings are community-sourced. The player values listed are not determined by a fantasy analyst, but rather by polling visitors of the site. This doesn't mean these rankings should be taken as gospel, but they can be helpful when analyzing the dynasty trade market. On KeepTradeCut, Allen is valued as the WR41. Again, it's obvious that his age and injury concerns are taken into account, but in my opinion, this is just too low when compared to other veteran wideouts.
I wouldn't rank Allen ahead of Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp, but all three receivers will be entering the 2023 season over the age of 30, and Allen is arguably the safest bet to be in the best situation going forward. Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford have both entered the back half of their careers while Justin Herbert is a 24-year-old ascending superstar. When comparing Allen's value at WR41 to that of Adams at WR13 or Kupp at WR17, I think he's a screaming buy for teams that plan on chasing a title within the next two seasons.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Whereas Keenan Allen is a better fit for squads with championship aspirations, Nico Collins looks like a good option for managers keeping the future in mind. Collins has been sidelined with a foot injury since Week 13 but was starting to come on strong as the Texans' WR1. In Weeks 10-12, Collins out-targeted Brandin Cooks 26-18 while playing on more snaps in every contest.
It's a shame that Collins is not healthy at the moment as he would probably be thriving with Cooks injured as well. 29-year-old Chris Moore is enjoying some solid production with the two of them inactive.
Cooks' frustrations in Houston have become public knowledge at this point, so a trade this offseason feels almost guaranteed. What's not guaranteed is the team selecting a quarterback with the first overall NFL Draft pick in April, but most draft experts believe they will do exactly that.
The Texans have an additional first-round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade that they could use on a wide receiver, but the 23-year-old Collins is likely to be a top-two option on an offense that absolutely has to improve next season. It would be difficult for it to get much worse as Houston ranks bottom-10 in passing offense this year and bottom-three in scoring.
Houston traded multiple picks to move up to acquire Collins in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The 6'4", 215-pound Collins has shown flashes in his second professional season despite getting looks from Davis Mills and Kyle Allen.
Pass-catchers with 70% or less catchable target rate and at least 50 targets:
70% - Mike Evans, Juwan Johnson, Michael Gallup
69% - A. Robinson
68% - R. Woods, Davante Adams 🤯65% - DJ Moore 😢
62% - Nico Collins
57% - Kyle Pitts 🫠
stats @ff_spaceman
— Chris Reelfs (@ChrisReelfs) December 20, 2022
He has the physical traits necessary to be a legitimate red-zone threat in the future. All he needs is an offense that can consistently get him there.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars surprised fans when they gave substantial contracts to wideouts Christian Kirk and Zay Jones this past offseason. Both have played up to their salaries, however, and especially has Jones as of late.
Jones has finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver three times in the past four weeks. This production didn't necessarily come out of nowhere as he displayed some upside during his time in Buffalo and Las Vegas, but 2022 has by far been the 27-year-old's best season. I believe he can continue to operate as a solid weapon for Trevor Lawrence, but trading him while he's hot this year might not be a bad idea.
For starters, Jones has capitalized on plus matchups but will face more difficult tests in the New York Jets and Houston Texans over the next two weeks. The Jets are especially worrisome, as rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner has been shutting down opposing wideouts lately.
Sauce Gardner has allowed just one catch or fewer in HALF his games this season 🤯
Reminder he is a rookie 🤯 pic.twitter.com/seMAhLrqS9
— PFF (@PFF) December 20, 2022
Luckily, Jones spends some time in the slot, so it's unlikely that Gardner shadows him for the entire contest, but I wouldn't anticipate another huge performance from Jones on Thursday night. What Jones does for the rest of the year pales in comparison of importance to what his situation will look like in 2023, though.
Jacksonville traded for former All-Pro Calvin Ridley ahead of this year's trade deadline. Of course, Ridley will not be eligible to play until next season when his suspension is lifted, but he has proven that he can be a true number-one receiver in the past. Ridley earned over 9.5 targets per game en route to a top-five fantasy finish in his third season in Atlanta.
Jones' value should fall dramatically next summer as soon as Ridley is reinstated and starts building some hype. Non-contending fantasy managers should plan accordingly.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco started generating some buzz this past summer when he was reportedly taking first-team reps ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in training camp. Many remained skeptical, though, as it's incredibly rare for seventh-round running backs to make an impact, let alone take a starting job away from a former first-round selection. But that's exactly what happened.
CEH got off to a solid start for fantasy purposes this season, but it was clear to see that he was overachieving in limited utilization. His snap counts continually diminished as Pacheco received more touches. Edwards-Helaire was eventually placed on Injured Reserve with an ankle sprain, but the transition to Pacheco had already occurred.
Pacheco has looked quite good in his time as the lead runner and is averaging an impressive 5.05 yards per carry on almost 16 rushing attempts per game since Week 10. There are still a few concerns to be aware of, though.
For one, Pacheco is not a great pass-catcher, or at least has not been used like one. On a Chiefs team that has attempted almost 40 passes per game over the past three seasons, a pure first-and-second-down grinder is not going to blow you away with fantasy output. Despite his consistent production on the ground, Pacheco has just one weekly finish inside the top-15 running backs.
Kansas City has also stayed in pursuit of another running back, even with Pacheco exceeding expectations. The team signed Melvin Gordon III after they were unable to snag Eno Benjamin off waivers a few weeks ago.
New Texans RB Eno Benjamin was sought after on waivers, the Chiefs, Saints and Seahawks also put a claim in on him, per source.
The Broncos also put in a claim on DB Justin Layne, who went to the Bears with higher priority.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 16, 2022
Gordon is yet to touch the ball in a Chiefs uniform, but the point still stands: Kansas City is constantly searching for ways to improve its running back room. Because there was such little investment in Pacheco, it is difficult to have faith in him retaining a lead role next season.
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