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The Divisional Round of the playoffs kicks off this weekend, and we have some big games on the line. The Houston Texans and rookie sensation C.J. Stroud will take on the likely MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will face off as the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.
These games, as well as the NFC Divisional Round games, will surely be interesting this weekend. Many people will also be playing in daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests this weekend, and if you are, this article will contain the information you need on which players to start.
In this piece, I will go through several different positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end) to determine which players are great starts and which players should be left off your DFS lineups. Think of this as a start and sit piece for the Divisional Round. So, let's dive in and see who makes the list.
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Running Backs – Fantasy Football Divisional Round
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is coming off his best game of the year, rushing for 118 yards and three touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round. Heading into the playoffs, Jones had just three total touchdowns the entire year. So, things are certainly trending up for the veteran running back following four straight games of over 110 rush yards.
However, expectations might have to be tempered in the Divisional Round against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs and have not allowed one 100-yard rusher this season. They've also only let two teams rush for 100 yards in a game all year. Jones could be in for a rough day on the ground. He's a riskier option on Saturday against this elite run defense.
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery continues to score touchdowns this season, and that continued in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Rams. Montgomery ran 14 times for 57 yards and one touchdown in that contest while playing over 50% of the Lions' snaps for the first time since Week 15. The veteran has been a touchdown machine this year and totaled his eighth score over the last 10 games on Sunday.
In the Divisional Round, though, he'll face an elite Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive line. The Buccaneers have only allowed five rushing touchdowns all year and haven't given up one since Week 14. That does not bode well for Montgomery's chances this weekend. But the Lions offensive line is legit, which should help the veteran's chances to cross the goal line on Sunday.
There's only been two games this year that Montgomery hasn't scored. He is more likely to score than not in the Divisional Round -- even against a really good run defense. That makes him a solid play in DFS lineups this weekend.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was a fantasy superstar in the regular season and averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. However, he might struggle to get much going on the ground in the Divisional Round against the Detroit Lions. Detroit allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and just held Kyren Williams to eight PPR fantasy points last week.
Opposing running backs have averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in 2023 against this Detroit defense, and the Lions have shut down almost every runner they have played. White also totaled his lowest fantasy game of the year back in Week 6 when these two teams faced off. He tallied just 6.8 PPR fantasy points behind a 26 rush-yard day.
Given the Lions' elite run defense, White is not a great start this weekend.
Wide Receivers – Fantasy Football Divisional Round
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins has had a breakout year in his third NFL season. He was also a key contributor in the team's Wild Card round victory over the Cleveland Browns. Collins totaled six catches for 96 yards and one touchdown in a tough matchup against cornerback Denzel Ward.
He'll have another tough matchup in the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts this season. But the good news for Collins is that cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) will be out for Saturday's playoff game. Humphrey was also out when these two teams played back in Week 1, and the Texans wideout posted a solid six catches for 80 yards.
With Baltimore's top corner out and the way quarterback C.J. Stroud is currently playing, Collins should be a safe play this weekend.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has not produced consistent fantasy numbers over the past month. Dating back to Week 14, Evans has scored over 16 PPR fantasy points just once during that span, including the Wild Card round win against the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, he caught just three passes for 48 yards.
But a better game could be in store for Evans in the Divisional Round against the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wideouts this season and have had a hard time limiting the opposing team's WR1. Justin Jefferson (141 yards & 192 yards), CeeDee Lamb (227 yards), and Puka Nacua (181 yards) have all put up monster performances against this Detroit secondary over the past four weeks. Evans could be the next to join this list.
WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
It's been a quiet second half of the season for Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs. He has just one receiving touchdown since Week 10 while failing to top 90 receiving yards in any game during that span. Now, the veteran will have a tough matchup against cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and the Kansas City Chiefs secondary.
For starters, the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. That doesn't help Diggs' case in the Divisional Round. In addition, he'll have to go up against one of the top lockdown corners in the league in Sneed. The Chiefs defensive back has done a great job all year shutting down the opposing team's top receiving option.
Sneed did exactly that in Week 14 when the Bills and Chiefs played each other. In that game, Diggs was held to just four catches for 24 yards. That makes him not the best of plays in DFS contests in the Divisional Round.
Quarterback And Tight End – Fantasy Football Divisional Round
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
What a first season C.J. Stroud has put together. He became just the fifth rookie quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in a season and could have passed Andrew Luck's 4,374-yard mark if he hadn't missed two games due to a concussion. Still, Stroud had a fantastic regular season, and that continued in the Wild Card round against the Cleveland Browns.
He threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns in his first postseason start. But, the rookie will now face his toughest challenge yet -- going on the road and playing the top defense in the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Baltimore's secondary has played quarterbacks well all year while allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position in 2023.
When the Texans and Ravens played back in Week 1, Stroud didn't do much in that contest. He threw for just 242 yards and zero touchdowns. However, the rookie has come a long way since then, and chances are he'll play much better in Saturday's playoff game. But with how well Baltimore's defense has played this season, Stroud is a risky play this weekend. I'd prefer to play quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff over him.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
There's no doubt Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has had a rough year, especially in fantasy. His 219.4 PPR fantasy points were his fewest in a season since 2015. His TE3 finish this year was also his lowest since that 2015 season when he was the TE9.
But Kelce can still provide some consistent fantasy finishes like last week when he totaled 14.1 PPR points. His seven catches for 71 yards in the Chiefs' Wild Card win against the Miami Dolphins was a solid line for the veteran tight end. Those seven catches were his most since Week 11, and his 71 receiving yards were his most since Week 14.
Last week showed signs of life for Kelce. However, this Bills secondary is no joke, and they've done a great job at limiting big fantasy days for tight ends all season. They've given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to this position group. But last week, Pat Freiermuth was able to reel in five passes for 76 yards. That surely gives the Chiefs tight end a boost in this all-important Divisional Round game.
Kelce had a solid game the last time these two teams faced off in Week 14. In that contest, he had six catches for 83 yards. In a big game, Patrick Mahomes should target his favorite weapon early and often. That's why I'm willing to roll the dice on Kelce in all DFS contests this weekend.
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