Before I dive into my recap, I'd like to touch on Lamar Miller. One of the first things I wrote in my article last week was to “close this post and ignore it completely." I hope you at least ignored my advice to sell high on Lamar Miller. Before we decide whether or not Miller can finish the year as an "RB1"(top-12), I have to point out that his value has skyrocketed. When buying and selling, a bit of consistency raises the perceived value of a player. Miller has now boasted PPR scores of 19 and 38 in consecutive weeks.

Miller finished Week 7 with 236 total yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches. Since 2010, only two players have had over 160 yards rushing and a touchdown with 14 carries or less. The Houston Texans are ranked 29^th in rushing defense, giving up 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and seven touchdowns on the ground. It is safe to assume that Miller will not see another day like this. But how good can Lamar Miller be?

It’s obvious he’s the best running back on the team, and the coaching staff will continue to give him carries. More importantly, it seems the offensive line is playing much better. Miller had 125 yards before contact in Week 7, which is second best of all running backs this year. Obviously his production will drop off, but he should be a solid RB2 week in and week out. Miami’s remaining schedule is fairly fantasy-friendly, with the Jets and Eagles looming as the toughest remaining run defenses. If you can trade him right now for an RB1 (Freeman, Ingram, Peterson), you should take that deal. I would also consider guys like Chris Ivory and Justin Forsett for Miller.

Including my miss on Lamar Miller, I went 14 for 25 (56%) last week.  Players I've excluded from this percentage either had the week off or remained around the same perceived value.  I'll point out that I don't make my Buy Low/Sell High list with the upcoming week in mind.  These statistics really serve as a review of the previous week's players more than anything.  Let's get to it.

 

HITS

T.J. Yeldon - T.J. Yeldon put up his best game of the year with 18 points in PPR leagues.  He rushed 20 times for 115 yards and a touchdown.  He could have had an even better day if Jacksonville hadn't ignored the red-hot Yeldon to give Toby Gerhart four touches inside the one yard line.  It's hard to tell how much of an impact game flow has on Yeldon's numbers.  The surprising Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games.  The remaining schedule includes the Titans twice (ranked 30th in points per game), the Colts (23rd), and New Orleans (16th).  They also get a game against the 30th-ranked Chargers rushing defense.  With Yeldon's usage, he is a very solid RB2 for the rest of the year and a great flex play.  Unfortunately, Yeldon's owners have probably realized this, too, so his value should remain high for the rest of the year.

Jordan Reed - Jordan Reed was owned in less than half of ESPN leagues last week, and this should double by the time waivers clear this week.  I was high on Reed even before he was cleared to play against the Buccaneers.  He is Kirk Cousins' favorite target and a PPR monster.  Jordan Reed went on to have the best day of any tight end, putting up 19 points in standard and 30 points in PPR.  He caught 11 of 13 targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns.  His value has now skyrocketed. In the 11 games Reed has been healthy and Cousins has started at QB, Reed averaged 7.8 targets per game compared to DeSean Jackson's 6.3 targets (excluding 5 games this year) and Pierre Garcon's 8.1.  Reed won't score two touchdowns a game, but the return of DeSean Jackson shouldn't impact his production too much.

Allen Hurns - Part of the reason you can buy low on guys like Allen Hurns and T.J. Yeldon is their lack of name recognition. Too many fantasy owners will undervalue players who aren't on Sportscenter each week. When you mix in the Jacksonville Jaguars, this error is even more common. Unfortunately for owners targeting Allen Hurns, his value is hitting a plateau with little reason for it to drop. His Sunday morning game in London was saved with his late game-winning touchdown. He has shown a solid floor. Look for his value to stay steady.

Antonio Andrews - In his last four games, Antonio Andrews has averaged over 8 points per game. He has almost doubled the rush attempts of Dexter McCluster and Bishop Sankey combined in the last two weeks.  Andrews isn't hitting it out of the park, and he won't be a stud, but he might be able to return some low-end flex value after showing signs of life. With the return of David Cobb coming in the next week or two, it might be a good idea to move Andrews for whatever value you can get. However, it is worth noting that the Titans face two very bad rush defenses in the next two weeks - Houston and New Orleans, who rank 27th and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game.  It might be worthwhile to stash Andrews for a couple of weeks, hope for a big game or two, and try to flip him later as a mid or high-level flex player.

Brandin Cooks - Brandin Cooks put up 14 points while reaching his second most catches and yards for the season. He has only found the end zone once this year, but another above-average outing has him looking like a matchup-dependent flex play for the rest of the year. He has been better on the road (averaging 5.5 catches and 79 yards in four games) than at home (averaging 4.3 catches and 43 yards in three games).  I usually give an edge to the person playing at home when looking at matchups, so I wouldn't recommend holding him for this reason alone. But he has still led the team in targets in every game this year. Cooks' potential is tied to the production of Drew Brees.

From 2005 to 2007, Brees started the first six games with eight or less touchdowns, and went on to add 16 in 2005, 18 in 2006, and 23 in 2007. Brees is very capable of stringing together some multi-touchdown games as the season progresses.  The last time he finished outside the top six for fantasy points at his position was 2005.  He is currently ranked 17th in points per game.  Things will work out for Brees and he'll find himself around the top ten by the end of the year, and Cooks will benefit.

OTHER HITS (BUY LOW) : Thomas Rawls, Jamison Crowder, Eric Ebron, Crockett Gillmore

OTHER HITS (SELL HIGH) : Anquan Boldin, Golden Tate, Colin Kaepernick, Charles Clay, Benjamin Watson

 

MISSES

Jordan Matthews - Despite being the top target for Sam Bradford in all but one game this year, Jordan Matthews is still struggling to put points up.  His three catches for 14 yards on the road against Carolina is his worst performance of the year.  A rough performance against the Panthers wasn't unexpected, but it lowered his value a bit heading into the bye week.  The five opponents after the bye week give up an average of almost 24 points per game to opposing wide receivers.  Matthews owners shouldn't be worried if Chip Kelly panics and benches Bradford for Mark Sanchez. Mathews averaged 67 receiving yards per game with Sanchez last year compared to 39 without, and six of his eight touchdowns came in the nine games Sanchez was the starter. With or without Bradford, Matthews owners should hold in anticipation of his lighter schedule.

Drew Brees - Against the Indianapolis Colts, Brees tied his worst performance of the year while putting up the exact same stat line of 255 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception.  His value shouldn't have changed too much, but it's possible he can be had for a little less after his third game in a row of less than 20 fantasy points.  Brees has been off to similar starts and almost always finds a way to finish inside the top ten at the QB position. With a bye week ahead and a favorable schedule, there's no reason to panic on Brees just yet.

Matt Ryan - What a tough week for quarterbacks.  The Tennessee defense is better than people think, but Ryan's 251 passing yards was his lowest total all year, and the Falcons' 378 total yards tied their lowest amount of the season.  With Atlanta's reliance on the run game, it's questionable whether Matt Ryan can be counted on as a top-ten quarterback each week.

Gary Barnidge - I'll toss this one in the "Miss" category only because his value moved up a tad due to another solid game against the St. Louis Rams, who ranked 13th against tight ends for the year.  If you haven't noticed, Gary Barnidge is a top-five tight end.  Nothing should change moving forward.  It was advised to only sell Barnidge at the value of a top five tight end. Some readers pointed out that it would be difficult to do so because of his lack of name recognition, and this is a good point. Similar to Allen Hurns and T.J. Yeldon above, Barnidge probably doesn't return his actual value in a trade. Most people picked up Barnidge off of waivers, so it's worth looking to trade your other TE if you have one.

Jonathan Stewart - After finding the end zone twice in Week 6, Jonathan Stewart found other ways to contribute with his season-high 125 yards on 24 carries against the Philadelphia Eagles. His value hasn't changed much, but he could be beginning the upward trend he had down the stretch in 2014. The Panthers will mix it up in the red zone, as seen by the two touchdowns Mike Tolbert vultured from J Stew (and Cam Newton). It can't be considered vulturing anymore, as the Panthers have shown they will use all three options within the goal line.  Still, Stewart's fantasy value is a little more solid this week, so it was a bit premature to sell high on him last week.

OTHER MISSES (BUY LOW) : Russell Wilson, Heath Miller

OTHER MISSES (SELL HIGH) : Travis Kelce, Pierre Garcon, Brian Hoyer

 

PUSHES : Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, Randall Cobb, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, Sammy Watkins, Davante Adams, Richard Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman, James Starks, Antonio Gates, Larry Donnell

YTD % : 29 for 53 (55%)