Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Cardinals vs Packers

October 28, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cardinals and Packers and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 8 with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Green Bay Packers.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers: More or Less Contest

• Aaron Jones MORE than 69.5 rushing yards
• Chase Edmonds MORE than 46.5 rushing yards

In his career, Aaron Jones has run for 70 or more yards in 23 games. Green Bay’s record in those games? 19-4. The Cardinals are giving up 5.0 yards per carry on the ground this season, and they’ve been able to force opponents to abandon the run by getting out to big leads. Green Bay should be able to keep things close, and a big way they can do that is by running the ball with Aaron Jones. Jones has hit this mark in four out of seven games thus far with the three outliers being against teams that all rank in the top 12 in rushing yards allowed per game. With Davante Adams and Allen Lazard (COVID) sidelined, we should see a heftier workload for Jones in this one. 

Chase Edmonds has had some tough luck on a line of 46.5 rushing yards this year. He’s gone over this mark three times in seven games, but he’s finished with 46 in two of the four games where he fell short. The Packers have been far from elite at stopping the run as they’re giving up 4.9 yards per carry. Edmonds is the more explosive running option in this offense with James Conner being more of the short-yardage back. With quarterback Kyler Murray running less as of late, as he hasn’t cleared 10 rushing yards since Week 4, Edmonds should see more work in this game, especially if they start to build a lead. 

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Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers: More or Less Contest

• DeAndre Hopkins MORE than 80.5 receiving yards
• A.J. Dillon MORE than 40.5 rushing yards

The Green Bay Packers defense has been beaten up all year, and that’s especially true in the secondary where safety Adrian Amos is the only player at any level of the defense to have played 100 percent of the defensive snaps this season. Wideout DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t been putting up the gaudy numbers we are used to, but he hasn’t needed to with the effectiveness of the rest of this offense. He’s only gone for more than this mark twice in seven games, but the Packers seem as though they may force Arizona to throw more often, even with Adams out of the lineup. Hopkins could get here with a big catch or two. He’s also gone for at least 50 yards in all but one game, so it really only takes him one more catch after that to get into this range. 

This leg falls heavily in line with the Jones prop from up. Running back A.J. Dillon is a mack truck that runs over anyone in his way, and he’s the perfect complement to the “lightning” role that Jones plays. As I pointed out in the Jones section, this defense is not good at stopping the run, and Dillon can make them pay. Throw in the fact that he has a ton of long speed for his size, and he can turn a broken tackle or two into a huge play. 

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Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers: More or Less Contest

• Aaron Jones MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
• DeAndre Hopkins MORE than 16.5 fantasy points

Back in Week 2, the Detroit Lions made a point to take away the passing game and specifically Adams. When that happened, it resulted in a lot of touches for Jones, as his 23 in that game were the most he’s seen in a game this season. In 18 career games with at least 20 touches, the Packers are 16-2 with one of those losses coming with quarterback Brett Hundley under center. He’s also scored just one touchdown since Week 3, and there is a greater than zero chance that he’ll be finding the end zone in this one either in the air or on the ground. 

With the idea that Hopkins is going to get over the 80.5 yards mark, that alone would put him halfway to this point total. Hopkins has seen at least four targets in every game this season, and he’s caught three or more balls in every game. If he’s able to find the end zone, he’s right there. If you think that he’s going to go under on his yardage total, it’d be a good idea to flip this to a LESS than selection.

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Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers: Rapid Fire Contest

• Kyler Murray +10.5 passing yards vs Aaron Rodgers & A.J. Green +29.5 receiving yards vs DeAndre Hopkins

The Kyler Murray over Rodgers call is specifically based on the belief that the Packers try and control the game on the ground. Additionally, with Adams out, Rodgers won’t have his best weapon in the receiving game. He can produce without him, but it won’t come nearly as easy. In the A.J. Green vs Hopkins matchup, it’s based entirely on the idea that Green is going to catch one big pass that gets him at least in the neighborhood of Hopkins. He has the size to still win jump balls, and it would only take him one to cover this massive gap.

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