RADIO
We are heading into Week 14, and the NFL season is really getting into the juicy part of the schedule. Some teams are done for the year in terms of playoff contention, but there are a ton of teams in both conferences that are still vying for those final few spots. The key part to betting on these games is going to be focusing on which teams still have something to play for and prioritizing those games. With that in mind, we'll be paying closer attention to which games we're putting our money on as the season winds down.
It was a rough week last week with a lot of game scripts working against us. The Houston Texans were up big on the Dallas Cowboys, and that resulted in a lot of yards for Dameon Pierce. Jaylen Waddle and the Miami Dolphins never really got their offense going. The same went for Nick Chubb and the Cleveland Browns as the Cincinnati Bengals set out from the jump to keep him in check. We're down a little over 13 units heading into this week, and I have to get it together to fix that before season's end.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14
O65.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders has been an up and down story all season long. At times, the team has rode him heavily en route to big victories. In other games, they’ve gotten out to such large leads that they stop giving him the ball at all. This week seems like one where they’ll be able to move the ball at will on the ground. The Chicago Bears rank 29th by DVOA against the run, and they’re giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry and 114 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Sanders has hit this mark in eight of his 13 games this season, and, in the games he’s missed it, the team has either had a tough matchup, or they were ahead by enough that they didn’t need to run the ball. This Bears’ defense just isn’t ready to match up with the firepower they’re going to run into with the Eagles coming to town, and Sanders should have a healthy workload on his plate this week.
O51.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
How will head coach Arthur Smith adjust his offense to fit around quarterback Desmond Ridder? I think the only thing that will change will be that Ridder will likely be running less than Mariota was. However, running back Cordarrelle Patterson will likely continue to be heavily featured in the offense. In nine games this season, he has 108 carries for 566 yards and five touchdowns. He’s also cleared this mark in five of those nine games, including each of his last three outings.
This Saints defense is not the same one we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons that couldn’t be run on. They rank 21st by DVOA against the run, and they’re giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs this season. Back in Week 1, they let Patterson run wild on them to the tune of 22 carries for 120 yards. The Falcons will want to care of the football and work the clock. Patterson is how they’ll accomplish that.
Sam Hubbard
O0.75 Sacks
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
There’s something to be said when it comes to riding the hot hand. After totaling just one sack in his first five games this season, Cincinnati Bengals pass rusher Sam Hubbard has proceeded to rip of 5.5 sacks in his last eight games, including one sack in each of his last three games. The one thing that scares me about this prop is the fact that Tom Brady has taken the fewest sacks in the NFL this season because he gets rid of the ball so fast.
However, Brady has no ability to escape the pocket. Tackle Tristan Wirfs is questionable with an ankle injury, but, even if he plays, the rest of the offensive line has still been a massive question mark all season long. If Hubbard can just get a couple of rushes on Brady, he’ll just need the coverage to hold up one time for him to get home and finish the job.
Saquon Barkley
U67.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley hasn’t missed a game yet this season, and I think he’s playing through something that’s really holding him back. After rushing for 50 or more yards in each of his first nine games this season, he’s hit that mark just once in his last four contests, and he’s been forced to grind out those yards in the process. Between the offenses struggles and his possible injury, the last four weeks have not been kind to Barkley.
Now, he draws a defense that held him to 63 yards in a game that went to overtime two weeks ago, and they’re coming off of their bye week with a chance to nearly lock up a trip to the playoffs for the winning team. Meanwhile, Barkley and the Giants got ran over last week. The Washington Commanders are fourth in the NFL by DVOA against the run. They’re allowing 78.5 yards per game to opposing running backs and 4.0 yards per carry. Barkley doesn’t look right, and I think Washington shuts him down again this week.
Parris Campbell
O40.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -110
With Hubbard, we’re riding the hot hand. With Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell, we’re fading the cold hand that is the Minnesota Vikings defense. They’ve given up 300 or more passing yards in each of their last five games, and they’ve given up 297 or more in seven of their last eight. One of the primary beneficiaries this week is Campbell. In 10 game starting in Week four, Campbell has hit this number in seven of the team’s 10 games.
This game will be played in a dome which eliminates any weather issues the team might be dealing with. On the year, five of Campbell’s seven games where he exceeded this line took place in dome stadiums where weather is non-existent, and he is able to put his full speed and athleticism on display. I think Campbell and the Colts can turn this game into a shootout where they need to throw a fair bit this week.
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