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Mike Schwarzenbach analyzes MLB batting average leaders to find late-round sleepers with roto league value in the AVG category for 2020 fantasy baseball drafts.
Batting average can be the most difficult of the standard rotisserie categories to manage. Sure, stolen bases are scarcer, and home runs require a higher total to be competitive, but batting average is a different beast.
Unlike counting stats, you can never get to a certain projected total and call it quits on targeting that category. It must be fed throughout the draft and players that don't produce batting average actively hurt your team, rather than just being a non-factor. A home run monster like Joey Gallo or a steals specialist like Mallex Smith may help win you another category, but they will be an absolute drain on batting average in the process and require other players to offset their poor averages.
Batting average can be difficult to find late because, as you may have guessed, elite batting average players tend to produce elsewhere too. Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts all dominate in batting average, but will also be first-round picks in every league, so they don't exactly help our cause here. The late-round picks that help in batting average will likely have some other flaw in their game elsewhere, but if you need batting average help late, these are some targets that can help.
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David Fletcher (2B/3B, LAA)
Fletcher is the classic case of a hitter that doesn't put up gaudy fantasy stats, but his .290 batting average (and 83 runs) would be very helpful in fantasy. Fletcher has a classic profile of someone that hits for batting average. He makes a lot of contact, hits a ton of line drives, and barely strikes out. Here's a look at the MLB leaders in line drive rate last season.
That's pretty impressive company, now let's look at Fletcher's spray chart, according to Fangraphs.
As we can see, Fletcher hits a ton of line drives and he hits them to all fields. This type of profile is very difficult to defend against and helps justify his higher BABIP. Fletcher's .302 expected batting average was in the 96th percentile of all qualified hitters, according to Baseball Savant, and he was in the 94th percentile in outs-above-average while leading all qualified hitters with a 96.1 zone-contact rate. Throw in a microscopic 9.8 percent strikeout rate and you've got a hitter that should put up a solid batting average for the low cost of pick number 267 on average.
Giovanny Urshela (3B, NYY)
Urshela was an afterthought on the Yankees roster before last spring but wound up being one of their most indispensable players by season's end. In 132 games, Urshela batted .314 while also contributing elsewhere thanks to 21 homers and 74 runs batted in hitting behind the big bats in the Yankees order.
A look at his advanced metrics backs up his breakout season. Urshela's .294 expected batting average was lower than his actual mark but was still in the 92nd percentile of all of baseball. His 90.3 MPH average exit velocity was well above league average and his 25.3 line drive rate would have tied for 14th in the league if he had the at-bats to qualify. A look at his Statcast summary looks more like an All-Star than a player who was struggling to stay in the majors before last season.
Sure, the sprint speed could be higher for someone we want to put up a high average, but the rest of those scores back his breakout season. Urshella currently carries an average draft position of 216 overall. It is hard to find the batting average upside he offers past pick number 200 and he should contribute plenty of home runs and RBI as well playing half his games in Yankee Stadium.
Hanser Alberto (2B, BAL)
Let's say it's very deep in the draft and your batting average projection is still hurting. Once a draft is 300-plus picks in, there are very few players available that can be an asset in batting average. There is, however, Hanser Alberto who is coming off a season where he batted .305 in 550 plate appearances for the Orioles. Alberto doesn't quite have the skill set of the players above, but he does have an ADP of 369, so he is one of the latest players available to pad the batting average.
Like Fletcher, Alberto has an ideal spray chart for a good batting average.
Note, in particular, the five extra-base hits to dead-center and right-center field displaying at least some ability to drive the ball despite being mostly a contact hitter. This helps account for his .290 expected batting average that was still 18th in the Majors. He doesn't make great contact, his 82.9 average exit velocity was fourth-worst in the league, but he makes up for it by making lots of contact. His 93.6 zone-contact percentage was sixth in baseball and he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified hitters last season at 9.1 percent.
He is currently projected to lead off for the Orioles and plays in a very hitter-friendly home park. He should get plenty of at-bats and score a decent number of runs for a player who will be on waivers in shallower leagues.
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