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Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 14 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.
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Heading into Week 14, at this stage of the game, fantasy managers know who and what they’re getting from the players at the tight end position. We know who and what Travis Kelce provides. We know who and what T.J. Hockenson provides. We also know who Robert Tonyan, Greg Dulcich, and Gerald Everett are. There are no more mysteries anymore.
Because of that, this will be the final article of this weekly Find Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football series. With the playoffs right around the corner, we’re going to be focusing on Weeks 15–17. We’re going to be avoiding our set-it and forget tight ends. These include Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Dalton Schultz.
Below you’ll find all of the other relevant tight ends. I have included their year's statistical averages throughout the year. For some players, I looked at specific weeks due to snap shares, even due to injury or a role change. Below those statistics will be their playoff matchups and where their opponent ranks in half-PPR points allowed to the tight end position. For each player, I have ranked each player's playoff week on five different statuses. Those include must-start, solid play, streamer, desperation play, and not a chance. These statuses should be pretty straightforward, but if you have any specific questions, feel free to ask me @RobFFSlayer. Let’s get started.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – 94% Rostered
| Pat Freiermuth | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 9-13 (Post Claypool Trade) | 23.3% | 7 | 4.5 | 57.5 | 69 | 9.8 | 32.8% | 27.8 | 2.07 | 9 | 44.4% |
| Pat Freiermuth | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Carolina | Las Vegas | Baltimore |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 7.9 | 11.5 | 9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 24 | 6 | 16 |
| Weekly Status | Solid Play | Must Start | Solid Play |
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – 86% Rostered
| Gerald Everett | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 14.1% | 6 | 3.9 | 42 | 38 | 6.4 | 42.6% | 27.8 | 1.5 | 12 | 50% |
| Gerald Everett | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Tennessee | Indianapolis | Los Angeles Rams |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 9.8 | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| Weekly Status | Solid Play | Solid Play | Solid Play |
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – 78% Rostered
| David Njoku | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-6 + Week 12 (Snap Share over 75%) | 17.6% | 5.9 | 4.4 | 53 | 43 | 7.4 | 33.5% | 29.1 | 1.82 | 10 | 70% |
| David Njoku | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Baltimore | New Orleans | Washington |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 16 | 31 | 32 |
| Weekly Status | Must Start | Solid Play | Solid Play |
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – 77% Rostered
| Dawson Knox | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 10.9% | 3.9 | 3 | 29.7 | 27 | 6.9 | 48.5% | 29 | 1.0 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Dawson Knox | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Miami | Chicago | Cincinnati |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 12.3 | 6.9 | 8.9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 3 | 27 | 18 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Not a Chance | Desperation Play |
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – 73% Rostered
| Cole Kmet | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 4-13 | 19.8% | 4.5 | 3.3 | 36.8 | 34 | 7.6 | 43.4% | 22.4 | 1.64 | 8 | 75% |
| Cole Kmet | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Philadelphia | Buffalo | Detroit |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 7.9 | 6.8 | 11.7 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 25 | 28 | 5 |
| Weekly Status | Not a Chance | Not a Chance | Streamer |
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – 71% Rostered
| Darren Waller | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-4 | 17% | 6.2 | 4 | 43.8 | 68 | 10.9 | 64.7% | 33.8 | 1.3 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Darren Waller | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | New England | Pittsburgh | San Francisco |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 10.3 | 8.8 | 6.6 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| Weekly Status | Solid Play | Solid Play | Streamer |
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders – 57% Rostered
| Foster Moreau | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 5-13 | 15.1% | 5.1 | 2.7 | 34.6 | 45.7 | 8.9 | 47.9% | 29.3 | 1.18 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Foster Moreau | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | New England | Pittsburgh | San Francisco |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 10.3 | 8.8 | 6.6 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| Weekly Status | Solid Play | Streamer | Desperation Play |
Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals – 56% Rostered
| Hayden Hurst | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 14.5% | 5.2 | 4 | 33.3 | 27.8 | 5.3 | 26.8% | 28.6 | 1.17 | 8 | 62.5% |
| Hayden Hurst | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Tampa Bay | New England | Buffalo |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 11.9 | 10.3 | 6.8 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| Weekly Status | Solid Play | Solid Play | Desperation Play |
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos – 54% Rostered
| Greg Dulcich | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 6-13 | 17.1% | 5.3 | 3.6 | 45.6 | 63.9 | 12.1 | 56.7% | 26.3 | 1.73 | 1 | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Arizona | Los Angeles Rams | Kansas City |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 15.7 | 9.7 | 8.9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 1 | 14 | 19 |
| Weekly Status | Must Start | Solid Play | Solid Play |
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – 49% Rostered
| Evan Engram | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-8 + 10-13 (Left Week 9 Early) | 15.8% | 5.5 | 3.7 | 34.4 | 38 | 7 | 40.4% | 29.6 | 1.16 | 6 | 50% |
| Evan Engram | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Dallas | New York Jets | Houston |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 6.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 29 | 21 | 21 |
| Weekly Status | Desperation Play | Streamer | Streamer |
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – 42% Rostered
| Hunter Henry | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 11% | 3.2 | 2.1 | 28 | 25.6 | 7.9 | 41.9% | 21.9 | 1.28 | 7 | 14.3% |
| Hunter Henry | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Las Vegas | Cincinnati | Miami |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 11.5 | 8.9 | 12.3 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 6 | 18 | 3 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Desperation Play | Streamer |
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – 35% Rostered
| Mike Gesicki | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 9.1% | 3.2 | 2 | 22.4 | 26.8 | 8.5 | 51.8% | 21 | 1.07 | 10 | 70% |
| Mike Gesicki | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Buffalo | Green Bay | New England |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 6.8 | 8.3 | 10.3 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 28 | 23 | 10 |
| Weekly Status | Not a Chance | Not a Chance | Desperation Play |
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – 32% Rostered
| Robert Tonyan | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 13.2% | 4.3 | 3.5 | 28.2 | 23.3 | 5.4 | 41.6% | 18.7 | 1.51 | 8 | 75% |
| Robert Tonyan | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Los Angeles Rams | Miami | Minnesota |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 9.7 | 12.3 | 10.4 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 14 | 3 | 9 |
| Weekly Status | Not a Chance | Streamer | Desperation Play |
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – 28% Rostered
| Tyler Conklin | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Mike White)"}">Weeks 12-13 (w/Mike White) | 12% | 5 | 2.5 | 29.5 | 36 | 7.2 | 29.8% | 27.5 | 1.07 | 5 | 60% |
| Tyler Conklin | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Detroit | Jacksonville | Seattle |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 11.7 | 9.9 | 14.9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Streamer | Streamer |
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks – 23% Rostered
| Noah Fant | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 12% | 3.8 | 3.1 | 31.8 | 24.7 | 6.4 | 37.1% | 18.6 | 1.71 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Noah Fant | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | San Francisco | Kansas City | New York Jets |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 6.6 | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 30 | 18 | 21 |
| Weekly Status | Not a Chance | Desperation Play | Desperation Play |
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints – 22% Rostered
| Juwan Johnson | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-12 | 12.7% | 4.1 | 2.6 | 29.1 | 35 | 8.6 | 48.8% | 23.5 | 1.24 | 8 | 62.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Atlanta | Cleveland | Philadelphia |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 10.9 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 7 | 26 | 24 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Not a Chance | Desperation Play |
Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans – 15% Rostered
| Austin Hooper | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-9 | 10.4% | 2.1 | 1.4 | 16.4 | 18.1 | 8.5 | 46.9% | 14.4 | 1.14 |
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71.4%
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| Weeks 10-13 | 16.5 | 5 | 3.8 | 32.2 | 37.5 | 7.5 | 50.8 | 17 | 1.9 |
| Austin Hooper | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Los Angeles Chargers | Houston | Dallas |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 10.2 | 8.5 | 6.6 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 11 | 21 | 29 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Desperation Play | Not a Chance |
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9% Rostered
| Cade Otton | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 4-5, 7-9 + Week 13 (Snap Share over 65%) | 12.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 41.2 | 23.5 | 3.8 | 53.7% | 38.5 | 1.07 | 8 | 37.5% |
| Cade Otton | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Cincinnati | Arizona | Carolina |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 8.9 | 15.7 | 7.9 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 18 | 1 | 24 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Solid Start | Desperation Play |
Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders – 8% Rostered
| Logan Thomas | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 1-13 | 13% | 4.4 | 2.7 | 23.3 | 33.4 | 7.5 | 62.1% | 24.2 | 0.96 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Logan Thomas | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | New York Giants | San Francisco | Cleveland |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 10.8 | 6.6 | 7.5 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 8 | 30 | 26 |
| Weekly Status | Streamer | Not a Chance | Not a Chance |
Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants – 4% Rostered
| Daniel Bellinger | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | aDot | Slot Route Run Rate | Routes Run Per Game | Yards Per Route Run | Red Zone Targets (Year Long) | RZ Catch % |
| Weeks 5-6 + Week 13 (Snap Share over 60%) | 16.5% | 4.3 | 4 | 28 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 21.1% | 23 | 1.22 | 5 | 80% |
| Daniel Bellinger | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Opponent | Washington | Minnesota | Indianapolis |
| Fantasy Points Allowed | 6.2 | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking | 32 | 9 | 15 |
| Weekly Status | Desperation Play | Streamer | Streamer |
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