X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pierre Camus's Bold Predictions for 2017

By Johnmaxmena2 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller's Pierre Camus makes his bold predictions for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

I'm no stranger to making bold predictions, although this is my first go-around in this particular series.

As a fantasy analyst, I always try to take an objective, statistic-based approach. As a fan, I am an unrepentant Marlins apologist and tend to hold grudges against players and teams for decades on end. I would have put Jose Peraza first thing on this list, but Kyle stole my thunder already, much like he did in our latest mock draft (grudge held, mock be damned).

And now, for my bold predictions for 2017. I hope you enjoy the picks.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Jake Arrieta takes home another Cy Young award.

Let me start by saying this is completely predicated on Clayton Kershaw's back. If Kershaw pitches a whole season, he's practically a lock. Back issues for a pitcher can be troubling, however, and the Dodgers may play it safe with their ace to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Arrieta, who is known for his elaborate workout routines and dedication to fitness, is entering a contract year in which he somehow must prove that he has earned an extension.

Arrieta already claimed a Cy Young award in 2015 after one of the most dominating second halves a Major League pitcher has ever thrown. He also managed to finish ninth in voting in both 2014 and 2016. Some people will expect a slight letdown after the Cubs broke through to win the title, but Arrieta may be stepping his game up in hopes of a big payday, whether from Chicago or another club. For that reason, I don't think a third-round ADP is too high at all.

2. The best fantasy player on Milwaukee will be Keon Broxton.

Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar will be just fine - I'm not predicting them to collapse. The ceiling for Broxton is just that high (according to me). Along with every other Brewer, Broxton was given the green light last year and swiped 23 bags in just 207 AB. Where he outdid Villar was his effectiveness on the base paths. Broxton actually finished eighth in MLB with an 85% SB%. Over a full season, it's easy to see how Broxton could reach 50 or more SB. Detractors will point to a .242 average and 36.1% K% to say that there's no way he'll hit at the top of the order or reach base enough to have value beyond 40 steals, max. Fiddlesticks, I say. Broxton was outright bad his first time around the majors, but after a brief demotion he hit .294/.399/.538 in the second half of the season. That OBP is no joke and it will remain high because of his walk rate. Broxton walked nearly 15% of the time as a rookie and consistently walked at a 10% or higher clip across the minors. Broxton could do the same thing Villar did last year, but with even more pop. Oh, and he's available after the 15th round (unless you're in a league with me, in which I will have already taken him).

3. Danny Duffy strikes out more batters than Chris Sale.

Duffy will be more important to the Royals' staff than ever, which gives him a good shot to reach 200 innings. He jumped up to 9.4 K/9 last season and his control numbers continue to improve each season. If Duffy truly experiences a breakout season, he could surpass Sale's total of 233 last year in Chicago. It may not make a huge difference, but Fenway Park had a -5% K% Park Factor compared to Guaranteed Rate Field, just enough to think that Sale could slip outside the top 10 K finishers.

4. Andrew McCutchen will be a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

Making this claim for a former MVP and perennial All-Star doesn't seem too bold, but many are jumping ship on Cutch this season. His stock has been dropping steadily over the last few months, nearly placing him outside the top 20 outfielders in early drafts. While the speed may indeed be gone, don't be surprised if Cutch hits .300 with steady power numbers and shows enough to consistency to outpace players like Nelson Cruz, George Springer, or teammate Gregory Polanco.

5. Welington Castillo will be a top-five fantasy catcher.

Castillo came the closest he's been to being a full-time catcher last season with 113 games in Arizona. A .264/14/68 line is pretty good, but what about now that he's on a team that swings for the fences each and every inning? Castillo hit 19 HR in just 342 AB in 2015 and certainly could break 20 in Camden Yards, where the ball flies out easier than many ballparks. I'm not drafting him before the 15th round because, well, he's a catcher, but I wouldn't consider any catcher not named Posey, Lucroy, or Sanchez before him.

6. Zack Greinke falls off the map completely and out of the top 40 SP.

Blame the Arizona heat all you want, but there are legitimate concerns about Greinke losing his stuff. He has been clocked at 88 MPH on his fastball this spring, as opposed to 93 last year. It's hard to imagine someone a year removed from almost winning a Cy Young falling off so quickly, but Greinke has always been up-and-down. After finished fourth in ROY voting in 2004, he lost 17 games and posted a 5.80 ERA the following season. After winning a Cy Young in 2009, his ERA jumped by two runs and he finished with a losing record the next year. It's taken him a couple of years to full recover each time, but that was when he was in his 20s. Greinke simply may never feel comfortable in Arizona and I think the concerns are real enough that I'm outright avoiding him.

7. Eugenio Suarez outperforms Javier Baez. By a lot.

Baez has a ton of power, but he has also has a ton of holes in his swing (3.9 AB/K). Let's not forget that he doesn't have a starting job as of this moment either. Baez makes a good hold in dynasty leagues, but he shouldn't be starting on any fantasy teams in 2017. Suarez is just one year older than Baez and will hold down third base on a regular basis in Cincinnati. Even if he posts just moderate increases across the board, we're looking at approximately 25 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R and an average around .265. Now imagine if he has a breakout season...

8. The Rockies will make the playoffs.

This is mostly about Colorado's underrated pitching staff. First, I will continue banging the drum for the effectiveness of Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Chatwood. All had solid years, despite two being rookies and all calling Coors their home park. It's unclear who the closer is in Colorado, but considering they now have Greg Holland, Mike Dunn, Jake Mcgee, and Adam Ottavino all available, they have plenty of quality options. There's no need to explain how good Colorado's offense will be, especially if Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy all year.

9. The Red Sox won't make the playoffs.

Boston would seem to be in better shape after signing Chris Sale and adding Tyler Thornburg to their staff, but the recent news about David Price is definitely disconcerting. Plus, regression from Rick Porcello and Steven Wright is almost guaranteed. That aside, the staff isn't my biggest question with Boston. The loss of Big Papi will have a bigger effect than simply substituting 38 HR and 127 RBI in the lineup. If you think Hanley Ramirez will simply step in and post the same numbers, let me remind you he has missed 277 games since 2010. The Sox have one of the best middle infield combos around, but the corners are manned by Pablo Sandoval and Mitch Moreland, not exactly world-beaters. As far as the outfield, it may be more hype than substance in fantasy terms. Andrew Benintendi is a top prospect, but he's still a rookie. Jackie Bradley Jr.'s hitting streak was soooo last year - he's still a .237 career hitter in the majors. Mookie Betts, well he'll be fine. Generally speaking, I won't overpay for these big market media darlings.

10. Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy, hits 50 homers and leads the league in slugging.

Yes, this is an overly optimistic one from a Miami native and Marlins fan, but it's gotta happen eventually, right? Maybe 50 is a little high, but 45 is definitely achievable. Stanton has been labeled injury-prone, but the truth is he hasn't had a recurring issue with the same joints, rather a string of random injuries and bad luck. The biggest chunk of time he has missed came in 2015, when he took a fastball to the orbital socket. Stanton is currently representing the U S of A in the World Baseball Classic and looks perfectly ready to start the season.

His upside is what we all dream of when drafting Stanton, but his floor is actually a better justification. Stanton has never hit fewer than 22 HR in a Major League season, a low of which came in his rookie year where he played 100 games. In 2015, he his 27 HR in just 279 at-bats and hit the same number in 413 at-bats last season. He is 27 years old, still in his prime and playing for a team that could at least contend for a wild card, mostly on the strength of its offense.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Romeo Doubs

Questionable to Return in Week 10 Due to Chest Injury
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Motivated to Move Ketel Marte
Hunter Greene

Reds to Listen to Offers on Hunter Greene
Darius Garland

Won't Return on Monday Night
Paul Skenes

Pirates Won't Trade Paul Skenes
Joe Burrow

Could Return for Thanksgiving Game
Pete Alonso

Mets Expected to Let Pete Alonso Walk in Free Agency
Jared McCain

Available Tuesday Against Celtics
Kyle Tucker

to Sign With Yankees, Blue Jays, or Dodgers
Sam Hauser

Probable Tuesday Versus Philadelphia
Day'Ron Sharpe

Questionable Versus Raptors
Drake Baldwin

Named NL Rookie of the Year
Patrick Williams

Active Versus San Antonio
Kyle Hendricks

Hanging Up his Cleats After 12 Seasons
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Available Versus Dallas
Dereck Lively II

Still Sidelined on Monday
Freddy Peralta

Red Sox Linked to Freddy Peralta
Josh Giddey

Ruled Out Against Spurs
Nick Kurtz

Named AL Rookie of the Year
Daniel Gafford

Available Versus Milwaukee
Anthony Davis

Out Again on Monday
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Matthew Golden

Officially Out Against Eagles
TreVeyon Henderson

on Week 11 Injury Report With Knee Injury
Matthew Golden

Not Expected to Play on Monday Night
Casey Mittelstadt

Out Week-to-Week
Garrett Wilson

Expected to Miss 3-4 Weeks With Knee Sprain
Jason Zucker

Dealing With Severe Viral Issue
Jiri Kulich

to "Miss Significant Time" Due to Blood Clot
Zack MacEwen

to Re-Enter Devils Lineup Monday
William Karlsson

Out on Monday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

to Miss at Least One Week
Vincent Trocheck

Available Monday
Isiah Pacheco

May Not be Ready to Return in Week 11
Dalton Kincaid

Labeled Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Oronde Gadsden

Diagnosed With Bruised Quad, Considered "Day-to-Day"
Rashod Bateman

Dealing With a Sprained Ankle
Jayden Daniels

Won't Travel to Madrid in Week 11
Terry McLaurin

Won't Play in Week 11
Miles Bridges

Probable Monday vs. Lakers
Austin Reaves

Upgraded Ahead of Monday's Matchup
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Play in Week 11
Taylor Hendricks

Questionable for Matchup with Timberwolves
Luke Kornet

Questionable for Matchup With Bulls
Jalen Suggs

to Rest Monday Vs. Portland
Taurean Prince

Out With Herniated Disc in his Neck
Joe Burrow

Returning to Practice This Week
New York Giants

Giants Fire Head Coach Brian Daboll
Chris Godwin

No Timetable for Chris Godwin's Return
Bucky Irving

Could Miss Week 11
C.J. Stroud

Remains in the Concussion Protocol
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Dante Exum

Remains Out vs. Bucks
Patrick Williams

Probable Monday vs. Spurs
Day'Ron Sharpe

Exits With Hamstring Tightness vs. Knicks
Daron Payne

Suspended One Game For Unsportsmanlike Conduct
Stephen Curry

Expected to Return Tuesday vs. Thunder
T.J. McConnell

Ramping Up, Nearing Season Debut
Lukas Dostal

Pushes Winning Streak to Career-Best Six Games
Matt Boldy

Has Two-Point Night Sunday
Jesper Wallstedt

Controls Flames
Nikolaj Ehlers

Registers Two Assists Sunday
Connor Bedard

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Nathan MacKinnon

Totals Five Points in Overtime Win
Charles-Alexis Legault

Suffers Hand Injury Sunday
Parker Washington

Scores Two Touchdowns in Week 10 Loss
Emmanuel Clase

Indicted on Gambling Charges, Facing 65 Years in Prison
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Kasperi Kapanen

Targeting December Return
Mattias Janmark

Likely to Make Season Debut Monday
Zach Hyman

to Remain Out Monday
Ryan Strome

Available Sunday
Cole Perfetti

in Line for Season Debut Sunday
Pierre-Luc Dubois

to Miss 3-4 Months
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory
Scott Laughton

to Miss Sunday's Action
Aaron Judge

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Award Winners
Shohei Ohtani

Headlines List of NL Silver Slugger Winners
MLB

Munetaka Murakami Officially Being Posted on Friday
Randy Brown

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
Matt Schnell

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Co-Main Event
Uros Medic

Aims To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Muslim Salikhov

Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
Chris Padilla

Looks To Remain Unbeaten In The UFC
Ismael Bonfim

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Marco Tulio

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Christian Leroy Duncan

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card
Kyle Tucker

Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
Pete Fairbanks

Becomes a Free Agent
CFB

Luke Fickell Will Return as Wisconsin's Head Coach in 2026
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
Craig Stammen

Named Padres New Manager
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
Wyndham Clark

Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP