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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Elly De La Cruz, Junior Caminero, and Max Muncy.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, giving us several opportunities to find value in our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Elly De La Cruz, Junior Caminero, Max Muncy, Rafael Devers, and Rhys Hoskins. Each of these players is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup. We also have an underpriced hitter here due to the lefty-vs-lefty matchup.
The process behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/18/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, June 18:
- Elly De La Cruz (+290)
- Junior Caminero (+320)
- Max Muncy (+425)
- Rafael Devers (+425)
- Rhys Hoskins (+600)
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings Sportsbook)
De La Cruz is currently slashing a respectable .270/.352/.493 with 16 home runs in 73 games. This includes a 15.2% barrel rate (92nd percentile) and 117.4 MPH maximum exit velocity. With improvements in plate discipline, Elly is showing growth as a hitter.
Somehow, I feel like Elly De La Cruz isn’t being talked about enough this year.
He is on pace for:
.273 / 36 HR / 112 RBI / 45 SB
26.1 K% and 10.3 BB%He has improved his plate discipline every year, lowering his K% and raised his BB%.
pic.twitter.com/Xl9V4cZO6u— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) June 17, 2025
Tonight is a good matchup at home against Twins' righty Bailey Ober, who has allowed a 10.3% barrel rate and 4.39 xERA this season.
Add in the fact that this game is taking place in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, and you have to like Elly's chances of going yard in this spot.
The Reds' superstar is coming in hot right now, homering four times in his last five games. Let's take a shot on the hot streak continuing, even at a bit of an expensive price of (+290) odds.
Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Caminero is currently slashing .254/.298/.504 with 17 home runs in 289 plate appearances. While June has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, we're starting to see Caminero get hot, homering twice in his last four games.
Junior Caminero turns on this inside fastball and sends it WAY out 💪 pic.twitter.com/nKajfbyLdC
— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2025
The Rays' slugger has registered an 11.4% barrel rate this season, so it's clear that the power is there. This is a young hitter with 40 home run upside, so we're going to target him for our home run props today.
For one, you have to love how this game is in a hitter-friendly environment in George Steinbrenner Field. Caminero has enjoyed hitting here, as highlighted by his .307 batting average with 11 HR at home, compared to .167 and 5 HR on the road.
Secondly, this is an exploitable matchup against Orioles' lefty Trevor Rogers, who is making his season debut after a long layoff due to injury.
With that in mind, let's take a shot on Caminero to hit his 18th homer of the year in this spot.
Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Muncy has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball for the last couple of months. Since May 1st, Muncy is slashing .278/.406/.500 with eight home runs in 160 plate appearances.
You wouldn't guess it at first -- especially considering how many elite players have played for the Dodgers -- but this is one of the most productive power hitters in franchise history.
Max Muncy has a very lowkey chance to be the Dodgers all-time home run leader if he stays for a few more years to end his career pic.twitter.com/57WmTodloA
— AT (@YankeeWRLD) June 17, 2025
Up next is a matchup at home against Padres' righty Stephen Kolek. This is a pitcher who has struggled against lefties, as highlighted by a .384 wOBA against them (.223 wOBA vs righties).
Muncy has a 156 wRC+ against righties, so this is a terrific matchup for him, giving him a chance to keep the hot streak going.
We're getting terrific value on this prop at (+425) odds, making it look like one of my top values on the slate. Bet on Muncy to hit his 10th home run of the season in this spot.
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Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The next prop on my list is your newest Giant in Devers, who started off his tenure in San Francisco with an RBI.
We're getting a great price on Devers in this spot at (+425) odds because it's a lefty-lefty matchup against Guardians southpaw Logan Allen.
First hit with the @SFGiants ✅
First RBI with the Giants ✅The San Francisco crowd is loving Rafael Devers! pic.twitter.com/hEhAzR4SP6
— MLB (@MLB) June 18, 2025
What's interesting about Allen is his reverse splits, as he's allowed a .403 wOBA against lefties compared to a .320 wOBA vs righties.
It also helps that Devers has been decent against left-handed pitching, featuring an impressive 147 wRC+.
This is why we need to capitalize on this discount. We're getting a better price due to a perceived disadvantage, when there's not that much of one at all.
Even with Oracle Park being a pitcher-friendly environment, I'm still willing to take the shot considering the price. Bet on Devers to continue to make an impact with his new team.
Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hoskins has been one of the coldest hitters in baseball in June, slashing .120/.196/.180 with one home run in 56 plate appearances. This puts his overall slash at .242/.337/.411 with 10 home runs in 270 plate appearances on the season. With that said, I'm willing to go with Hoskins in this spot.
What a homecoming for Rhys Hoskins!
His 2nd home run of the day gives him 6 RBI 🤯 pic.twitter.com/z8C4EP2ezt
— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2025
For one, we're getting a favorable price at (+600) odds for a hitter with 30+ home run potential. Even in a game with a 7.5-run total, I'm still willing to take a shot at this cost.
Even with the recent cold streak, Hoskins still has an 11.3% barrel rate on the season, so he's still hitting the ball hard on the year.
It also helps that this is a matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has had a tougher time vs righties this season, as highlighted by a 2.06 HR/9 (1.51 HR/9 vs lefties).
Good luck if you're tailing these bets. Remember to only use a small portion of your bankroll because home run props are tough to hit. You don't want to be stressing about your chosen hitter barreling the ball, which results in a flyout to right field. Let's hope that we win at least one of these picks so that we can have a profitable day.
Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller!
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