MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 10/7/26)

October 7, 2026

Get Keith Eyster's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 10/7/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

The MLB playoffs are rolling along, with all four Division Series in action today, and there are still plenty of opportunities across a variety of markets.

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all use the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction site—Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

MLB NRFI Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves - No Runs First Inning (55%)

The Braves pushed across a run in the first inning of Game 2, but the NRFI has hit in the other two games of this series. Game 3 featured an electric pitching matchup between Sale and Yamamoto, and Game 4 has two more excellent starters.

Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers, and he posted a first-inning zero in 10 of 13 starts this season, giving him an excellent 76.9% hit rate on NRFI.

The case isn't as strong on the other side, as Mahle has gone NRFI in a more modest 16 of 28 starts (57.1%). However, he's been a much better pitcher since coming to Atlanta at the trade deadline, posting a 1.99 ERA across nine starts. He also limited the Phillies to just one run across seven innings in his Wild Card start.

The NRFI luck hasn't improved for Mahle since coming to the Braves, but the overall results have been tremendous. Atlanta is in a 1-2 series hole and needs a big outing from Mahle to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres - No Runs First Inning (53%)

Walker Buehler is expected to start for San Diego, and he's actually been excellent at limiting first-inning damage this season. He allowed at least one run in just 6 of 32 starts this season (81.3% NRFI rate).

The Brewers have not named a Game 4 starter yet, but manager Pat Murphy hinted that Chad Patrick and Robert Gasser could be options. Patrick held opponents scoreless in five of six first innings this season, while Gasser held opponents scoreless in 15 of 20 first innings. Either pitcher is a reasonable option to keep San Diego off the scoreboard in the opening frame.

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MLB Team Totals

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Atlanta Braves under 3.5 runs (58%) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow)

The Braves have plated just seven runs total through the first three games of the series thanks to outstanding pitching performances from the Dodgers starters. Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were dominant in Games 1 and 3, respectively. Blake Snell was also quite good in Game 2, even if his outing was quite a bit shorter.

Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers in Game 4, making his 2026 Playoffs debut. In his final regular-season start, he limited a Padres offense that was the hottest team in baseball to just three runs while striking out 11.

With Yamamoto's dominance on Tuesday and the off-day on Monday, the Dodgers bullpen is plenty rested if Glasnow runs into any trouble.

Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 runs (46%) vs. New York Yankees (Max Fried)

The Yankees have their backs against the wall with Tampa Bay jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. Max Fried will get the start in Game 3 in hopes of keeping their season going. The lefty dominated Boston in the Wild Card round with six innings of one-run ball.

The Rays struggled with left-handed pitching this season, posting a 90 wRC+ and finishing dead last in MLB with a .116 ISO. They also posted the lowest strikeout rate in the league against lefties, but Fried has often relied on his elite ground-ball skills to get the majority of his outs.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Pitcher Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Tyler Glasnow 7+ Strikeouts (47%)

Glasnow only threw 74 innings in the regular season, as he again dealt with injuries. However, he posted an elite 34% strikeout rate and closed the regular season with two double-digit strikeout performances. Overall, he posted at least seven strikeouts in 10 of his 13 starts.

"I feel like I'm in a pretty good rhythm right now, so it's perfect time to bring it in to the postseason."

Tyler Glasnow (L (5-2), 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 91 P) recaps his outing and discusses how he feels following his final tune-up before the postseason. https://t.co/ZvzVt4K8zj

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) September 25, 2026

The Braves were a middle-of-the-road strikeout team, ranking 15th in strikeouts against righties. However, Yamamoto just dominated them with 10 strikeouts in seven innings in Game 3. With Glasnow in elite form in his last two outings, we could see a similar performance from him.

Max Fried 16+ Outs Recorded (44%)

This is a bit risky with the Yankees facing elimination and Fried almost certainly receiving a quick hook if he finds any trouble. However, the plus money and Fried's recent postseason performance leave plenty of room for optimism.

Fried recorded 18 outs against the Red Sox and surrendered just one run. Another performance like that would go a long way towards keeping the Yankees in this series.

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