Welcome back to the early edition of RotoBaller’s 2018 fantasy baseball rankings! As a reminder, this round of rankings comes to you courtesy of Pierre Camus and Jeff Kahntroff, in addition to yours truly. Today, I’ll be taking a look at how we ranked starting pitchers.

As you peruse the info below, keep in mind that there are likely to be some significant changes between now and March. Trades, free agent signings, injuries, and a host of other complicating factors will dictate just how much our opinions shift.

And in case you missed them, you can find our hitter rankings and analysis columns for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop and outfield.

Editor's Note: You can find even more of our staff's initial 2018 fantasy baseball rankings for other formats including dynasty leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only leagues and more.

 

2018 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers (January)

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Kyle	Pierre	Jeff
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	SP	7	10	3
2	1	Max Scherzer	SP	13	12	15
3	1	Corey Kluber	SP	15	16	16
4	1	Chris Sale	SP	24	18	18
5	2	Madison Bumgarner	SP	21	28	20
6	2	Noah Syndergaard	SP	26	31	28
7	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	37	29	30
8	2	Jacob deGrom	SP	40	36	40
9	2	Luis Severino	SP	41	50	36
10	2	Zack Greinke	SP	47	34	49
11	2	Yu Darvish	SP	44	51	57
12	2	Justin Verlander	SP	50	59	43
13	3	Carlos Carrasco	SP	46	53	55
14	3	Carlos Martinez	SP	55	45	59
15	3	Robbie Ray	SP	70	56	64
16	3	Chris Archer	SP	77	55	63
17	3	Aaron Nola	SP	58	86	75
18	3	James Paxton	SP	89	69	72
19	3	Jake Arrieta	SP	78	80	99
20	4	Jose Quintana	SP	90	90	81
21	4	Dallas Keuchel	SP	105	110	87
22	4	Rich Hill	SP	119	119	74
23	4	Alex Wood	SP	88	94	145
24	4	Kyle Hendricks	SP	150	95	89
25	4	Lance McCullers	SP	135	124	88
26	4	Jon Lester	SP	92	123	138
27	4	Shohei Ohtani	SP/OF	118	97	141
28	5	Jose Berrios	SP	107	101	153
29	5	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	101	103	165
30	5	Gerrit Cole	SP	102	91	180
31	5	Danny Duffy	SP	159	107	107
32	5	Johnny Cueto	SP	108	139	140
33	5	David Price	SP	113	116	164
34	5	Marcus Stroman	SP	144	71	178
35	5	Sonny Gray	SP	175	126	98
36	5	Gio Gonzalez	SP	186	108	143
37	6	Zack Godley	SP	93	249	97
38	6	Luis Castillo	SP	136	173	135
39	6	Luke Weaver	SP	139	155	156
40	6	Jimmy Nelson	SP	249	113	100
41	6	Michael Fulmer	SP	153	131	207
42	6	Jon Gray	SP	128	158	217
43	6	Drew Pomeranz	SP	208	160	139
44	6	Dylan Bundy	SP	232	168	108
45	6	Jordan Montgomery	SP	172	#N/A	#N/A
46	6	Jameson Taillon	SP	173	189	166
47	6	Danny Salazar	SP	143	201	188
48	6	Tyler Chatwood	SP	#N/A	180	#N/A
49	6	Cole Hamels	SP	189	170	183
50	7	Archie Bradley	SP	129	234	#N/A
51	7	Mike Clevinger	SP	165	#N/A	215
52	7	Kenta Maeda	SP	127	206	238
53	7	Trevor Bauer	SP	217	162	194
54	7	Lance Lynn	SP	257	136	189
55	7	Garrett Richards	SP	132	283	170
56	7	Charlie Morton	SP	179	257	159
57	7	Brad Peacock	SP	152	251	202
58	7	Jeff Samardzija	SP	193	161	258
59	7	Taijuan Walker	SP	204	209	223
60	8	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	#N/A	#N/A	213
61	8	Alex Cobb	SP	271	199	184
62	8	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	222	219	222
63	8	Carlos Rodon	SP	227	225	214
64	8	Dinelson Lamet	SP	256	217	200
65	8	Kevin Gausman	SP	273	182	227
66	8	Aaron Sanchez	SP	211	240	232
67	8	Patrick Corbin	SP	215	#N/A	241
68	8	Jake Faria	SP	242	227	224
69	9	Ervin Santana	SP	248	247	210
70	9	Jake Odorizzi	SP	219	#N/A	254
71	9	Rick Porcello	SP	#N/A	243	231
72	9	Chase Anderson	SP	202	258	260
73	9	Sean Manaea	SP	183	279	269
74	9	Blake Snell	SP	235	268	229
75	9	J.A. Happ	SP	221	288	230
76	9	Zach Davies	SP	315	192	242
77	9	Julio Teheran	SP	264	232	267
78	10	Michael Wacha	SP	236	273	259
79	10	Collin McHugh	SP	259	#N/A
80	10	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	260	#N/A	#N/A
81	10	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	#N/A	261
82	10	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	296	#N/A	228
83	10	Lucas Giolito	SP	287	237	#N/A
84	10	Josh Hader	SP	#N/A	264	#N/A
85	11	Tanner Roark	SP	265	#N/A	#N/A
86	11	German Marquez	SP	#N/A	254	294
87	11	Chris Devenski	SP/RP	#N/A	275
88	11	Dan Straily	SP	279	#N/A	#N/A
89	11	Junior Guerra	SP	#N/A	#N/A	280
90	11	Steven Matz	SP	267	295	#N/A
91	12	Felix Hernandez	SP	275	291	#N/A
92	12	Marco Estrada	SP	309	#N/A	257
93	12	John Lackey	SP	#N/A	#N/A	285
94	12	Luiz Gohara	SP	#N/A	#N/A	287
95	12	Vince Velasquez	SP	283	#N/A	296
96	12	Ivan Nova	SP	310	#N/A	272
97	12	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	291	#N/A	#N/A
98	12	Brandon Woodruff	SP	#N/A	#N/A	297
99	12	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	323	#N/A	286
100	12	Ian Kennedy	SP	305	#N/A	#N/A
101	12	Robert Stephenson	SP	314	#N/A	#N/A
102	12	Jakob Junis	SP/RP	316	#N/A	#N/A
103	12	Wei-Yin Chen	SP	319	#N/A	#N/A

 

Tier 1

Remember two years ago, when it seemed like aces ran 20 deep? Yeah, not so much these days. The four in this tier are as close to unimpeachable as it gets, though. Despite missing significant chunks of the past two seasons with back injuries, Clayton Kershaw remains our consensus top pitcher. He’s just that good. Case in point: Over the last five years, Kershaw has a 1.95 ERA. Our consensus #2, Max Scherzer, sits at a 2.87 mark over the same span. Of course, he’s also averaged nearly 220 innings per season while posting a similarly elite strikeout rate and leading MLB with 89 wins during that time. Corey Kluber and Chris Sale have been just as durable and consistently excellent.

Tier 2

Even if you miss out on the Four Horsemen, you can grab any of the guys in this group and feel reasonably confident in them as your ace. Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard missed most of last season, but are obviously elite talents. Strasburg has thrown more than 183 innings only once in eight MLB seasons, but managed 175 last year in what was his best performance to date. Jacob deGrom saw his ERA rise by a half-run for the second straight year, but remained among the best SP anyway. Luis Severino recovered from a poor showing in 2016 to emerge as one of the game’s best young arms. Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Yu Darvish all have lengthy track records of success and are coming off solid seasons.

Tier 3

Anyone who has read my prior work knows how I feel about Aaron Nola, and it’s gratifying to see him ranked appropriately after being disrespected last year. I’d still take Carlos Carrasco and Martinez over him, but there’s not much of a gap. Robbie Ray, Chris Archer, and Jake Arrieta have their share of question marks, but each is capable of putting up an ace-caliber campaign. So is James Paxton if he can ever stay healthy, which is a fairly gargantuan “if.” Rounding out the top 20 SP is Jose Quintana, who posted the worst ERA of his career in 2017 but has been a model of reliability for most of this decade.

Tier 4

The fact that we’re already dealing with a high degree of uncertainty underscores the difficulty of handicapping the current pitcher market. Dallas Keuchel rebounded after a down year in 2016, but he also didn’t crack 150 innings. Neither did Kyle Hendricks, who’s essentially the NL version of Keuchel. Meanwhile, reaching that IP threshold would be a miracle for Rich Hill, and Alex Wood only barely cleared it himself. Lance McCullers hasn’t topped 125. The innings you do get will be high-quality, but the lack of volume is obviously an issue. It’s safe to assume you’ll get volume from Lester, whose 180 innings last season represented the lowest total of his career, but his ERA nearly doubled from the prior season and he posted his worst WHIP in a decade. Then there’s Shohei Ohtani, whose draft-day cost will almost certainly exceed where we’ve ranked him.

Tier 5

This group includes a trio of former aces whose performances slipped last year. Masahiro Tanaka posted the highest strikeout rate of his career, but a complete inability to prevent home runs led to his ERA ballooning to 4.74. David Price and Johnny Cueto battled injuries all season long and weren’t anywhere close to form when they did pitch. Gerrit Cole and Danny Duffy took steps back that their small-market clubs couldn’t afford. Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray put nightmarish 2016 campaigns behind them with solid efforts in 2017. Finally, suffice it to say I am not here for Gio Gonzalez being a top-40 pitcher this season. Those ratios last season were a mirage, my friends.

Tier 6

I’ll gladly take Zack Godley and Luis Castillo over most of the guys in the previous tier. While each obviously has a limited sample of MLB performance, their skills demonstrated considerable upside. Pierre is outside his mind ranking Godley so low. I’m also not sure why neither of my colleagues even bothered to rank Jordan Montgomery. It’s true that there have been rumblings about the Yankees looking for another starter, but as of right now he’s in the rotation and coming off a quality rookie season. They must have gotten him confused with Jimmy Nelson, who is likely to miss significant time after suffering a torn labrum last fall but garnered a top-30 SP rank from both of them anyway.

Tier 7

Our opinions of these pitchers are fairly divergent, with the exception of Taijuan Walker. I’m higher on Kenta Maeda and Garrett Richards, and fading Lance Lynn and Trevor Bauer. I’ve made this point elsewhere, but I honestly don’t see that large of a gap between Maeda and his teammate Rich Hill – at least not enough to justify the drastic difference in draft cost. My ranking of Richards is admittedly bullish for a guy who’s only thrown 62 innings over the last two seasons, but the profit potential is immense. Lynn’s surface stats looked fine last year, but they masked a drop in strikeouts and a doubling of his HR/9. As for Bauer, a strikeout surge didn’t do anything to help his typically middling ratios; he’s still never posted an ERA below 4.00 or a WHIP under 1.30.

Tiers 8 – 12

A few quick hits to close things out:

• If his velocity gains from 2017 carry over, Chase Anderson could be one of the biggest bargains in fantasy this year.
• Still trying to figure out how Rick Porcello won a Cy Young in 2016.
• It doesn’t surprise me to see that nobody else ranked Anthony Desclafani after he missed the entire 2017 season. He’s likely to go undrafted in most leagues, but don’t forget about him.
• I won’t forget about Luiz Gohara next round, either.
• Good to see folks have finally realized that Julio Teheran is garbage.

 

More MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis