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Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Playoff Edition

Greg Dulcich Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 14 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

Heading into Week 14, at this stage of the game, fantasy managers know who and what they’re getting from the players at the tight end position. We know who and what Travis Kelce provides. We know who and what T.J. Hockenson provides. We also know who Robert Tonyan, Greg Dulcich, and Gerald Everett are. There are no more mysteries anymore.

Because of that, this will be the final article of this weekly Find Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football series. With the playoffs right around the corner, we’re going to be focusing on Weeks 15–17. We’re going to be avoiding our set-it and forget tight ends. These include Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Dalton Schultz.

Below you’ll find all of the other relevant tight ends. I have included their year's statistical averages throughout the year. For some players, I looked at specific weeks due to snap shares, even due to injury or a role change. Below those statistics will be their playoff matchups and where their opponent ranks in half-PPR points allowed to the tight end position. For each player, I have ranked each player's playoff week on five different statuses. Those include must-start, solid play, streamer, desperation play, and not a chance. These statuses should be pretty straightforward, but if you have any specific questions, feel free to ask me @RobFFSlayer. Let’s get started.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – 94% Rostered

Pat Freiermuth Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 9-13 (Post Claypool Trade) 23.3% 7 4.5 57.5 69 9.8 32.8% 27.8 2.07 9 44.4%

 

Pat Freiermuth Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Carolina Las Vegas Baltimore
Fantasy Points Allowed 7.9 11.5 9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 24 6 16
Weekly Status Solid Play Must Start Solid Play

 

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – 86% Rostered

Gerald Everett Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 14.1% 6 3.9 42 38 6.4 42.6% 27.8 1.5 12 50%

 

Gerald Everett Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Tennessee Indianapolis Los Angeles Rams
Fantasy Points Allowed 9.8 9.2 9.7
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 13 15 14
Weekly Status Solid Play Solid Play Solid Play

 

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – 78% Rostered

David Njoku Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-6 + Week 12 (Snap Share over 75%) 17.6% 5.9 4.4 53 43 7.4 33.5% 29.1 1.82 10 70%

 

David Njoku Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Baltimore New Orleans Washington
Fantasy Points Allowed 9 6.4 6.2
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 16 31 32
Weekly Status Must Start Solid Play Solid Play

 

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – 77% Rostered

Dawson Knox Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 10.9% 3.9 3 29.7 27 6.9 48.5% 29 1.0 7 57.1%

 

Dawson Knox Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Miami Chicago Cincinnati
Fantasy Points Allowed 12.3 6.9 8.9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 3 27 18
Weekly Status Streamer Not a Chance Desperation Play

 

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – 73% Rostered

Cole Kmet Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 4-13 19.8% 4.5 3.3 36.8 34 7.6 43.4% 22.4 1.64 8 75%

 

Cole Kmet Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Philadelphia Buffalo Detroit
Fantasy Points Allowed 7.9 6.8 11.7
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 25 28 5
Weekly Status Not a Chance Not a Chance Streamer

 

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – 71% Rostered

Darren Waller Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-4 17% 6.2 4 43.8 68 10.9 64.7% 33.8 1.3 7 57.1%

 

Darren Waller Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent New England Pittsburgh San Francisco
Fantasy Points Allowed 10.3 8.8 6.6
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 10 20 30
Weekly Status Solid Play Solid Play Streamer

 

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders – 57% Rostered

Foster Moreau Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 5-13 15.1% 5.1 2.7 34.6 45.7 8.9 47.9% 29.3 1.18 6 33.3%

 

Foster Moreau Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent New England Pittsburgh San Francisco
Fantasy Points Allowed 10.3 8.8 6.6
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 10 20 30
Weekly Status Solid Play Streamer Desperation Play

 

Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals – 56% Rostered

Hayden Hurst Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 14.5% 5.2 4 33.3 27.8 5.3 26.8% 28.6 1.17 8 62.5%

 

Hayden Hurst Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Tampa Bay New England Buffalo
Fantasy Points Allowed 11.9 10.3 6.8
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 4 10 28
Weekly Status Solid Play Solid Play Desperation Play

 

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos – 54% Rostered

Greg Dulcich Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 6-13 17.1% 5.3 3.6 45.6 63.9 12.1 56.7% 26.3 1.73 1 0%

 

Greg Dulcich Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Arizona Los Angeles Rams Kansas City
Fantasy Points Allowed 15.7 9.7 8.9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 1 14 19
Weekly Status Must Start Solid Play Solid Play

 

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – 49% Rostered

Evan Engram Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-8 + 10-13 (Left Week 9 Early) 15.8% 5.5 3.7 34.4 38 7 40.4% 29.6 1.16 6 50%

 

Evan Engram Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Dallas New York Jets Houston
Fantasy Points Allowed 6.6 8.5 8.5
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 29 21 21
Weekly Status Desperation Play Streamer Streamer

 

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – 42% Rostered

Hunter Henry Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 11% 3.2 2.1 28 25.6 7.9 41.9% 21.9 1.28 7 14.3%

 

Hunter Henry Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Las Vegas Cincinnati Miami
Fantasy Points Allowed 11.5 8.9 12.3
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 6 18 3
Weekly Status Streamer Desperation Play Streamer

 

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – 35% Rostered

Mike Gesicki Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 9.1% 3.2 2 22.4 26.8 8.5 51.8% 21 1.07 10 70%

 

Mike Gesicki Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Buffalo Green Bay New England
Fantasy Points Allowed 6.8 8.3 10.3
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 28 23 10
Weekly Status Not a Chance Not a Chance Desperation Play

 

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – 32% Rostered

Robert Tonyan Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 13.2% 4.3 3.5 28.2 23.3 5.4 41.6% 18.7 1.51 8 75%

 

Robert Tonyan Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Los Angeles Rams Miami Minnesota
Fantasy Points Allowed 9.7 12.3 10.4
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 14 3 9
Weekly Status Not a Chance Streamer Desperation Play

 

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – 28% Rostered

Tyler Conklin Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Mike White)"}">Weeks 12-13 (w/Mike White) 12% 5 2.5 29.5 36 7.2 29.8% 27.5 1.07 5 60%

 

Tyler Conklin Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Detroit Jacksonville Seattle
Fantasy Points Allowed 11.7 9.9 14.9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 5 12 2
Weekly Status Streamer Streamer Streamer

 

Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks – 23% Rostered

Noah Fant Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 12% 3.8 3.1 31.8 24.7 6.4 37.1% 18.6 1.71 7 57.1%

 

Noah Fant Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent San Francisco Kansas City New York Jets
Fantasy Points Allowed 6.6 8.9 8.5
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 30 18 21
Weekly Status Not a Chance Desperation Play Desperation Play

 

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints – 22% Rostered

Juwan Johnson Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-12 12.7% 4.1 2.6 29.1 35 8.6 48.8% 23.5 1.24 8 62.5%

 

Juwan Johnson Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Atlanta Cleveland Philadelphia
Fantasy Points Allowed 10.9 7.5 7.9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 7 26 24
Weekly Status Streamer Not a Chance Desperation Play

 

Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans – 15% Rostered

Austin Hooper Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-9 10.4% 2.1 1.4 16.4 18.1 8.5 46.9% 14.4 1.14
7
71.4%
Weeks 10-13 16.5 5 3.8 32.2 37.5 7.5 50.8 17 1.9

 

Austin Hooper Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Los Angeles Chargers Houston Dallas
Fantasy Points Allowed 10.2 8.5 6.6
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 11 21 29
Weekly Status Streamer Desperation Play Not a Chance

 

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9% Rostered

Cade Otton Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 4-5, 7-9 + Week 13 (Snap Share over 65%) 12.3% 6 4.3 41.2 23.5 3.8 53.7% 38.5 1.07 8 37.5%

 

Cade Otton Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Cincinnati Arizona Carolina
Fantasy Points Allowed 8.9 15.7 7.9
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 18 1 24
Weekly Status Streamer Solid Start Desperation Play

 

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders – 8% Rostered

Logan Thomas Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 1-13 13% 4.4 2.7 23.3 33.4 7.5 62.1% 24.2 0.96 6 66.7%

 

Logan Thomas Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent New York Giants San Francisco Cleveland
Fantasy Points Allowed 10.8 6.6 7.5
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 8 30 26
Weekly Status Streamer Not a Chance Not a Chance

 

Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants – 4% Rostered

Daniel Bellinger Target Share Targets Per Game Receptions Per Game Yards Per Game Air Yards Per Game aDot Slot Route Run Rate Routes Run Per Game Yards Per Route Run Red Zone Targets (Year Long) RZ Catch %
Weeks 5-6 + Week 13 (Snap Share over 60%) 16.5% 4.3 4 28 9.3 2.2 21.1% 23 1.22 5 80%

 

Daniel Bellinger Week 15 Week 16 Week 17
Opponent Washington Minnesota Indianapolis
Fantasy Points Allowed 6.2 10.4 9.2
Fantasy Points Allowed Ranking 32 9 15
Weekly Status Desperation Play Streamer Streamer

 



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