MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/21/2025)

July 21, 2025

Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/21/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Junior Caminero, Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Olson, Elly De La Cruz, Bryce Harper, and Jose Ramirez

We have a full slate of MLB action on Monday, so we'll have to dig a little deeper to find value in our home run props today. Today's hitters include red-hot sluggers such as Junior Caminero, Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Olson, Elly De La Cruz, Bryce Harper, and Jose Ramirez. Each player I chose today is either swinging a hot bat, is in an exploitable matchup, or has a nice price.

The process behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, July 21, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/21/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, July 21:

• Junior Caminero (+280)
• Teoscar Hernandez (+285)
• Matt Olson (+310)
• Elly De La Cruz (+320)
• Bryce Harper (+330)
• Jose Ramirez (+380)

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Caminero has lived up to the hype this year, .259/.296/.515 with 25 home runs in 398 plate appearances. The 22-year-old third baseman is red-hot at the plate right now, homering four times in his last eight games.

Junior Caminero is going to be one of the top 3rd basemen in baseball for many years.

He is on pace for:

.256 / 40 HR / 105 RBI / 8 SB

Oh and he’s 22 years old.
pic.twitter.com/hitoy1FSOi

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) July 19, 2025

Up next is an exploitable matchup against White Sox righty Sean Burke in the hitter-friendly environment that is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Burke has given up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by his 5.41 xERA. That's bad news in a homer haven in Tampa, taking on a hitter with elite power. With that in mind, let's ride with Caminero to keep the good times rolling and hit his 26th homer of the season in this favorable spot.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hernandez is having a bit of a down year this season, slashing .250/.286/.451 with 14 home runs in 323 plate appearances. The former Blue Jay has been ice cold at the plate and hasn't homered since June 21.

However, I like his chances of going yard at home against Twins' righty David Festa, who has issues with the longball. The 25-year-old has given up a 1.88 HR/9 vs. right-handers this year.

Facing a pitcher who has given up a lot of home runs could be exactly what Hernandez needs to get back on track at the plate. Roll with Hernandez to hit his 15th homer of the season in this spot.

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Olson now has a .262/.363/.473 slash with 18 home runs in 433 plate appearances. The veteran first baseman has a 127 wRC+ with three homers in July, including one against the Yankees in his last game on July 20.

Matt Olson hits this baseball over EVERYTHING 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Hw9F1PJaHS

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025

This is a hitter who has excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 16.6% barrel rate and 113.8 maximum exit velocity.

You have to love the matchup vs. Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled vs. lefties, allowing a .390 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9 against them this season.

With humid weather, a hot hitter at the plate, and a pitcher who has a tough time vs. left-handers, this prop checks every box of what you like to see when targeting home runs. While Olson hasn't homered against Birdsong in five career plate appearances, he's generated a lot of hard contact, including a .559 xwOBA, which bodes well.

Olson has gotten back on track after a slow start, so let's take him to hit his 19th homer of the season here.

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Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

De La Cruz is currently slashing .281/.357/.486 with 18 home runs in 428 plate appearances. The Reds' star is in a home run drought right now, failing to go yard since June 23, but I'm willing to take a shot tonight.

This is an excellent spot for Elly to finally go yard in a matchup against Nationals' righty Jake Irvin, who has been much worse against lefties (.351 wOBA, 1.85 HR/9) than righties (.307 wOBA, 1.54 HR/9). When you consider that Elly has a 151 wRC+ vs. right-handers this year, you have to like the chances in this spot.

Remember, this is a hitter who generates a lot of hard contact, boasting a 12.6% barrel rate and a maximum exit velocity of 117.4 mph. It's only a matter of time before he goes on a power binge. Let's take a shot on De La Cruz to hit his 19th homer of the season here.

Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Harper is slashing .268/.378/.491 with 13 home runs in 315 plate appearances. While these numbers don't jump off the screen, the Phillies' first baseman has been red-hot at the plate of late.

Bryce Harper slashed .338/.476/.713 (202 wRC+) after the All-Star break in his most recent MVP season (2021).

He's that level of locked-in right now.pic.twitter.com/qSq6IcVPSH

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) July 20, 2025

We've seen Harper homer four times in his last seven games, so it's clear that he's in the middle of one of his epic hot streaks. There's a good chance that the long-time star can keep it going against Red Sox righty Walker Buehler.

The former Dodger has been a major disappointment in Boston, posting a 5.30 xERA, a 9.6% barrel rate, and 1.96 HR/9. There's a legit chance that we see him get rocked in a tough spot on the road in a hitter-friendly environment.

Considering how hot Harper has been at the plate, you have to like his chances of hitting his 14th homer of the season against Buehler.

It also helps that Harper has had some success against Buehler, including one homer and a .764 xwOBA in six plate appearances. We're getting a reasonable price of +330 odds here, so roll with Harper in this spot.

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ramirez is slashing .295/.365/.517 with 19 home runs in 403 plate appearances this year. The veteran is starting to heat up, homering six times in his last 13 games. It looks like Ramirez is poised for yet another second-half surge.

José Ramírez clubs a two-run shot 💪 pic.twitter.com/D9wX6RHuxk

— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2025

What I love about this spot for Ramirez is that he's going up against Orioles' righty Tomoyuki Sugano.

The 35-year-old righty has allowed an 11.3% barrel rate and 1.72 HR/9 this season. The numbers look even worse against left-handed hitters, including a .344 wOBA and 2.12 HR/9. Considering Ramirez's recent stretch combined with Sugano's challenges with allowing hard contact, you have to like riding with the Guardians' star in this spot.

We're getting a great price at DraftKings at +380 odds.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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