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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/6/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
It's a soggy Saturday in the Northeastern part of the country and we are likely to see a few more baseball games canceled today. We had six games postponed yesterday and that put a bit of a damper on an otherwise loaded slate of MLB action. If you're not familiar, I'm "Thunder Dan" Palyo and I cover MLB DFS here at RotoBaller and have been covering NBA betting picks all season long. I have my own model for MLB games that I use mainly for game totals and strikeout props and I'm pinch-hitting for my buddy John Brubaker today to give you some picks for today's MLB games.
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This is my first MLB betting picks article of the season, but I have been betting on baseball all year, with most of my action coming on spreads, totals, and strikeout props. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks ATS, totals, and props for MLB games on Saturday, May 7, 2022. Without any further ado, let's dive into the picks!
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Free MLB Betting Picks
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: SD -120
MIA: Pablo Lopez | SD: Sean Manaea
This should be a fun pitchers' duel! Both of these pitchers have come out in 2022 and looked incredibly sharp. Lopez is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA and a puny 0.89 WHIP. He had a little hiccup against the D-Backs in his last start, but still had good velocity and was just missing his spots. And he still struck out seven hitters, too.
Meanwhile, Manaea has looked fantastic on his new team this year, coming over to San Diego from Oakland in the offseason. The veteran lefty carries a 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while striking out 30 hitters over 30 frames. Miami's offense has been one of the worst in the league against LHP, with a 29% strikeout rate and a weak .109 ISO. This is a matchup that he can dominate.
The Padres' pen has been a bit shaky, but the Marlins' pen has been fantastic, giving me even more confidence in the under here. You can bet this first five under if you just want to bet on the starters being effective, but I am going to roll the full game total under 6.5 as I think both guys can pitch deep into this one.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 total runs (+105 DK)
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
O/U: 8| Moneyline: HOU -200
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | HOU: Framber Valdez
I had a hard time finding a money line bet that I really liked with decent odds and we have at least three more games today that could be total washouts in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York.
So I am going to go with a run line pick that I like at plus odds. We have the Astros hosting the Tigers today and Houston is a solid -200 favorite here at home. But I simply don't bet favorites at -200 or higher in straight bets, in parlays that's fine.
Can Houston win this game by two runs or more? I think so. Their offense is built to hit lefties with Altuve, Bregman, and Pena being three really good bats that have been heating up. Even further down the order, you have guys like Chas McCormick and Martin Maldonado, who both homered last night, too.
And Houston's powerful left-handed duo of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are no slouches against LHP. In fact, Yordan had some of the best L/L splits in the league last season and has been crushing the ball lately.
E-Rod hasn't looked great and is giving up a lot of contact so far this season. I think Houston gets to him here. On the other side, Valdez is a guy who pitches to contact but has an elite groundball rate. Detroit's offense has been quite poor against LHP this season with a lowly .079 ISO split thus far.
I like the Astros to win and cover for us, and the solid return on our investment is worth the risk here for me instead of trying to parlay some bigger favorites or take some guesses on games that I view as toss-ups.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (+110 DK)
MLB Prop Bets and Strikeout Model
I wanted to throw in some strikeout props today, I know my buddy Kipp Heisterman who does some prop picks during the week has the day off, too. I do strikeout projections every day and have had some decent luck this season so far. Here are a few of my favorites that are posted so far and then I added my model so that you could use it to bet others as they come out during the day.
Note that the model is using 2022 data only and that it's a median projection based on the pitcher's K rate thus far and the opposing team's strikeout rate against the handedness of the pitcher.
THE PICKS
Kevin Gausman o6.5 (+105 DK)
I wrote about Gausman's incredible start to the year here (shameless plug) and why I think he can keep it up. I wrote about a lot of other hot starters with solid strikeout rates, too!
Sean Manaea o5.5 (-140 DK)
Corbin Burnes 07.5 (-150 FD)
Pablo Lopez o5.5 (+114 FD)
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