X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

2022 Touchdown Regression Candidates - Quarterback

Jameis Winston

Quarterbacks who could be due to decline in 2022 TD rate due to regression. Antonio Losada identifies QBs that could disappoint next season.

Throwing a lot of touchdowns? Good! Throwing a lot of touchdowns at a rate that surpasses either your average level or the league average level? Good when it happens, but maybe not so good the next year, when you can come crashing back down to Earth.

Not every quarterback is going to throw for Aaron Rodgers-like numbers every season. If a player tosses touchdowns at a rate that seems surprising, there's a good chance that the next season will see those numbers regress back toward their normal levels. And on the flip side, some quarterbacks who suddenly struggle could see their numbers positively regress toward their career averages.

So, which players are candidates to see regression this year? Let's find out.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints - 8.7 TD%

I shouldn't need to use many words to convince you of how Winston's numbers are inevitably going down next season. As much as I hate that, it is just what will happen because these types of numbers are just totally unsustainable. Since the turn of the century, there have only been nine player-seasons with 100+ passing attempts and a TD rate of 8.5%+. The ones who achieved it: Peyton Manning, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes... and Nick Foles. Of course, Watson/Winston/Foles were the only ones throwing fewer than 400 passes, boosting their rates.

Also, only Aaron Rodgers was good enough to post a mark above 9% in 2011 and then another 7%+ in the following season. All of the other ones flopped. Winston will, too. Winston will be playing in New Orleans for the third season in 2022, though he's only started seven games (all last year) either because of injury or playing a secondary/backup role. That will undoubtedly change next season with Winston the clear-cut best quarterback in tow. The receiving corps is incredible (Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry--and even Alvin Kamara) but there is little to no chance Winston improves or even keeps his numbers relatively up.

 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 TD%

While a 6.5% touchdown rate isn't that unusual, the truth is that there are fewer than three player seasons per year in which that mark is reached by 100+ pass-attempt QBs part of it. Maybe the most concerning or worrying or call-it-what-you-want thing about Burrow's potential regression has more to do with his receiving corps than Burrow himself. In fact, not even his receiving corps but exclusively WR1 Ja'Marr Chase's ridiculous rookie-season numbers.

Chase's 13 touchdowns in his first season as a pro were absolutely ludicrous. He caught 83.3% of his targets in the RZ and turned tons of those into scoring plays. Tee Higgins put up a good enough six TDs himself with Tyler Boyd scoring five more TDs. Everybody ate big time, and of course, Burrow benefited by going from a rookie season of a 3.2 TD% to a mark twice that one at 6.5% (!!!) while throwing 116 more passes. I love myself some Burrow shares, but you bet I will surely tame my expectations when it comes to his touchdown passing.

 

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys - 6.2 TD%

Prescott is phenomenal, yet it still feels he's wildly underappreciated in both the real and the fantasy worlds. That has changed a bit of late (back-to-back season with an overall ADP around 50) and makes all of the sense: barring his injury-lost 2020 season, Prescott has finished as a top-10 QB in all of his other five campaigns in Dallas. His 2021 touchdown rate of 6.2%, although not unreasonable, is still a career-high mark after he had topped at 5% both as a rookie and a four-year pro three years ago. In fact, Prescott has always fluctuated between a 4.1 and a 5.0 touchdown rate.

Going from that high to a 6.2% meant a 25% raise on Prescott's career-wide numbers, which screams regression to me--even more if we consider he tied his career-high in passing attempts with 596 over 16 games in 2021. Dallas had four players getting paydirt with a rate above 10% with Cedrick Wilson falling just short of it at a 9.8 TD%. That's hard to see happening again next season, even more, considering Dallas is waving goodbye to its tied-leading TD-scorer Amari Cooper.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Players




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Chase Elliott

an Easy DFS Pick at Chicago Street Course
Chris Buescher

Should Be Strong at Chicago Street Course
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Solid DFS Target After Qualifying 37th at Chicago
Michael McDowell

Has Solid Saturday at Chicago Street Course
Will Brown

an Interesting Fantasy Option at Chicago Street Course
Justin Haley

Has Strong Record at Chicago Street Course
Todd Gilliland

Could Surprise at Chicago Street Course
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Seeking Another Top 10 at Chicago Street Course
Josh Berry

Is Awful At Road Courses
Josh Bilicki

Shows Unexpected Speed at Chicago Street Course
Katherine Legge

Qualifies for Chicago Street Course on Speed
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF