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We are now four weeks into the MLB season and some interesting trends are beginning to emerge with the rookie class of 2021. The pitching has been better than expected, but the hitters have been a disappointment outside of a handful of (unexpected) players.
There have been fewer than 10 hitters that have produced better-than-average offensive results (minimum 40 plate appearances) with five hitters producing elite results: Yermin Mercedes, Jazz Chisholm, Zach McKinstry, Phillip Evans, and Dylan Carlson. The last two players have since graduated from this list. On the pitching side, we’ve seen strong performances from freshmen in starting rotations and in bullpens although, with fewer appearances than the hitters, it’s more difficult to separate the pretenders from the elite options.
To be eligible for this list, hitters must have less than 130 ABs at the MLB level. Pitchers must have fewer than 50 innings pitched. Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena, previously ranked first overall on this list, had graduated but he remains the early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Phillip Evans has also graduated.
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Top Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball
These prospect rankings are for 2021 redraft leagues.
| Ranking | Player | Pos | Team | Age | ETA |
| 1 | Ian Anderson | SP | ATL | 22 | APRIL |
| 2 | Jazz Chisholm | SS | MIA | 23 | APRIL |
| 3 | Jarred Kelenic | OF | SEA | 21 | MAY |
| 4 | Trevor Rogers | SP | MIA | 22 | APRIL |
| 5 | Wander Franco | SS | TB | 20 | MAY |
| 6 | Yermin Mercedes | C/DH | CWS | 28 | APRIL |
| 7 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | PIT | 24 | INJURED |
| 8 | Casey Mize | SP | DET | 23 | APRIL |
| 9 | Andrew Vaughn | 1B/LF | CWS | 22 | APRIL |
| 10 | Triston McKenzie | SP | CLE | 23 | APRIL |
| 11 | Tarik Skubal | SP | DET | 24 | APRIL |
| 12 | Akil Baddoo | OF | DET | 22 | APRIL |
| 13 | Zach McKinstry | 2B/OF | LAD | 25 | APRIL |
| 14 | Jonathan India | 2B | CIN | 24 | APRIL |
| 15 | Emmanuel Clase | RP | CLE | 23 | APRIL |
| 16 | Dane Dunning | SP | TEX | 26 | APRIL |
| 17 | Brandon Marsh | OF | LAA | 23 | MAY |
| 18 | Michael Kopech | RP | CWS | 24 | APRIL |
| 19 | James Karinchak | RP | CLE | 25 | APRIL |
| 20 | Jo Adell | OF | LAA | 21 | MAY |
| 21 | Tejay Antone | P | CIN | 27 | APRIL |
| 22 | Ryan Weathers | RP | SD | 21 | APRIL |
| 23 | Huascar Ynoa | SP | ATL | 22 | APRIL |
| 24 | MacKenzie Gore | SP | SD | 22 | MAY |
| 25 | Garrett Crochet | RP | CWS | 21 | APRIL |
| 26 | Alex Kirilloff | OF | MIN | 23 | MAY |
| 27 | Nate Pearson | SP | TOR | 24 | MAY |
| 28 | Luis Patino | SP | TB | 21 | JUNE |
| 29 | Tanner Houck | SP | BOS | 24 | JUNE |
| 30 | Victor Gonzalez | RP | LAD | 25 | APRIL |
| 31 | Sixto Sanchez | SP | MIA | 22 | INJURED |
| 32 | Luis Garcia | P | HOU | 24 | APRIL |
| 33 | Bobby Dalbec | 1B | BOS | 25 | APRIL |
| 34 | Julian Merryweather | RP | TOR | 29 | INJURED |
| 35 | Taylor Trammell | OF | SEA | 23 | APRIL |
| 36 | Logan Gilbert | SP | SEA | 23 | MAY |
| 37 | Chris Rodriguez | RP | LAA | 22 | APRIL |
| 38 | Tyler Stephenson | C | CIN | 24 | APRIL |
| 39 | Taylor Widener | SP | ARZ | 26 | APRIL |
| 40 | Bobby Bradley | 1B | CLE | 24 | MAY |
| 41 | Garrett Whitlock | RP | BOS | 24 | APRIL |
| 42 | Spencer Howard | SP | PHI | 24 | MAY |
| 43 | Joey Bart | C | SF | 24 | JUNE |
| 44 | Vidal Brujan | IF/OF | TB | 23 | JUNE |
| 45 | Nolan Jones | 3B | CLE | 22 | JUNE |
| 46 | Jarren Duran | OF | BOS | 24 | JUNE |
| 47 | Josh Palacios | OF | TOR | 25 | APRIL |
| 48 | Brent Rooker | OF | MIN | 26 | INJURED |
| 49 | Alejandro Kirk | C | TOR | 22 | APRIL |
| 50 | Daulton Jefferies | SP | OAK | 25 | JUNE |
Top 10 Prospects for 2021
1. Ian Anderson, SP: Anderson will likely graduate from this list within the next week when he surpasses the 50-inning mark for his MLB career, but he’s been one of the top young arms since reaching the majors in 2020. However, his command has been inconsistent this season.
2. Jazz Chisholm, 2B: I’ll admit that I was wrong about Chisholm entering the 2021 season. His approach at the plate has improved dramatically since last season and he’s been absolutely electric at the plate and in the field.
3. Jarred Kelenic, OF: Tick tock, Tick tock. The Kelenic countdown is likely nearing its end.
4. Trevor Rogers, SP: The Marlins organization deserves huge kudos for the work its done since installing Kim Ng as general manager. The team just has a different feel to it and the young players are starting to more consistently turn their impressive tools into results at the MLB level. Rogers has been more wild than normal, but the 37% strikeout rate is impressive.
5. Wander Franco, 3B/SS: Like with Jarred Kelenic, Franco may not be far off. With the big league club off to a slow start in the standings, the top prospect could provide a much-needed spark.
6. Yermin Mercedes, DH/C: Mercedes has been by far the best rookie hitter in the major leagues with a 266 wRC+ and his approach at the plate has been outstanding. Interestingly, he always produced strong offensive numbers in the minors and was let go by both the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles — two clubs that have struggled to produce their own homegrown talent.
7. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: Hayes remains in suspended animation while rehabbing his wrist injury.
8. Casey Mize, SP: Mize's season could really go either way as he’s been a little lucky through three starts this season. I’m a little more optimistic than I was about his 2021 season, but he’s not that far removed from being absolutely terrible this spring. He also allowed three home runs to Oakland hitters on Saturday.
9. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/LF: Vaughn has had a very slow start to the year while being asked to play an unfamiliar position. We need to remain patient for another week or two given that he has an 18% walk rate. His exit velocities have also been up in recent days, which should signal something better is on the way.
10. Triston McKenzie, SP: I remain worried about McKenzie’s 92-mph average velocity, but his ability to command four different offerings helps him succeed even when he’s missing the 94-95 mph velocity he showed earlier in his career.
Prospects 11-20
11. Tarik Skubal, SP: This young southpaw has been wildly inconsistent, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. Like Casey Mize above, Skubal could really go either way, but I remain optimistic that he’ll iron things out.
12. Akil Baddoo, OF: Baddoo’s results have been outstanding so far this season as a Rule 5 pick, but the plate approach (39% K rate, 3% BB rate) suggests a decline could be imminent. With disappointing results from the outfield so far in 2021, the Twins would no doubt love to have a redo on the decision to leave Baddoo off the 40-man roster last winter.
13. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF: McKinstry seems to be slowly pulling away from Gavin Lux in the battle for the starting role at second base. He also has the added ability to play the outfield. McKinstry has never been a consistently strong offensive performer in the minors, but he could be a late bloomer.
14. Jonathan India, 2B: The Reds' rookie infielder has continued his eye-opening performance from the spring, but aside from a strong batting average, he’s not providing much power or base running benefits.
15. Emmanuel Clase, RP: Clase appears to have overthrown James Karinchak for save opportunities thanks to his 100 mph fastball and above-average slider.
16. Dane Dunning, SP: Dunning has been an excellent starter for the Rangers early in the season with outstanding command and control. He’s also striking out batters at a rate above 32%. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as Casey Mize or Tarik Skubal, but he has a higher floor.
17. Brandon Marsh, OF: The Angels are off to a decent start, but could use some help in the outfield now that Dexter Fowler is out for the year and the recent replacement options have been underwhelming.
18. Michael Kopech, RP: Kopech has been outstanding in relief and he’s expressed comfort with the role.
19. James Karinchak, RP: Karinchak has been passed by Emmanuel Clase for save opportunities, but the 25-year-old reliever has still been racking up the holds. He also out-pitched his teammate on Saturday while striking out the side.
20. Jo Adell, OF: As mentioned above, the Angels could use some outfield help. However, it looks like Brandon Marsh might get the first opportunity. Adell could use a month or two of Triple-A experience to work on his contact issues.
Prospects 21-30
21. Tejay Antone, RP: Antone has been excellent this season, as I expected, despite battling injuries in the spring. He threw another 1 2/3 innings of shutout baseball on Saturday and has allowed just two hits with a 12-2 K-BB rate in 8 1/3 innings this season. He needs to be in the starting rotation.
22. Ryan Weathers, P: Weathers received his first start of the year on Friday after opening the season in the bullpen. He pitched 3 2/3 shutout innings, but his control has been wavering lately. He might be better suited for a relief role than starting this early in his career.
23. Huascar Ynoa, SP: Just 22, Ynoa has been a revelation so far this season with a K-BB of 20-3 in 16 innings for Atlanta. However, his command hasn’t been as good and he’s allowed four home runs, which is something to closely monitor.
24. MacKenzie Gore, SP: As expected, the club’s pitching has been solid and Dinelson Lamet’s return is on the horizon. Gore may get his feet wet at the MLB level in 2021 by pitching out of the bullpen, but it would take a major injury for him to crack the rotation.
25. Garrett Crochet, RP: So far in the early going, Crochet’s fastball velocity has been down about 4 mph compared to 2020, so that bears watching.
26. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Kirilloff was up recently for a doubleheader, but the Twins haven’t shown much interest in giving him a fair shot at playing time at the MLB level. The club’s outfield has been hit hard by injuries and inconsistencies, so he should get that shot soon.
27. Nate Pearson, SP: Pearson is still working his way back from an injury suffered in the spring. Even when he does return, the club will likely handle him with kid gloves.
28. Luis Patino, SP: The Rays are being cautious with all of their pitchers that are nearly ready for the Show and are monitoring innings closely. Patino likely won’t see meaningful big league innings until the second half of the season.
29. Tanner Houck, SP: The Red Sox club is surging and getting solid pitching overall. Veterans Martin Perez and Garrett Richards represent weak spots in the starting rotation, which could eventually provide an opportunity for Houck to be summoned from the minors.
30. Victor Gonzalez, RP: Prior to the season, I identified Gonzalez as an intriguing sleeper for the 2021 season and he’s been used in key situations already for the Dodgers. He’s still inducing a ton of ground ball, but his strikeout rate has been down.
Prospects 31-40
31. Sixto Sanchez, SP: Sanchez remains in purgatory with a shoulder injury, although he has been throwing at the alternate training site.
32. Luis Garcia, P: Garcia has pitched as both a starter and a reliever in the early going. He’s done pretty well and is utilizing at least five different pitches to get the job done.
33. Bobby Dalbec, 1B: Dalbec’s cold stretch continues. Luckily, the club has been performing well through his struggles so it lessens the pressure on him and buys time to get things working again.
34. Julian Merryweather, RP: The oft-injured pitcher is out again with what manager Charlie Montoyo referred to as a longer-term injury to his oblique.
35. Taylor Trammell, OF: As of Saturday, Trammell had just one hit in his last five games. His continued struggles could open up the door for Jarred Kelenic.
36. Logan Gilbert, SP: The club has received some solid pitching performances, but the staff is thin enough that it’s easy to see an opportunity emerging for Gilbert sooner rather than later. He has the stuff and the pitching ability to settle in quickly at the MLB level.
37. Chris Rodriguez, RP: After years of battling injuries, Rodriguez finally has a chance to show off his plus stuff and he’s averaging 97 mph with his fastball out of the bullpen. It’s possible he could see starts in the second half of the year if things continue to go well.
38. Tyler Stephenson, C: Stephenson would be ranked much higher if he wasn’t in a time share with Tucker Barnhart. He has a 157 wRC+ through nine games.
39. Taylor Widener, SP: Widener is a high-floor, low-ceiling starter that has performed pretty well so far, albeit it with a below-average strikeout rate.
40. Bobby Bradley, 1B: Cleveland’s offense remains putrid, but Bradley is stuck at the alternate training site despite outperforming Jake Bauers (11 wRC+) in the spring. Apparently, the club doesn't need a player with 20-30 homer pop.
Prospects 41-50
41. Garrett Whitlock, RP: Whitlock has been a revelation for the Red Sox as a Rule 5 pick from the winter. He's providing lots of innings out of the bullpen, throwing strikes, and has an impressive K-BB of 9-0 in 6 1/3 innings.
42. Spencer Howard, SP: Howard was recently recalled as the 27th man for a doubleheader, but he was wild and allowed two hits and a walk in one inning of work. On the plus side, he was averaging more than 96 mph with his heater.
43. Joey Bart, C: Bart likely went on high alert over the weekend when Buster Posey was hit by a pitch and underwent an x-ray on his elbow. The results came back negative, so Bart likely isn’t looking at any immediate MLB action.
44. Vidal Brujan, 2B/OF: A number of Rays hitters have gone into hitting slumps recently, so Brujan owners should be on alert in case the club starts looking for a way to spark the offense.
45. Nolan Jones, 3B: Like Bradley above, Jones is working out at the alternate training site while Cleveland's offense flounders badly as one of the worst in the majors.
46. Jarren Duran, OF: Put up your hand if, at the beginning of the season, you saw Boston turning into the best hitting team in baseball for the month of April. No one? The success is great news for everyone in Boston unless you’re a prospect hoping to break into the majors. Duran will likely have to wait for an injury to open up an opportunity for him.
47. Josh Palacios, OF: Injuries created an opportunity for Palacios and he has looked good. Still, when everyone in Toronto is healthy, he’ll likely move back to a fourth outfielder’s role (He’s performed better than Jonathan Davis) or will be shipped back to the alternate training site.
48. Alejandro Kirk, C: Kirk opened the year in a nasty slump, but he’s shown signs of coming out of it recently. He has hits in four straight games and has been producing above-average exit velocities. Still, Danny Jansen is seeing the bulk of the playing time behind the plate.
49. Brent Rooker, OF: Rooker is currently on the injured list, but he should get another MLB opportunity once he’s healthy.
50. Daulton Jefferies, SP: Jefferies hasn’t pitched much in his pro career due to injuries, so the A’s will likely be cautious with his innings in 2021 and it’s easier to control those at the alternate training site.
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