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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and the Football Team along with the Texans and the Lions and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Detroit Lions playing host to the Houston Texans and the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Washington Football Team.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
Lions vs Texans: More or Less Contest
- Deshaun Watson OVER 302.5 passing yards
- Matthew Stafford OVER 278.5 passing yards
The Texans are going to be without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, but that doesn’t matter because Watson is cooking once again. Excluding the rain fest in Cleveland, Watson has thrown for at least 300 yards in six of the last seven games. Detroit is allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game. Watson doesn’t have all of his weapons, but he has enough of them.
This one is the tougher call of the two because Stafford is still without some of his top weapons, namely Kenny Golladay (Quad), but he still has that gunslinger mentality. The Texans allow an average of 252 yards per game through the air, but, at home on Thanksgiving, Stafford can get it done in a shootout with Watson.
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Lions vs Texans: More or Less Contest
- Deshaun Watson OVER 302.5 passing yards
- Marvin Jones OVER 58.5 receiving yards
We already went through this one, but, for some additional information, Watson still has Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks at the receiver position. He also has running back Duke Johnson Jr. in the backfield, who is one of the NFL’s best pass-catching backs. If he can’t get over this mark, it will be pretty surprising.
This one is banking on the work of Stafford. If running back D’Andre Swift misses this game, Stafford will have just Jones and T.J. Hockenson as reliable targets. This number isn’t crazy high, and Jones should be able to get it with at least one big reception. Outside of two games this season, he’s gone for at least 23 yards, and he’s gone for at least 50 in five outings. With a lack of competition, this should be achievable.
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Cowboys vs Football Team: More or Less Contest
- Antonio Gibson OVER 60.5 rushing yards
- CeeDee Lamb OVER 58.5 receiving yards
This mark isn’t crazy high, and it’s up in the air right now with his health. However, we expect him to play. Against this Cowboys Defense, he can crush this mark with the workload that he has been receiving. In the previous matchup with the Cowboys, he had 20 carries for 128 yards, which was his first game of at least 100 yards. In a game that shouldn’t be a blowout, he should get to this mark.
If there was a different quarterback under center, I’d have my doubts. Andy Dalton showed last week that he can still keep an offense on schedule, and that will be true this week for Lamb. Lamb’s mark of 58.5 receiving yards is some out of the water number, and he’s shown great run after catch ability this year to hit it. As the team’s first or second read, he receives consistent enough work to have confidence in this mark.
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