The Cut List (Week 6) - Time to Let Go?

August 24, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 6 of the season.

Welcome back to the Cut List.

In case you missed last week, this article now reviews several of ESPN's 25 most dropped players in the past week and, in order from most dropped to least (except most injured players), determines how reasonable that course of action has been. (Some players near the bottom of the ESPN and Cut lists may have shifted around between writing and publication.)

Stats are thru August 20. Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. (As do AL/NL-only, where players rostered this widely are going to have homes.) You can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List/App.

Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN)

After two strong starts to the season, deSclafani imploded against Pittsburgh on August 13. The result is a 6.23 ERA, 5.48 FIP, and 4.75 xFIP in three starts, and just 13 innings in those starts. You'll notice the peripherals beating out the ERA. But he pitched again Friday and failed to make it through five, walking four against two strikeouts. He still has a role in deeper leagues but not really in standard ones

Verdict: Cut except in 14+.

Trevor Gott (RP, SF)

With closers, all else equal you often want to wait until they officially lose their job before cutting. With a 14.73 ERA and 10.17 xFIP through his first 7 1/3 innings, it's not to soon to look beyond Gott, especially with four of the six homers off him coming at AT&T Park. Although he hasn't pitched since the 17th, there haven't been save situations either, so if the Giants are looking for lower leverage spots for him they haven't used them yet. It's hard to see how they can go with him for the next save chance but it can't yet be entirely ruled out.

Verdict: Drop in most leagues; hold in 15+ only if you are absolutely desperate for save chances.

J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA)

Crawford got off to a scorching start, hitting .393/.514/.571 in eight July games. But it was eight games, and now he's down to .234/.336/.287. Unsurprisingly, that line includes zero home runs, not that it's based on a crazy large sample either. On the plus side, Crawford has a Statcast-expected batting average of .279, is 4-for-4 stealing bases, and is still leading off for the Mariners thanks in part to a 12.7 BB%. After an off day on the 20th he was back in the leadoff spot on the 21st.

Verdict: Drop in shallow, hold in 12-14, pick up in 15+ (or 12+ OBP leagues).

Ross Stripling (SP, LAD)

After four seasons of never starting in more than 2/3 of his appearances or throwing over 122 innings, Stripling has been a full-time starter in 2020. The results might suggest that long relief, following, or spot starting has been his best role all along. His K% is at its lowest since his rookie year and he's allowed eight home runs in just 25 2/3 innings, creating a 6.32 FIP. It's still a small sample with a better, but not great, 4.99 xFIP. His larger career sample is a 3.77 FIP and 3.58 xFIP, although that came with a lot of relief appearances.

Verdict: The upshot here is cut in shallow leagues, but in 12+, the Rockies at Dodger Stadium isn't a bad matchup for waiting and see how he does.

Alec Mills (SP, CHC)

Mills hasn't been horri-awful for the Cubs, just mediocre, with his ERA, FIP, and xFIP all between 4.76 and 4.99. The main culprit is a 16.3 K%, much lower than Mills showed in his first 57 1/3 career innings. You need more than mediocrity to send out that few strikeouts in fantasy. That said, the Tigers are next, which are always a logical SP streaming target. So if you didn't drop him after his recent start, at least wait for the next one.

Verdict: Hold for Detroit and drop if he struggles. Consider streaming if available in 12+.

Jairo Diaz (RP, COL)

It remains generally a bad idea to roster Rockies pitchers, but the battle for saves always rages. While Diaz has avoided the long ball, he's been extremely hittable and uncontrolled, with 13 hits and seven walks for a 2.22 WHIP in nine innings. That said, he's no Gott, and there seems to be no imminent threat of Diaz losing his closer gig.

Verdict: Hold where saves needed.

Daniel Murphy (1B, COL)

Murphy has steadily lost exit velocity since peaking at 90.7 mph in 2016. It's down to 84 this year. His launch angle is higher than ever at 18.6 degrees but it's less effective with no thump in the bat, and his .289 batting average is not supported by a .253 xBA. His walk rate is at its lowest since 2013 and his strikeout rate its highest since his rookie year in 2008. With two straight years of struggles, it's not clear where a recovery would come from. That said, batting fifth almost every day for the Coors Field team isn't the worst thing in deeper leagues; even last year's version hit .279 with a .780 OPS.

Verdict: Drop in 12 and under, hold in 14+.

Max Stassi (C, LAA)

Even before finding the IL on Friday evening, Stassi was being dropped for injury reasons, a knee contusion the day before. It's a shame because he is having a successful campaign by catcher standards, hitting .244/.327/.511 with four home runs. Now he's one of those clear situations if there's IL room; you put him there. In leagues without an IL, it's usually not a great idea to hold an injured catcher, except in perhaps two-catcher leagues.

Verdict: IL where possible, drop otherwise.

Nathan Eovaldi (SP, BOS)

On August 15, Eovaldi got destroyed by the Yankees, which will happen to any pitcher occasionally. On August 20, he held the Orioles to one run in seven innings. The real Eovaldi is somewhere in between, but the 4.98 ERA is much uglier than a 3.84 xFIP. With a 22.8 K% against a 4.1 BB%, Eovaldi should be doing better than he has, and he demonstrated that against Baltimore. While it's true that Boston isn't nearly the place for pitcher wins this year as it usually is, Eovaldi should be on a roster in most leagues. The Yankee game is his only brutal start out of six.

Verdict: Hold.

Austin Voth (SP, WAS)

Not to always suggest fringe pitching decisions come down to FIP and xFIP, but they often do. In Voth's case, he hasn't been good at any of the three core elements of pitching, especially strikeouts (15.2% or just six per nine innings) and home runs (five in 18 innings). The result is a 6.61 FIP and 5.95 xFIP, with no track record to suggest anything better in the future.

Verdict: Drop.

Wil Myers (OF, SD)

Myers didn't play on August 16 or 17, which apparently induced several drops early in the week. He then hit that grand slam on the 18th and has played every game since. On the year he is hitting .267/.344/.570 and Statcast is even more impressed; you'll find him in the 90th+ percentile in barrel rate and the x-Stats (xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA). Not someone you want to let go of if your roster can help it.

Verdict: Hold/pick up where dropped.

Other Drops To Consider

ESPN drops are heavily weighted towards pitchers this week. Here are some more hitters whose usefulness on rosters is perhaps limited.

Wilson Ramos (C, NYM)

In shallow one-catcher leagues, Ramos' .211/.278/.296 line isn't getting it done. He only played four of the last seven games and now the Mets are out of action for coronavirus reasons. With them not playing the rest of the weekend, Ramos is expendable in middle-depth leagues right now too.

Adam Eaton (OF, WAS)

Eaton remains a top-of-the-order hitter for the Nationals despite just a .240/.305/.347 line. In 19 games, he has one homer--which he hit way back on Opening Day--and one steal, which also came in July. He still has the playing time for deeper leagues but it's time to move on in 10-teamers and shallow 12-teamers.

Scott Kingery (everything, PHI)

On a Phillies offense that is mostly clicking, Kingery is an unsurprising exception. He has no homers, no steals, and is hitting .111, and all this despite still being an everyday player outside of three games he missed from August 14-16 due to his shoulder. Nonetheless, he has been the #8 hitter at best, and it's not clear how much longer the Phillies can ride with him. Feel free to go searching for replacements in 15-teamers

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