After reviewing Week 7's Buy Low/Sell High list, it's time to look at the best candidates to buy and sell for Week 8. I had a much easier time with the "Buy Low" list than I did the "Sell High" this week. I worry that we're starting to really find out who will be a good player and who will be a dud. This is good when setting a lineup, but it doesn't help when buying and selling players based on perceived value. You will see some players from last week that stayed under each list, and some that have jumped from one list to the other. The value of a player is constantly changing. We're just trying to keep up!

Week 8 Fantasy Football Buys

Drew Brees (QB, NO)

If you are struggling at the quarterback position and looking for a change, Drew Brees could be a steal. Brees missed one game due to injury but battled a shoulder injury for at least two others. He is averaging under 14 fantasy points per game on the year with eight touchdowns and six turnovers. But don’t confuse the 36 year-old Brees with the 39 year-old Peyton Manning. Brees is third in passing yards per game and eighth in completion percentage. In the last three games, the Saints lead the league in red zone possessions. In the same time span, they rank 12^th in red zone touchdowns. According to sportingcharts.com, the Saints are ranked 11^th in Red Zone QBR. Since 2009, Brees has finished at 11^th or worse in Red Zone QBR only twice (2010 and 2014), and he still finished in the top ten both years.

The selling point on Drew Brees is his consistency over the years. He hasn’t finished outside the top six since 2005. He has done it with a variety of number one receivers – Kenny Stills, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and Lance Moore. Just like a running back, volume alone is a reason to own the Saints QB. The Saints currently rank fifth in pass percentage, and have finished outside the top five only once since 2006. Look for Brees to get more comfortable with rookie Willie Snead and second-year WR Brandin Cooks as the season progresses.

The remaining schedule for the Saints only has one top ten passing defense and a fantastic stretch of games for the fantasy playoffs – Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Jacksonville who rank 29^th, 26^th, and 24^th in points given up to quarterbacks on the year. This is one of the rare times when a bye week should be a positive for fantasy owners. A late bye week in week 11 should help with any injury concerns and his rhythm with his receivers.

An obvious trade is to offer a starting QB for Brees and another piece, or use the perceived “downgrade” of your starting QB for Brees in a bigger deal. I would recommend against a straight up swap at the QB position. No need to take a risk on Brees if you’re rostering someone already in the top ten. But if you can land even a flex player while trading your Derek Carr or Russell Wilson for Brees, it’s worth doing. Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Ryan Fitpatrick, Alex Smith, and Matt Ryan are all ranked ahead of Brees (among others), and I would take Brees over all of them for the rest of the year.

Antonio Andrews (RB, TEN)

Part of the hustle of buying low and selling high is grabbing a player with very little value and flipping him down the line. Antonio Andrews is a prime candidate for a two-week flip. While Dexter McCluster has had the most snaps in the last two weeks, Andrews has had almost twice as many rushes and rush yards. Bishop Sankey’s snap count has decreased from 33% of offensive snaps in week five to only 4% in week seven. Andrews had five rushing attempts in the second half of their 10-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, while McCluster only had one. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry against the second-ranked rush defense in the league.

This is the reason your buying low on Antonio Andrews. The Titans are coming off a competitive loss to the 6-1 Atlanta Falcons, who are ranked seventh in ESPN’s Week 8 Power Rankings. They now face Houston and New Orleans in back-to-back weeks, who are ranked 29^th and 17^th respectively. Even better, the rush defenses are ranked 27^th and 28^th in rush yards allowed per game. With Sankey’s usage dwindling and David Cobb’s return from injured reserve at least two weeks away, Andrews should have ample opportunity to lead the team in rushing attempts and yards.

The price shouldn’t be too high to acquire the RB who ranks 60^th in PPR leagues with an average of 5.5 fantasy points per game. He is only owned in 40% of ESPN leagues after Wednesday’s waivers. If he is on the waiver wire, you should consider picking him up if you have a droppable player. Otherwise, you could probably have him for a weak bench player. With Alfred Morris and Peyton Manning being dropped in many leagues, Andrews might be a better alternative to stash with hopes of a return on investment. You should enter any transaction with the hope to flip Andrews after a good performance in the next two weeks. The addition of David Cobb will likely have a negative impact on his production, and four of the seven opponents after week nine are ranked inside the top 12 in rush defense.

Davante Adams (WR, GB)

It’s always a good strategy to take advantage of players who have missed time when looking for trade targets. Davante Adams owners have probably found a replacement for the second-year WR who has now been out of the lineup for six weeks. Last year, Adams racked up 12% of Aaron Rodgers’ targets with 66. This year, 28% of those targets are gone with Jordy Nelson out for the year. James Jones has shown to be a threat for receiving yards, but he only has 16% of Rodgers’ targets on the year. In the two games Adams played this year, he had 13 targets compared to the combined 18 targets of James Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Richard Rodgers. Other than the dominant five touchdown performance against the Chiefs in week three, Aaron Rodgers had his two best games with Adams in the lineup, putting up a combined five touchdowns and a completion percentage of 77%.

Unfortunately, this “Buy Low” will probably result in a miss next week. The Packers face the best pass defense in the league on the road at Denver in week eight, then face the top ten Carolina Panthers on the road in week nine. Adams could still break out in one or both of these games, so it is worth getting him now if the possibility is there. After this tough two-week stretch, the Packers only face one top ten pass defense, which is unfortunately in week 16 at Arizona. With a dynamic quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, you should still look to buy and hope Adams can fill in as a possible WR2 or flex player for the rest of the year.

It’s tough to guess what owners will need to get rid of Davante Adams. You’ll probably need to start with guys who have been producing in the last couple of weeks. Potential trade pieces could include Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, or Marvin Jones. A one-for-one swap of Sammy Watkins for Adams would probably end up being a steal by the end of the year. If you’re a Brandin Cooks owner and ready to jump off his bandwagon, Davante Adams would be a solid target.

Charles Sims (RB, TB)

Coming off a bye week and a lackluster five point game against the Redskins in week seven, Sims owners may have forgotten how productive he was. He doesn’t have a lot of name value, and he’s being outshined by fantasy favorite Doug Martin. Still, Sims has shown RB2 potential in PPR leagues with an average of nearly 15 points in a three-week stretch leading up to the bye week. Martin is still the back to own in Tampa Bay, but Sims has been consistent with rush attempts and receptions all year. He has been in on 43% of offensive snaps for the Buccaneers and outsnapped Doug Martin two games this year. Most owners probably view him as a flex play, but he could end up being a solid RB2 for the remainder of the year.

The reason Doug Martin owners are pretty excited isn’t just his production and usage. FantasyPros had the Tampa Bay strength of schedule for running backs the easiest in the league last week, and they’re now sitting at number two. Their next matchup is against the Atlanta Falcons, who gave up 19 points to pass-catching back Darren Sproles in week one, 16 to Shane Vereen in week two, and 10 to Chris Thompson in week five. Aside from the two games against Atlanta, the remaining opponents are giving up a very friendly 18 points per game to running backs.

Sims is surprisingly only owned in about half of ESPN leagues, but this is probably due more to inactive owners than anything else. If by any chance he is sitting on the waiver wire, he’s a must add. For leagues with members who pay attention, Sims probably won’t be too cheap, but it’s worth investigating. Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart are two players who have similar averages and also boast friendly schedules, but these are both the top backs on their teams. If you’re feeling risky, you could “downgrade” from one of these guys and try to get a 2-for-1 deal in your favor. Make sure you’re getting something solid as the “throw in” player. If you have two tight ends on your roster worth starting, see if you can work something out for Sims. At worst, he should be a very solid flex play in PPR leagues.

Stevie Johnson  (WR, SD)

Owned in only a quarter of ESPN leagues, Stevie Johnson should get himself back in the conversation for WR2 status in the coming weeks. The loss of Antonio Gates helps put him back as one of Rivers’ top targets. In the first four weeks, Johnson was the top target for Rivers twice. This is with a quarterback who is leading the NFL in pass attempts over the last three weeks, with 57% of plays being passes. The second place team is Detroit, with 46% of plays being passes. Rivers’ league-leading 2,452 passing yards puts him on pace to break Peyton Manning’s 2013 record for pass yards in a season. He will spread the ball around, but we saw Stevie J and Rivers develop an instant connection in the passing game. Johnson’s floor should be around a flex level player, with a ceiling as a very good WR2.

The San Diego Chargers boast the friendliest schedule for wide receivers for the rest of the year. Five of the remaining eight games are against opponents who rank in the bottom ten in pass yards given up per game. Without Gates, Stevie probably moves up to a solid WR2. Even when Gates returns, Johnson should have the chance to put up good numbers against these beneficial matchups. The playoff schedule is great, too, with games against Kansas City, Miami, and Oakland.

Owners will probably undervalue Johnson at this point. He hasn’t had good name recognition since 2012 when he had his third year in a row of over 1,000 yards receiving. Before the draft, he slowly slid up in ADP as good reports came out of training camp and people realized that he was only 29 years old. He got off to a hot start but slowed down before going out with an injury. If you’re interested in trading for Johnson, I’d start with your flex options. Stevie’s value might be around Pierre Garcon, Carlos Hyde, Ryan Mathews, or Kendall Wright. If you can get him for less, you should hop on it.

Other Buy Low Candidates

QB Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning

RB LeGarrette Blount, Jeremy Hill, Matt Jones, Eddie Lacy, Ameer Abdullah

WR Brandon LaFell, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham

TE Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Benjamin Watson, Larry Donnell, Richard Rodgers

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Sells

Derek Carr (QB, OAK)

In a year where Peyton Manning is available on the waiver wire, Derek Carr has found himself just outside the top ten in points per game. He has done this with three big games against Baltimore, Cleveland, and San Diego, who all rank in the bottom half in points allowed for quarterbacks. He’s only owned in a third of ESPN leagues, but he’s probably owned in deeper leagues and leagues that start two quarterbacks. If he isn’t owned, he’s probably one of the top options on the waiver wire. With the hardest schedule for quarterbacks coming up, and the 23^rd hardest schedule for wire receivers, it’s tough to count on Carr moving forward. QB-needy teams might look at the production of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and see Carr as an answer. He’s probably closer to “sell” than “sell high”, but now is the time to move him for any value you can get before the bad games start coming.

With the hardest schedule for quarterbacks, Carr faces five defenses that rank inside the top 12 in passing yards allowed per game. Two of the other four games on on the road. FootballOutsiders has four of his remaining opponents ranked inside the top six for pass defense. Weeks 14 and 15 against Denver and Green Bay don’t bode well for the playoffs, either.

You really have to take what you can get for Carr. I imagine most people will have the first instinct to drop him, but he’s averaging more points per game than Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Tyrod Taylor, and Drew Brees. If Carr is on your roster, read that list again then try to trade for one of them. At worst, Carr should net you a lottery ticket flier. It’s better to get something for him now than to wait and drop him for nothing later on.

Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT)

Owners of Martavis Bryant should be thankful he was able to squeak out another good performance with Landry Jones as the quarterback. With the return of Ben Roethlisberger, the offense should start moving like a well-oiled machine, right? Of course the Pittsburgh offense will have success, but Bryant is still second fiddle to Antonio Brown. Brown’s 181 targets last year was second only to Demaryius Thomas. Roethlisberger only looked Bryant’s way 48 times in ten games. We’ve seen what a change in quarterback can do for Antonio Brown. In the last two games, Bryant and Brown both had 16 targets total. In the 11 games they played together last year, with Ben at quarterback, Brown had twice as many targets eight times, and twice as many receptions ten times. Bryant is a good flex player, but he’s being incorrectly valued as a WR2 right now, and the time to sell is now.

The return of Roethlisberger to the lineup helps Antonio Brown a lot more than it hurts Martavis Bryant, but Bryant will see less targets when Ben returns. He received eight targets in the previous two weeks, and only twice in the 11 games he played last year. His three touchdowns has been a bonus that should help owners sell. His remaining schedule isn’t really a factor here. The selling point is that Bryant’s perceived value is higher than his true value for the rest of the season.

Lots of options are available to Martavis Bryant owners. If he’s being valued as a mid or high-end WR2, you can really swing a good deal. Randall Cobb owners could be trade partners if they’ve grown weary of his lack of production. Other guys you might be able to target include Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham Jr., or Jarvis Landry. These are all good first options. You’ll probably have to spice up the trade with another player, but a 2-for-1 that nets you a legit WR2 with WR1 upside is worth it. If you’re looking for a running back, I’d target Frank Gore, Justin Forsett, or T.J. Yeldon in 2-for-1 deals as well. Make sure you sell Bryant as a WR2. If you can’t get any offers, he’s a solid flex play week in and week out.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)

The third-year tight end is coming off his best three-game stretch of the year with 30 points against the Giants, Saints, and Panthers. He is owned in over half of ESPN leagues, and this seems too high. Fantasy owners are probably still viewing him based on his preseason value, which had him as the 11^th TE off the board according to FantasyPros ADP rankings. Ertz hasn’t done much to keep this value. Brent Celek has four red zone receptions compared to just one for Ertz. The Eagles have run on 33.7% of their offensive plays in the previous three games, an increase from 23.7% over the first four weeks. This emphasis on the run game has resulted in more snaps for blocking tight end Brent Celek, who increased his snap count by 8% over the previous three weeks. With the ground game emerging in Philadelphia, it’s time to dump Ertz before you lose him to the waiver wire for nothing.

The Eagles face the second toughest schedule for tight ends according to FantasyPros. The rush defenses they face are middle-of-the-road, but with DeMarco Murray averaging over 19 rushes per game the last three weeks, compared to nine in his first three games, it looks like the passing game may be taking a backseat to the ground game. This means Celek will be on the field more, which results in less red zone opportunities for Ertz.

You really need to take what you can get for Ertz. His 55% owned rate in ESPN leagues makes me think you might actually get something decent for him. With borderline players like this, I always recommend a 2-for-1 deal where you can upgrade at the same position. If you can target a more reliable tight end like Delanie Walker or Martellus Bennett, go for it. Even Ladarius Green, Benjamin Watson, and Larry Donnell might have better value down the stretch. If you’re looking to improve at RB or WR, your best bet is to aim for a bench player with a little bit of upside. Unless someone is desperate for a tight end, no one is knocking down the door to trade for Ertz. He’s probably best used as a “throw in” player with some name value because of an inflated preseason ADP.

Frank Gore (RB, IND)

Frank Gore has been a success in fantasy this year, but he is staring at a brutal schedule in the next four weeks. Along with a bye week, the Colts face Denver at home sandwiched between two road games at Carolina and Atlanta. Gore could put up good numbers and maybe find the end zone, but these are a tough stretch of games for any running back. Add in the fact that Chuck Pagano is on the outs, and there are big warning signs coming from Indianapolis. I don’t expect this team to quit on the coach, but there are other signs, too. Gore’s snap count has dropped below 50% in back-to-back weeks, and Ahmad Bradshaw has gone from 24% two weeks ago to 46% this past Sunday. Gore shouldn’t be sold for pennies on the dollar. He has been consistently producing all year. But if you were thinking of trading him and have concerns for the Colts moving forward, you might want to do it before the difficult matchups start.

The Colts face two of the scariest defenses in the coming weeks – Carolina and Denver. Two other opponents, the Steelers and the Buccaneers, are inside the top ten in points allowed to running backs this year. A newly motivated Miami Dolphins game on the road in week 16 doesn’t look as juicy as it did a couple weeks ago.

Frank Gore can still finish as a top 20 running back, and a tough stretch of games doesn’t ruin his value. There are multiple teams in every league really struggling at the running back position, so Gore’s value is even higher. If you’re trading Gore, you need to hit on whatever player you’re receiving. Gore’s value is too good to give up for a dud. I’d target under-performing receivers – Randall Cobb, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham, Jr. These guys might be a bit out of reach, but a trade partner with three good receivers and one good running back may be willing to part with a WR to get another starter at his RB2 spot. There’s not much of a reason to do a RB-for-RB swap with Gore. You would have to package Gore with an RB2 or WR2 to get an upgrade at RB. If you’re concerned about Gore and the Colts offense dwindling off, now is the time to sell. Gore is a tough piece to part with, so make sure you get something good.

Other Sell High Candidates

QB Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill

RB Khiry Robinson, Lamar Miller

WR Michael Crabtree, Nate Washington, Danny Amendola, Robert Woods

TE Jordan Reed, Jacob Tamme

 

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