Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 16 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

December 23, 2022

Quarterback Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for fantasy football Week 16 (2022). Gage analyzes QB matchups vs. opposing defense's pass rush. His QB matchups to start or bench.

Week 16 of the NFL season is here. A lot of teams are out of the playoffs and shutting down young players ahead of next season while a bunch of the teams in the middle of the NFL standings are looking to make a late push for the playoffs. the key for setting fantasy lineups here will be focusing on teams that aren't tanking and are working to stay competitive these final few weeks.

We went four of six last week with our starts and sits. We got some uncharacteristic performances out of some players that have been relatively consistent this season. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell off in the second half, but their early work got the job done for him. Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes were stars for us, but we saw Justin Herbert struggle in a big way throughout the entire game against the Tennessee Titans. Baker Mayfield just never got anything working for him against the Green Bay Packers while rookie Desmond Ridder looked like a rookie all afternoon.

The NFL season is winding down, and we're in the final weeks of our fantasy season. Every decision can be the difference in advancing or going home for the winter. This is when those hours of research that you've been putting in for the past six months really pay off. No matter what, let's have fun and try to get a win out there.

Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Tennessee Titans Pass Rush vs. Davis Mills

You can call me boring if you want, but we’re in the fantasy playoffs. Now is not the time to be getting cute with who you’re playing and who you’re benching. With that being said, we’re starting with Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills for this week’s sit em section. Mills is coming off of his best performance of the season last week, but he’s still yet to crack 20 fantasy points in a game. His offensive line has cleaned things up a bit as they’re in the middle of the pack for sacks allowed, but they still have room to improve.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are firmly locked in a race for a playoff spot. They’re 12th on the year in sacks, and they’ve been absolutely stifling teams on the ground. Earlier this season, they held Mills to just 8.8 points, and they made him struggle all afternoon. With quarterback Ryan Tannehill out of the game, the expectation is that the Titans will run the ball a ton which will keep the ball moving and Mills on the sideline not scoring points.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

Baltimore Ravens Pass Rush vs. Desmond Ridder

We’re going back to the well from last week with Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder going up against the Baltimore Ravens. Looking at last week’s game plan, it didn’t appear as though Arthur Smith wanted to throw with Ridder if he didn’t have to. He averaged just 7.4 yards per completion on 26 attempts while being sacked four times on the day. He added 38 yards on the ground, but his offensive line has the league’s sixth-highest adjusted sack rate. 

On the year, Baltimore is fifth in sacks and sixth in adjusted sack rate. The way to beat them has often been through the air, and we’ve seen that the Falcons just have absolutely no desire to do that. Against a defense that ranks sixth by DVOA against the run, that’s just not going to be feasible for them to stick with their usual game plan. Unless Smith shakes things up, it’ll be another long day at the office for Ridder.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Denver Broncos Pass Rush vs. Baker Mayfield

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield showed up bright in his first game with the team, but he struggled a ton in last week’s follow up performance. He was sacked five times while completing just 12 passes on 21 attempts for 111 yards with one touchdown and one interception. In two games with the team, the Rams have given up nine total sacks. On the year, they’re tied for the most sacks allowed with 51. This offensive line is beaten up, and they’re continuing to spiral downward.

The Denver Broncos got a win last week. Their defense remains one of the league’s best, and they’ve done that without having an elite pass rush as they’re tied for 13th in sacks. However, outside of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, they’ve only given up more than 23 points once all season. Their defense has generated at least two turnovers in each of their last three games, and, without a draft pick to improve with tanking, they have no reason to lose. This defense should have no problems getting after Baker.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Chicago Bears Pass Rush vs. Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen appears to have gotten over his elbow injury, at least from a fantasy production standpoint. He’s coming off of a season-high 35.8 points in a primetime game against the Miami Dolphins. His offensive line remains as one of the better groups in the NFL with the 9th-best adjusted sack rate, and they’re also giving him plenty of room to run and scramble when receivers aren’t open.

He goes up against a Chicago Bears team that ranks last in the NFL sacks, and they also have been easy to run. Whatever way the Bills plan on beating them, they’re likely going to be able to do exactly what they want. This Bears’ team has shown the ability to be frisky as of late which means that we’re unlikely to see Allen pulled early to avoid an injury in garbage time. Allen should get the job done for us this week.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Indianapolis Colts Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert

The Indianapolis Colts are fresh off the biggest collapse in NFL history. Now, they draw Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who remains one of the league’s best signal callers that just needs his weapons on the field to really be successful. His offensive line is just 10th in adjusted sack rate, and they’ve slipped a bit as of late. However, they getting healthy at the right time which is what really matters.

The Colts have been one of the league’s better teams at getting to the quarterback. They have ran up 39 sacks with the league’s seventh-best adjusted sack rate. However, Herbert isn’t the average quarterback. His ability to process defenses and get the ball out quickly, along with having his preferred receiving weapons back, makes this a brutal matchup for a reeling Colts’ team.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Seattle Seahawks Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

Again, you can call me boring and whatever else you want, but we’re in the championship rounds. We’re starting the chalk and riding what got us here. Mahomes is second in the league this year in fantasy points, and he’s playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. They’re fourth in sacks allowed, and they have the league’s fifth-best adjusted sack rate. This team is nipping at the heels of the Bills for the top seed in the AFC so every win matters.

They draw the Seahawks, who have lost four of their last five games and nearly lost the fifth to a backup quarterback. Seattle is just in the top 50 percent of the NFL for sacks with 35. However, in their last four games, they’ve totaled eight sacks, with four of those coming against the previously mentioned Rams that have struggled all season in pass protection. Mahomes and the Chiefs are constantly finding ways to put up points, so I’m riding with him again this week.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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